Of course one could also use triangulation as a method for calculating results. After all, is that not the norm for figuring out a Pyramid ? P -----Original Message----- From: James P. Salsman To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: 5/30/01 10:34 PM Subject: Re: money >... Do I calculate return using an exponential curve or the S-shaped > logistics curve? Since the number of respondents is not infinite at present, but is theoretically unbounded over time, you have to use a sigmoid curve, but not this logistical sigmoid: Y = a + b / (1 + exp(-c*(X - d))) That one is wrong because the number of respondents is constantly growing, because all those people who have gotten rich can support large families. Instead, you really want the asymmetrical Gompertz sigmoid: Y = a + b*exp(-exp(-c*(X-d))) IN REALITY: LESS THAN A HUNDREDTH OF A PERCENT OF THOSE WHO SEND PONZI SCHEME CHAIN LETTERS EVER MAKE A CENT ON THEM, AND MANY OF THOSE PEOPLE END UP IN COURT FACING SERIOUS CHARGES. PLEASE IGNORE THEM. Cheers, James
