http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/11/world/africa/11clapper.html?_r=1&src=me&ref=world
U.S. Intelligence Chief Says Qaddafi Has Edge in Conflict By MARK MAZZETTI and DAVID E. SANGER Published: March 10, 2011 WASHINGTON - One week after President Obama demanded that Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi cede power in Libya, the president's top intelligence official predicted on Thursday, "over the longer term, that the regime will prevail" in Libya's civil war, an assessment that cast significant doubt on efforts so far by the NATO allies to drive him from power. James Clapper, the director of national intelligence, told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee that Colonel Qaddafi has a potentially decisive advantage in arms and equipment that would make itself felt as the conflict wore on. The statements by Mr. Clapper, a retired Air Force general who oversees America's 16 intelligence services, could limit the Obama administration's options. So far, only France has recognized the provisional government set up by the rebels, called the Libyan National Council. Mr. Clapper's assessment that the Libyan leader is unlikely to be dislodged by the rebels - which presumably reflects the briefings Mr. Obama and his top national security advisers have been receiving in recent days - would appear to diminish the chances that that the United States and other NATO allies would follow suit. While Mr. Obama and his aides have spoken of military options, including imposing a no-flight zone over Libya, they have so far limited their concrete actions to imposing new sanctions, freezing assets and monitoring Libyan military communications traffic. They have stopped short of direct military action, even the jamming of communications lines, and Mr. Clapper's assessment may push both American officials and some allies to the conclusion that efforts to terminate Col. Qaddafi's 41-year rule in Libya are futile. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton did say on Thursday that she would planned to meet with Libyan rebel leaders, perhaps during her travel to Tunisia and Egypt next week to press for democratic changes in those countries, or perhaps in Paris or back in Washington. But Mrs. Clinton, in testimony to a subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee, appeared far more cautious about military intervention than she was a week ago, aligning herself more closely with the warnings offered by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. She wrapped her warnings in calls for international authority to impose a no-flight zone, presumably from the United Nations Security Council, which seems unlikely to act soon, if at all. "Absent international authorization, the United States acting alone would be stepping into a situation the consequences of which would be unforeseeable," Mrs. Clinton told a House Appropriations subcommittee. Past no-flight zones had had mixed results, she said. One imposed over Iraq in the 1990's, she noted, "did not prevent Saddam Hussein from slaughtering people on the ground and it did not get him out of office," she said, according to news agencies. Nor did a no-flight zone in Bosnia drive the Serbian leader, Slobodan Milosovic, from power "until we had troops on the ground," she added. In his testimony, Mr. Clapper said that the rebel groups were "in for a tough row, because a very important consideration here for the regime is that, by design, Qaddafi intentionally designed the military so that those select units loyal to him are the most luxuriously equipped and the best-trained." Dismissing the idea that the Libyan leader would step down the way the leaders of Egypt and Tunisia did, he added: "We believe that Qaddafi is in this for the long haul. He appears to be hunkering down for the duration." In Brussels, top representatives to NATO on Thursday were debating whether to impose a no-flight zone in the country, an idea that might lose support if European governments think that American spy agencies believe Colonel Qaddafi is likely to defeat the rebels. President Obama has said that the Libyan president has lost legitimacy with his people, and should step down. Mr. Clapper, who has an extensive background in intelligence, has met regularly with President Obama since the turmoil in the Middle East began, and he often delivers the daily intelligence briefing at the White House. Some of his public comments in recent months have raised eyebrows in the White House. Last month, his office issued a clarification after Mr. Clapper told the House Intelligence Committee that the Muslim Brotherhood, a force in the tensions coursing through Egypt, was "largely secular." [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
