I'd agree with you except that there is some writing on the wall that  
makes me think ARM will continue to be an increasing threat.  We're  
now reaching the stage where we blur the line between mobile and  
laptop/desktop OSes.  Android runs on everything these days.  Apple  
ported OS X to run on ARM.  We have laptops that run ARM chips.  Etc.

The next ten years in computing will be very interesting :)

--  
Jarett T. DeAngelis, MS
Sr. IT Support Engineer
Distributed Support Services, College of Arts and Letters
Office of Information Technology
938 Flanner Hall
University of Notre Dame

On Sep 8, 2009, at 3:12 PM, Bruce Johnson  
<[email protected]> wrote:

>
>
> On Sep 8, 2009, at 11:46 AM, Jarett DeAngelis wrote:
>
>>
>> Picture ten years down the road: 2GHz ARM chips with large amounts of
>> instruction-level parallelism, out-of-order execution, etc.  It would
>> be a formidable chip and probably blow x86 out of the water clock for
>> clock (and more importantly, performance/price).
>
> You deeply underestimate Intel, I expect.
>
> Ten years down the line Intel will have advanced as far, too.
> EVERYTHING will be much more powerful.
>
> Historically, people (including me!) were saying the exact same thing
> about Intel with the advent of RISC, of the PPC, of AMD, and here we
> are with Intel on the top of the performance, price and usage pile.
>
> Still.
>
> AMD has come close, but Intel's move to 45nm really let them move
> ahead of AMD.
>
> Yes, you can get some high performance POWER chips. But IBM doesn't
> want to make them so you can run a laptop off of them.
>
> The staggering rate of performance increase of Macs since the Intel
> switch is proof enough to me that Apple chose the right track.
>
> -- 
> Bruce Johnson
> University of Arizona
> College of Pharmacy
> Information Technology Group
>
> Institutions do not have opinions, merely customs
>
>
>
> >

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