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Inflation further dips to 12.1%
Inflation fell for the third week in succession to close at 12.1 per cent as
on August 30 from 12.34 per cent recorded a week earlier as prices of most
food articles moderated.

As per a poll on Wednesday, India's annual inflation rate was expected to
have eased for the third consecutive week, with respite provided by
softening of global crude prices. The wholesale price index was forecast to
have risen 11.96 per cent in the 12 months to August 30, lower than the
previous week's rise of 12.34 per cent, according to the median estimate of
13 economists.

Shubhada Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank, for instance, who forecast 11.96
per cent, said a relatively higher reading a year earlier would also limit
the number.

"Recent weeks have seen inflation stabilise. We expect it to peak in the
third quarter and given the current trend it may peak around 13 per cent,"
she said.

Talking about the softening inflation, commerce minister Kamal Nath last
week had said the government's supply-side measures had begun to take effect
and inflation should soften from the current levels.

The finance ministry also believes inflation will come down to single digit
by the end of this fiscal if oil prices keep softening in the international
markets.

"If oil prices go below $100 per barrel, the wholesale price index inflation
will even come down to 5-6 per cent by the end of the current fiscal,"
Arvind Virmani, chief economic adviser in the finance ministry, told a news
agency recently.

"I am reasonably confident that within a year, inflation will be back to
normal. In the short-term, it depends on oil prices to a large extent and we
have seen oil prices coming down," he said.

He also said food price inflation has not been that severe in India when
compared with the global situation, as prices of primary food articles such
as fruits, vegetables, tea and lentils had gone up by 6.04 per cent during
the 52-week period ended Aug 23.

"It is partly because of the nature of our economy, which is still isolated
from the global situation except in one or two commodities like edible oils
as we import some 60 per cent-plus of our overall edible oil requirements,"
he said.

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