Agreeing with Iljitch's math here, but ...
In case people aren't already aware of it, I think the work at the
second URL below is very interesting in discussing the possible
implications of CGN, and in particular the number of outbound and
inbound ports needed per active host.
Hm, it looks like the high water marks for TCP and UDP sessions per
subscriber (including non-active subscribers) is around 20 and 40.
For our purposes we can probably assume that the UDP is lower than TCP
because UDP in this is very likely mostly DNS which shouldn't have to go
through a NAT64.
So that means a single IPv4 address can support about 3000 subscribers.
... the "planning for 500 connections per user" reference in the plenary
presentation last week was way higher than I've heard previously, but the
working number from the P2PI workshop in May was about 80 for BitTorrent,
wasn't it? So we're already looking at a factor-of-two reduction in what we
can support on one IPv4 address, before someone comes up with an even cuter
connection-use strategy...
:-(
Spencer
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