http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/commentary/are-indonesias-ordinary-folks-backing-prabowo/572542
Are Indonesia's Ordinary Folks Backing Prabowo? John McBeth - Straits Times | February 19, 2013 Gerindra chairman Prabowo Subianto is a contender for Indonesia's 2014 presidential election. (JG Photo) At the end of a lengthy interview in his Jakarta home a couple of months ago, Indonesia's former president B.J. Habibie, still chipper and engaged in his 76th year, asked me what I thought would be the outcome of the 2014 presidential election. I boldly suggested that if General Prabowo Subianto's Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) could put together an alliance that would carry him across the 20 percent electoral threshold needed to nominate a candidate, he would have it won. Habibie and his associates around the table all uniformly scoffed at the notion, arguing that Gerinda would have to team up with a major party, such as the Indonesian Democratic Party - Struggle (PDI-P). And that, they insisted, wasn't about to happen. It was a typical reaction from the Jakarta elite. Just mention the retired special forces general and faces screw up in distaste. The talk quickly turns to either his human rights record or his hair-trigger temper which has already led to several desertions. Habibie has his own strong reasons for disliking Prabowo, even if they were once friends. He has always accused him of attempting a coup d'etat after the then-vice-president took over from the fallen president Suharto in May 1998. The problem, of course, is that all this has nothing to do with anything. Jakarta does not elect Indonesia's president. Voters from the Java hinterland are the decisive voice — and they look on things differently, as I discovered on a road trip in 2009. Back then, Prabowo was the last-minute choice of a running mate to former president and PDI-P leader Megawati Sukarnoputri. The pair ultimately failed miserably to defeat President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who had deposed her five years earlier. But the headline news for me was how popular Prabowo seemed to be among the rural folk of Central and East Java. Quite apart from dismissing his human rights record as old history, some of the PDI-P faithful even thought he should have been the candidate instead of Megawati. Prabowo's poll numbers suggest that hasn't changed all that much, with his position as chairman of the Indonesian Farmers Association keeping him front and center on the national stage. It is possible he could even split the PDI-P vote. In the world of real politics, Jakarta is just the wrong place to analyze a direct presidential election where the so-called orang kecil, the little people out in the boonies and in the urban slums, are kings for a day. Too many of the elite think with their heart and not with their head. That's why it was striking to see a recent poll showing Constitutional Court chief judge Mahfud MD and former vice-president Jusuf Kalla as the most admired prospective candidates. Hard on their heels were former finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, State-Owned Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan, former People's Consultative Assembly speaker Hidayat Nurwahid, and Finance Minister Agus Martowardojo. Prabowo lingered further down in 16th place, behind such figures as Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan, businessman Chairul Tanjung, army chief General Pramono Edhie Wibowo, and even East Java governor Soekarwo. It was a classic Jakarta wishlist and, again, it meant exactly nothing. Not only were the respondents Jakarta-based journalists, political analysts, activists, doctoral lecturers and religious leaders, but few if any on the list will be candidates anyway. Prabowo has many powerful enemies from the days when he used his position as Suharto's son-in-law to lord it over his superiors. None more so than retired general Luhut Panjaitan, who heads Golkar candidate Aburizal Bakrie's informal success team. For those familiar with the enmity between the two, it would be fair to say that the former trade minister and one-time ambassador to Singapore is as much intent on trying to destroy Prabowo's candidacy as he is about supporting Bakrie. That also applies to Agus Widjoyo, and three or four other uniformed retirees on the team, which these days is divided between one group actively pushing Bakrie's candidacy and a second group trying to create a less partisan think-tank. Insiders seek to play down the team's role and say any influence the older-generation soldiers may have is balanced by the presence of younger activists, who understand the importance of social networking. Political leadership may still be dominated by the old guard. But when it comes to attracting votes there is at least an awareness in Golkar, as there is in other parties, that the focus must be on the country's youth. Fully 67 million of Indonesia's 187 million voters will be going to the polls for the first time next year. That alone is 35 percent of the electorate, more if you add those in their 20s voting for only a second or third time. A surprising number feel Prabowo represents change, not only in his ideas but especially in the strong leadership he will bring. Indonesian Community for Democracy secretary-general Ratih Hardjono noted in a recent column that the first-timers will be unpredictable swing voters with few if any party allegiances. "The current political elites in Jakarta will have no pull with new voters unless they start developing some capability to understand and embrace this emerging group of Indonesians," she says. Nothing is certain in politics, of course, and the anti-Prabowo campaign may well succeed in the end, with a younger populist candidate magically appearing out of the woodwork to take the country by storm. One thing seems certain though: next year's legislative elections alone could be a showdown to remember. Reprinted courtesy of The Straits Times [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
