Hi Sean I guess we need to rationalize, apologies in advance for the Harvard Business School lingo but we need to fight fire with fire. I will cc this to SU-USA and imusa too as I am interested in getting general feedback. Before we jump ship and all that if we see things in perspective we are basically back to where we were in '91 before the floatation, owned by one man. Replace Martin Edwards with Malcolm Glazer and in reality there is little difference, other than Glazer is much more commercially minded and will not just step over the fans like martin did, but he will probably step and do a dance too while he's at it. I have been thinking of this a lot and I think I have a way to have a debt free Man United in fans hands entirely in 10 years. As I see it we have three scenarios at present - all this assuming he gets the 75% he needs - we must still fight to make sure he does not get the 75% 1. Wildly optimistic: Glazer shakes things up, the team does well again, money keeps pouring in, he actually is a good businessman and makes the team even more profitable to a level where he can service the debt and keep re-investing money in players and we continue being a solid business and a great team winning the champions league day in day out and sending abramovich back to russia. We hail Glazer as the messiah and all come back in droves groveling. Chances of that happening - on par with Man City winning a trophy and scousers stop being work shy and granny stabbers
2. More realistic: A boycott and disillusionment by hard core fans is felt but the financial effects are cancelled out with higher pricing and more aggressive merchandising. On the pitch we stay challenging at the top as he will need United competing at the top levels in order to get the TV money Still, after a bad couple of years or after a sharp spike in interest rates the debt burden becomes unserviceable and Utd are forced to start selling players, performances on the pitch suffer and we enter a downward spiral. We become a mediocre club on the pitch, but as in the 80's remain the top club because of our large following, we are able to stay solvent but glazer makes no money as all the profit goes to pay interest payments, we become a "sleeping giant" that never seriously threatens to win anything. We might occasionally flirt with relegation but even if we do go down come up quickly. Glazer becomes disillusioned and looks for an exit strategy. 3. Highly probable: Same as above but without us remaining a big club as the hard core element that stay with you through thick and thin are now following FC United who have just gained promotion to the football league with "massive" crowds cheering them on! We get relegated and maybe even become a Championship side for a long time (as Leeds were in the 80's) instead of being a yoyo club. We have no money, banks come in and we are declared bankrupt. United as we know it die for a second time. Scenario 1 is lets face it not gonna happen, even though this is what glazer thinks will happen. So we now switch to what should we do in the alternatives. We know that Glazer doesn't give a toss about football, we also know that all he wants is money. United is an investment for him. Today, based on today's numbers and projections it is valued at 300p a share. In 5 years time, as a mid table side with fans leaving in droves it will be worth a lot less. With the debt level the equity is probably going to be worth nothing, and the debtors know they cannot just strip the club and sell the assets to repay the debt as the only tangible asset will be the non-existent stadium (which will probably already have been sold and leased back with all the proceeds disappearing in interest payments) and all the players will be of the caliber of Ralph Milne and worth nothing. So we are faced with a scenario where in say 2010 there is a company called Man United, heavily in debt which is in effect worth zero or maybe $100 million because of the brand name. With the debt greater than the overall value we have what we call an insolvent company. With banks breathing down his neck glazer will sell his equity for next to nothing to get rid of this disastrous investment. What we then do is approach the debt holders and offer them points on their debt. Their current options are strip the assets and close the "company" down - which we have already seen is not viable since there are no assets. If the debt is $500 million, but the real value is $100 million, then they would accept anything over $100 million. What we then need to do is keep mobilizing, get this trust thing up and running and if things turn out how we fear they might happen then this might actually in an ironic way turn into the best thing that could have happened to Man United. We will buy all of Man United - debt free for $100 million. And quite frankly, I don't think that it will too hard to raise that sum if backed by fans and if we commit to the lenders and angel investors that we will be there and start spending money on the club again. Sponsors will return, stadiums will be filled again and TV will want to show United again and we all live happily ever after. Frankly, I will follow United into non league, I don't stop supporting them if we lose, and neither do the hard core which is why we had the biggest gates during all of liverpool's dominance. I don't mind a decade of mediocre football and even relegation if that means that in 10 years time we can buy the whole club for a fraction of what it is worth now. It might take us a little while to rebuild and repair the damage but the end result could be magnificent. So what I am proposing to all United fans is first of all lets do our best to stop him getting 75% because that will accelerate the process - the debt burden stays on him and he will have to sell his shares to pay it off menaing that we would need to buy less shares to challenge him. Failing that, a total campaign of boycott, threats (non violent of course!) against anyone or anything that will help bring him profit. Meaning, we tell Vodafone, we tell Audi, we tell Nike. No point boycotting their products individually alone or launching a nationwide boycott - the effect on their sales will be minimal - what they don't want is negative publicity so more of the sit ins in their stores, headlines of "vodafone complicit in death of British institution," "Nike customers chased away by angry mob staging sit in" headlines etc.. so that they abandon him. You can subscribe to sky but don't buy the man united games. Cancel your subscription to MUTV, buy red news not united review. Hope that we don't make the champions league (yes bizarre I know). Our goal over the next 5 years is not to win every trophy in sight but to bankrupt the "company" so that we can buy it on the cheap. When you have a parasite on you, you have to starve yourself to get rid of him (where have I heard that already.). This is a very common situation in the finance world - a stalker (in this case us) preys on a company, destabilizes it and makes it weaker so that he can then pounce on it and grab it cheaply. Every cent that we would otherwise spend on United during this time must go on buying Man United shares instead (assuming we still can). I don't think this plan is far fetched or irrealistic. It just takes time and commitment. I would be very interested to get everyone's feedback on this plan of action. Jacques Stambouli Via Trading corporation <http://www.viatrading.com> www.viatrading.com -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Sean Hennessey Sent: Thursday, May 12, 2005 2:19 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: [BostonReds] the news... * Hey Jacques - Good to hear from you, even if at these trying times. I'm not sure what we can do to help anymore - I'm not an Imusa member anymore (it was sorta ridiculous as I could never help except when I was there), nor am I really in touch with anyone in power. The only thing I can suggest is buying as many shares as you can get through Shareholders United (of which I am still a member), if there are still any to buy. I was going to write you all about this as well. It's panic situation, as far as I'm concerned. This is sorta the ultimate proof that it's all commerce, and if we can't beat it, I dunno what to do. I'm curious to what you all think? Are you gonna jump ship if we fail to keep the team public? I'm not sure I can face being a subsect of the Bucanneers. What the hell do we do?!? Speaking of which - anyone know just how serious this 'splinter team' thing is? It seems pretty pie in the sky, if you ask me... - S --- Jacques Stambouli <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Hi guys > > I know I haven't been in touch for a while and I > hope its not too late. > I'm out in Los Angeles and miss the plough, its no > fun watching games at > dawn alone! > > Sean - are you still active with IMUSA? What can we > do stateside to > help? > > Jacques Stambouli > Via Trading Corporation > 2100 Saturn Avenue > Huntington Park CA > 90255 > Tel 877 202 3616 > Fax 877 677 5975 > www.viatrading.com > > > > [Non-text portions of this message have been > removed] > > ------------------------------ Oh my God it's the funky sh*t! [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Give the gift of life to a sick child. 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