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PhD scholarship: Statistics and Computer Science

Rating and ranking sports players and teams using Minimum Message Length

[Australian Postgraduate Award (Industry): APAI
 Australian Research Council (ARC) Linkage Project LP100200865
 Chief Investigator: David Dowe, Monash University
 Industry Partner: Cadability Pty Ltd]

Location: Clayton School of Information Technology, Monash University,
Clayton (this is a suburb of Melbourne), Australia

Starting date: January 2011 or as soon as possible thereafter

Title: Rating and ranking sports players and teams using Minimum Message
Length

Project Background:
Minimum Message Length (MML) is a unifying principle in machine learning
(computer science, artificial intelligence), statistics, econometrics,
inductive inference and what many nowadays seem to call ``data mining''.
With its origins in Bayesian information theory (Wallace & Boulton,
Computer J [Oxford Univ Press], 1968), MML is now regularly published in
the statistics, philosophy and econometrics literature - including (e.g.)
J Royal Stat Soc (B) (1987a, 1987b, 1992), Brit J Philos Sci (2007,
pp79-754),
Handbook of Philos of Science - Vol. 7, Phil of Statistics (2010,
pp901-982), etc.
The information-theoretic underpinnings of MML not only make it a
statistically
invariant Bayesian form of model selection and point estimation, but they
also
make it readily amenable to combining the discrete and the continuous, such
as
(e.g.) the hybrid Bayesian networks in Comley & Dowe (2003) and
Comley & Dowe (MIT Press, April 2005).
All of this is alongside practical applications in a broad range of areas.

MML is especially effective when there is much noise in the data, model
misspecification and/or (as in the Neyman-Scott (1948) case or the case of
[single and especially multiple] latent factor analysis) the amount of data
is
comparatively small compared to the number of parameters to be estimated.

Project:  The project is on ``Rating and ranking sports players and teams
using Minimum Message Length''.  Rating systems go back at least as far as
Harkness (1949) and the better-known Elo (1961) system for rating chess
players.  More recent attempts have been made to refine these systems in a
variety of ways.  We will refine the systems further - perhaps starting with
chess but certainly going much further. This includes dealing with the
challenging (Neyman-Scott-like) situation where, for some players and teams,
there are few games per player or few games between different groups of
players.  Our enhanced modelling will be for a range of games and sports
- including advantages such as, e.g., first move (as in chess), home ground
and location, surface (as in tennis), etc.  We will apply this to rating and
ranking
individuals and teams.  We also refine how quickly ratings can change
depending upon the strength of the player.  All sorts of games and sports
could
use such better systems for rating and ranking teams.

Applicant background: Applicants should have a background - including
completing at least the equivalent of an undergraduate degree - in at least
one of mathematics, statistics, computer science and/or (information theory
and) electrical engineering.  Applicants should also be able to write
computer
programs - preferably in a variation of (e.g.) C or Java.

Further reading: See C. S. Wallace (2005)
www.csse.monash.edu.au/~dld/CSWallacePublications#MMLBook<http://www.csse.monash.edu.au/%7Edld/CSWallacePublications#MMLBook>
by the originator of MML.  For even further reading, see
one of (e.g.) Dowe, Gardner & Oppy (Brit J Philos Sci, 2007, pp709-754),
or Dowe (2008a, ``Foreword re C. S. Wallace'', Computer J, pp523-560)
or Dowe (2010a, Handbook of Philosophy of Statistics, pp901-982)
[e.g., at 
www.csse.monash.edu.au/~dld/David.Dowe.publications.html<http://www.csse.monash.edu.au/%7Edld/David.Dowe.publications.html>].

Salary: Standard PhD scholarship (Aus$26,667p.a.) accompanied by
additional top-up.

Starting date: January 2011 or as soon as possible thereafter

[Please understand that I expect many enquiries and applications, so the
more clearly applicants express themselves and the easier they make my
life :-) , the higher their probability of getting due attention.]

Enquiries: Contact David dot Dowe arroba infotech dot monash.edu dot au
www.csse.monash.edu.au/~dld/David.Dowe.publications.html<http://www.csse.monash.edu.au/%7Edld/David.Dowe.publications.html>
(www.Solomonoff85thMemorial.monash.edu.au<http://www.solomonoff85thmemorial.monash.edu.au/>
)
with clear e-mail subject line and contents.

Applications: Cover letter and application - as above - including academic
transcripts, proof (if appropriate) of English language quality (e.g., IELTS
or
TOEFL) [as this is a Monash University requirement], addressing selection
criteria, and including c.v./resume'.
If applying, please send application once - in one e-mail - and please
include
every relevant file as a separate attachment.  Again, send to
David dot Dowe arroba InfoTech dot monash.edu dot au
www.csse.monash.edu.au/~dld/David.Dowe.publications.html<http://www.csse.monash.edu.au/%7Edld/David.Dowe.publications.html>
(www.Solomonoff85thMemorial.monash.edu.au<http://www.solomonoff85thmemorial.monash.edu.au/>
)
with clear e-mail subject line and contents.

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