Younger/smaller businesses have the option to use the less expensive open
systems, because they don't need the more powerful IBM mainframe.  Like
IBM's mainframes, each generation of open systems grow more powerful, has
more features, etc. So as those new businesses grow, they can expect their
open systems to grow with them. They may not need to go through the pain of
migration to different platform. These companies may have a significant cost
advantage over the older and larger companies.

Based on http://www.census.gov/econ/smallbus.html, there are around 28
million businesses in the US.  About 3/4 of those businesses have no payroll
(e.g., self-employed persons) and only account for 3.4% of business
receipts. This means that about 7 million businesses with a payroll produce
the US's GDP.  The Fortune 500 only produces 15% of the GDP.  Somewhere I
read that on average Fortune 500 companies only remain on the list for 75
years before being displaced. If that holds true, then in 75 years, half of
the current Fortune 500 may be replaced by companies that are currently
using open systems. So perhaps only 50% of Fortune 500 may run on an IBM
mainframe.  Change seems to be happening more rapidly, so it may much less
than 75 years to replace 50% of Fortune 500.  

Don

> -----Original Message-----
> From: IBM Mainframe Discussion List [mailto:[email protected]]
> On Behalf Of Mike Schwab
> Sent: Sunday, June 09, 2013 12:58 AM
> To: [email protected]
> Subject: Re: Why does IBM keep saying things like this:
> 
> When somebody says the mainframe is dying, I like to say 95% of the
> Fortune 500 run on a IBM mainframe.  And their applications
> absolutely, positively, cannot run on open systems, because they
> require a much higher transaction rate than what open systems can run.
>  Some of the smaller mainframe shops have migrated off, but a lot of
> them were extremely painful.
> 
> --
> Mike A Schwab, Springfield IL USA
> Where do Forest Rangers go to get away from it all?
> 
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