On Tuesday, May 7, 2002, at 12:00  AM, munker wrote:

> For the home user however, the situation is, and I think I'm like many,
> many others, that I've spent enough money on computer hardware, and I'm 
> not
> an endless source of cash.
>
> I also think that starting with the Bondi Blue iMac that computers 
> from a
> hardware viewpoint have enough power to do pretty much what the home 
> user
> is going to do. Which I think is Internet, Word Processing, 
> Spreadsheets,
> and Photography.

That's what the home user wants to do today. In 1984, home users did 
their cook books. 5 years ago, people typed (real) letters and toyed 
around with Internet. Today, home users type email, squeeze every living 
drop out of the internet, burn music CDs, and watch movies.

Who knows about 5 years from now? Burning DVDs is semi-novelty right 
now, just becoming part of the home user experience. It'll most 
certainly be more prevalent. The same is true about X10, controlling 
your house with your computer. What else? Who knows.... there's bound to 
be plenty on the horizon, merely a year (or hell, even a few months) 
away that everyone and their dog will want to do.... but won't be able 
to on a 6 month old iMac, much less a 4 year old one.

> Hence home users should not need to upgrade. The computer has evolved 
> to a
> state entirely satisfactory for most of their needs. Bad news for Intel 
> and
> Motorola.

Only if the market doesn't evolve any further than it has today. If all 
people tomorrow want to do is what they were doing yesterday, then 
Peter's correct. But we're all human, and we like to do new things... 
markets evolve, otherwise we'd all still be using Edison brand tungsten 
light bulbs.

> But today's computers are different. Entirely satisfactory for that as
> well. So the consumer feels the hardware has evolved, and feels a
> resentment if someone is going to make that hardware obsolete for the 
> sake
> of, what he sees as, a few minor new features.

What are minor features to one man, is a compelling new feature to 
another. Who's to say?

Todays computers are entirely satisfactory today, for doing what 
everyone wants to do with them today. A Mac Plus was entirely 
satisfactory for doing whatever it was people wanted to do with them 
(mostly, type letters and books, and their recipes). An iMac won't be 
satisfactory forever.... there will eventually be a new 'killer app' 
that everyone and their dogs and their dog's fleas will want to do. Have 
you ever tried burning a music CD on a Mac Plus? :)


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