http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/printArticle.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=349190&version=1&template_id=37&parent_id=17
Secularist gains on PM as Iraq opens more ballot boxes
Publish Date: Tuesday,16 March, 2010, at 10:10 PM Doha Time
Reuters/Baghdad
Dressed in the colours of their national flag, Kurdish girls stand
behind graves of victims of the 1988 gas attacks, during a ceremony yesterday
marking the anniversary of the attacks in the Iraqi Kurdish town of Halabja.
Iraqi Kurds yesterday mourned the deaths of around 5,000 villagers from Halabja
who were massacred 22 years ago in chemical attacks blamed on Saddam Hussain's
forces during the Iran-Iraq war
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's lead over a secularist rival
narrowed yesterday as new results brought into focus a fragmented vote that may
mean months of political bargaining and a risky power vacuum.
Officials released more results from the March 7 poll just as twin bomb
attacks killed eight people, underscoring Iraq's vulnerability as it confronts
the possibility of major political change and US troops prepare to withdraw.
In the town of Mussayab, 60km south of the capital, the two blasts went
off within minutes of one another after attackers attached two bombs onto
passengers cars.
The blasts, a day after seven people were killed by a car bomb in western
Anbar province, raise doubts about how Iraq's fragile security will stand up
during what will likely be long, divisive talks among leading politicians to
form a government.
Maliki's mainly Shia State of Law bloc is ahead in seven of 18 provinces,
but it barely made a dent in Sunni areas, underlining Iraq's polarisation after
years of sectarian war.
Close behind is former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's Iraqiya list, a
cross-sectarian, secularist alliance that swept five largely Sunni provinces,
where resentment runs high against a Shia-led government many Sunnis feel has
shut them out.
With two-thirds of an estimated 12mn votes counted, just some 20,000
votes separate Maliki and Allawi's coalition. Definitive results could take
weeks.
One of the two blocs is likely to ally with the Iraqi National Alliance
(INA), a largely Shia bloc made up of Maliki's estranged allies, running third,
or with a partnership of Kurdish parties which dominated Iraq's Kurdish north.
Both supporters of Maliki, who has built his reputation on pulling Iraq back
from the brink of civil war, and Allawi, an urbane physician and critic of the
mainly Shia religious parties dominating Iraq since 2003, are feeling
confident. "Since State of Law has a lead over the other lists, it will be
dangling the carrot everyone will be running after," Jaber Habeeb Jaber, a
Maliki candidate, said late on Monday.
Thaer al-Naqeeb, a close aide to Allawi, said a government without
Iraqiya representation would be "difficult". "Our expectations are that we will
be the ones to form the government. In the north we are No 1 and we are in a
good position in Baghdad ... If the Iraqi people demand change and are waiting
for a change, then there should be change." One of the main drivers for the
bloody insurgency since 2003 has been political marginalisation of a
long-dominant Sunni minority. If Allawi, a secular Shia who has galvanized
Sunnis' desire to reclaim influence, is shut out of power, it could spell
trouble just as Washington halves its troop force and looks toward an end-2011
deadline for withdrawing. There is endless speculation about who might ally
with whom to form the next government, and it's also possible some electoral
alliances will splinter.
Kurds are sure to demand concessions on their priorities - ambitions to
expand their footprint in land and oil - in exchange for their support.
Despite his strong showing, many potential allies oppose a second term
for Maliki. He may have an uphill battle ahead.
Toby Dodge, an Iraq expert at the University of London, said influence
from Iraq's fellow Shia-majority neighbour Iran could be instrumental in
producing another government alliance between Maliki, the INA, and the Kurds.
"To some extent this would be a reconstitution of the collation that governed
Iraq so ineptly from 2006 to 2010."
Few things seemed to incense Iraqis more before the elections than talk
of foreign interference - Iranian, American, Syrian or Saudi. Analysts say
leading Sunni Arab states such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia would be more
comfortable with a government led by Allawi. The Iranian government, eager to
see someone representing Shia interests leading Iraq, praised the elections.
"All international supervision has confirmed the soundness of the Iraqi
elections. This is a success and we congratulate Iraqis," Foreign Ministry
spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said.
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