> -----Original Message-----
> From: Murray S. Kucherawy
> Sent: Tuesday, February 08, 2011 4:00 PM
> To: 'Rolf E. Sonneveld'
> Cc: [email protected] WG
> Subject: RE: [ietf-dkim] Interesting recent statistics
> 
> > Good news! Although... we don't know whether the increase is due to 
> > spammers that adopt DKIM or legit
> > senders adopting DKIM.
> 
> We have some hints in the data, since I have some correlation between
> DKIM-specific message data and SpamAssassin results.  I just need to
> build the right SQL query.  I'll post again when I have that.

Here you go (remember, February is incomplete and August was probably skewed as 
the collection system rolled out):

+----------+--------+------+-------+
| count(*) | spammy | year | month |
+----------+--------+------+-------+
|       56 |      0 | 2010 |     8 |
|       19 |      1 | 2010 |     8 |
|      282 |      0 | 2010 |     9 |
|      548 |      1 | 2010 |     9 |
|      133 |      0 | 2010 |    10 |
|      212 |      1 | 2010 |    10 |
|       54 |      0 | 2010 |    11 |
|       80 |      1 | 2010 |    11 |
|       60 |      0 | 2010 |    12 |
|       51 |      1 | 2010 |    12 |
|       35 |      0 | 2011 |     1 |
|      114 |      1 | 2011 |     1 |
|       23 |      0 | 2011 |     2 |
|       76 |      1 | 2011 |     2 |
+----------+--------+------+-------+

So spammer adoption is outpacing legit adoption (except for December), 
according to the criterion that a domain is "spammy" if SpamAssassin thought at 
least 25% of signed mail from that domain is spam.  (Changing it to 50% barely 
changed the count(*) column at all.)  This is a count of new domains only, per 
month.

That report was based on the From: domain; keying instead on the "d=" domain, 
the result is almost exactly the same:

+----------+--------+------+-------+
| count(*) | spammy | year | month |
+----------+--------+------+-------+
|       37 |      0 | 2010 |     8 |
|       17 |      1 | 2010 |     8 |
|      284 |      0 | 2010 |     9 |
|      538 |      1 | 2010 |     9 |
|      122 |      0 | 2010 |    10 |
|      203 |      1 | 2010 |    10 |
|       44 |      0 | 2010 |    11 |
|       78 |      1 | 2010 |    11 |
|       54 |      0 | 2010 |    12 |
|       51 |      1 | 2010 |    12 |
|       31 |      0 | 2011 |     1 |
|      112 |      1 | 2011 |     1 |
|       18 |      0 | 2011 |     2 |
|       74 |      1 | 2011 |     2 |
+----------+--------+------+-------+

In any case, there is a constant stream of new legit domains as well, which is 
what we really need.

-MSK

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