Refleksi : Apakah kalau tak pinjam bisa hidup?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c8ddb3e8-505a-11de-9530-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1 ADB grants $1bn Indonesia loan By John Aglionby in Jakarta Published: June 4 2009 01:44 | Last updated: June 4 2009 01:44 The Asian Development Bank approved on Wednesday a $1bn standby loan to Indonesia, as the country puts together a $5.5bn (?3.9bn, £3.4bn) package to bolster its ability to navigate the global financial crisis. The loan came as Bank Indonesia, the central bank, cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a four-year low of 7 per cent to stimulate growth after inflation reached a 17-month low of 6.04 per cent, year-on-year, in May. Miranda Goeltom, acting central bank governor, told the Financial Times room for further cuts existed because inflation for 2009 is expected to be around 5 per cent and inter-bank lending is starting to pick up after months of little activity. She declined to specify the time or size of the cuts Analysts say the developments reflect Indonesia's sound economic management and resilience compared to most other countries in weathering the downturn. The ADB loan is part of a public expenditure support facility. The World Bank has assigned $2bn to it, Japan $1.5bn and Australia is expected to authorise $1bn next month. It was established for Indonesia to tap if it is unable to meet its financing needs at reasonable rates via capital markets and lasts till the end of 2010. Jaseem Ahmed, an ADB director, said he was "cautiously optimistic" Indonesia would not need to access the facility, since it has already raised most of its $11bn financing needs for this year, including a $3bn sovereign bond and a $650m sukuk bond. "We do see market rates coming down and global risk appetite for countries like Indonesia increasing," he told the Financial Times. "But we're not out of the woods yet. There could be a reversal down the road and when global risk aversion goes up it affects Indonesia more than almost any other country." Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Indonesia's finance minister, told the Financial Times she is considering using the facility. "We will use it as contingent borrowing and combine it with market sources to achieve the best financing mix [of] reasonable cost and low risk," she said. Indonesia's economy grew 4.4 per cent, year-on-year, in the first quarter of 2009. This is its lowest rate in five years but much higher than any of its neighbours - most of whom are in recession. Bank Indonesia, which has cut its benchmark rate by 250 basis points since December, is forecasting economic growth this year of 3-4 per cent, while the government is expecting 4.5 per cent. Most independent analysts are predicting around 3 per cent. Indonesia has been insulated from the global crisis more than most other countries because some 60 per cent of its economy is driven by domestic consumption, its banks had virtually no exposure to the US sub-prime mortgage meltdown and inflation is under control. Exports slumped almost 30 per cent, year-on-year, in the first quarter but data released this week suggest the slide is bottoming out. Consumer confidence, as measured by Bank Indonesia, is at an 18-month high. The government has allocated Rp73,300bn ($7.2bn) as a stimulus package to help ride out the crisis. It is mostly tax cuts but also includes funds for much-needed infrastructure spending. Fauzi Ichsan, of Standard Chartered Bank, said the robust informal sector also contributes to Indonesia's economic resilience. "It's estimated the grey economy accounts for up to 40 per cent of the domestic economy and it's not properly recorded in the official data," he said. "It acts as the country's unofficial social safety net." Mrs Sri Mulyani said slow and uncertain global growth, and currency and oil price volatility would be external pressures on the economy. "[Domestically], the government transition after the [July 8 presidential] election will, at the least, slow the government's ability to respond for the next six months," she said. "[Moreover] the quality of the bureaucracy and justice reform is still a challenge for the investment climate." [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
