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Aug 31, 2012 Indonesia short of naval muscle By Vignesh Ram Southeast Asia was an important front line in the United States-led fight against communism during the Cold War. That emphasis impacted on the foreign policies of many regional countries, including Indonesia, which emerged from a post-independence period of left-leaning nationalism to become one of the US's key counter-communism allies. Now, Indonesia is emerging again as a crucial player as US foreign policy "pivots" towards Asia, a geostrategic shift aimed at counterbalancing China's rising power in the region. The geographical location of the sprawling archipelago, through which the majority of the world's trade flows, includes a strategic chokepoint at the Malacca Strait for China's energy imports in a potential conflict with the US. China has acknowledged this risk as its "Malacca dilemma", forcing its strategic planners to look for alternate routes for his fuel supplies, including a planned pipeline through Myanmar. Many analysts view China's growing assertiveness in the potentially oil and gas rich South China Sea as indication of its desire to secure energy sources in the region and mitigate its dependence on distant Middle Eastern imports. Whether Indonesia would be willing to play such a role in a potential conflict is a wild card. Even if it were so inclined, its not clear to strategic analysts that it would have the capacity to project such power due to years of under-spending on defense, including for crucial naval capabilities. The 1997-98 Asian financial crisis brought about significant geopolitical changes in the region, including the end of more than three decades of authoritarian rule in Indonesia. The crisis also pushed Indonesia into a period of chaos that eventually reshaped its politics, seen today in President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's more democratic order and outward looking foreign policy. To recover from the economic and financial crisis, it was essential that trade and commerce experienced no hindrances as the country bid to export its way back to economic health. The safety and security of nearby sea lanes, long prone to piracy of global shipments, became more important to ensure smooth trade and later took on new significance in the context of the US-led global war on terrorism. This was one of the areas sought out by external powers, including the US, to assert greater influence over the region's strategic order. However, strong opposition by mainly Indonesia and Malaysia kept external players at bay as they tried to find a regional solution to the piracy problem. In 2004, what emerged was MALSINDO (an acronym made of the initials of Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia) which engaged in joint operations to combat piracy in their strategic waterways. Though the exercises were publicly portrayed as a success, doubts remained as to how far they could be stretched within existing trilateral frameworks and how much the countries were willing to allocate financially. These joint operations raised some important questions about the capabilities of Indonesia to project power in the region in relation to its size. Indonesia is a huge country of over 17,000 islands, stretching near to the Indian Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the east, to the northern Australian coast to the south, and to the north towards the furthest southern reaches of the Philippines. Indonesia is thus a major part of the geography, and a key driver of the geopolitics, of Southeast Asia. Yet its power projection capabilities remain geographically asymmetrical. The Indonesian navy (TNI AL) has been slowly but steadily increasingly its procurements and spending, which are expected to rise to US$8.1 billion in 2012-13 from US$7 billion in 2011-12. That is a small sum considering the country's vast territory and population - and rising geostrategic importance in the context of the US's pivot strategy. In comparison, smaller states in the region such as Singapore spend more. (The city-state has earmarked $12.3 billion for defense spending in 2012-13). Indonesia's outlays are also considerably less vis-a-vis larger countries such as India, which is set to spend around $40 billion on defense over the same period. Analysts believe Indonesia must beef up its naval forces if it is to maintain a strong and effective presence in the region, particularly in the context of China's economic and military rise. Jakarta carries out various joint exercises with neighboring countries such as India, which help to maintain cordial relations in the region but do not do enough to bolster its overall strategic position due to sensitivities over sovereignty. As one of the original founders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Indonesia remains a strong proponent of keeping Southeast Asian regionalism intact. Its proactive role as last year's chair of ASEAN saw many regional successes, namely its mediating role in the Cambodia-Thailand conflict over the contested Preah Vihear temple area. Its active support for East Timor, formerly a part of Indonesia, to become an ASEAN member underlined the country's new role as a force for peace and stability in the region. Indonesia's peacemaker role was on display again in July when its Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa engaged in "shuttle diplomacy" to resolve an intra-ASEAN rift that had broken out into the open during a foreign ministers' meeting held in Cambodia, by then the NATO chair. Member states had failed to reach a consensus and issue a final statement due to divisions over how to respond to China's growing assertiveness over contested territories in the South China Sea. That diplomatic role masks Indonesia's own strategic concerns about China. The two countries had turbulent relations during the Cold War period, aggravated by Indonesia's bloody purge of hundreds of thousands of communist sympathizers in the late 1960s. Relations were normalized in 1990, but a territorial dispute over the Natuna Islands kept relations on edge until 1995, when Beijing renounced its claim to the islands but not the nearby gas fields. Indonesia has quietly asserted its claim to the fields through joint development foreign energy companies, including from the United States. Unlike the situation of its ASEAN neighbors, particularly Vietnam and the Philippines, who remain embroiled with China in disputes over the Spratly Islands and other island chains in the South China Sea, Indonesia's claim to the Natuna gas fields has gone largely unquestioned by China. On the diplomatic front, Indonesia now plays a key role in ensuring regional peace and stability and keeping ASEAN reasonably united amid pro-and anti-China sentiments among its member states. At the same time, the country is promoting its image as a mature and responsible world power, one that willingly cooperates and engages with all major global powers. To consolidate these positions and simultaneously demonstrate a credible deterrent to Chinese expansionism, Indonesia needs to bolster quickly and substantially its defensive capabilities. As tensions mount between China and other ASEAN states, and the US places new priority on Asian security, a strong and capable Indonesia represents the region's best hope for maintaining peace and stability. Vignesh Ram is a PhD research scholar at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations at Manipal University, India. His areas of interest include Southeast Asia and its regional dynamics and, Indian foreign policy towards the region (Copyright 2012 Vignesh Ram [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
