Crude has come down Inflation showing signs of topping out now IIP figure has come above market expected and Indian Nuclear deal in final stages of implementation and after left withdrawing support more pro- reforms ally aiding more reforms in Banking, Insurance, Telecom and other sector. Why is market negative with all positive factors? Market is always efficient hypothesis it always adjusts towards excess created in bull or bear markets by going below or above the mean before it can readjust itself. We have had a Bull market which has created excess and now trading near the mean and most probably we can go below the mean and readjust. In January2008 when market started to correct Inflation and Crude were also factors which had its impact, Crude was around $95 then and now but in Rupee terms higher by 12% now which is relatively costlier and (Rupee depreciation would have major impact on corporate India with MTM & Forex losses). Tax collection (Direct as well as Indirect tax) which was buoyant in first 2-3months now has shown signs of flat growth in August. While many Services company which was a large employer have started to Downsize its workforce brining down direct and indirect unemployment into the system and visible curtail in spending is seen (Realty, Auto, Retail, entertainment and Rentals). Has the Indian great consumption story failed to take-off with many closing shop and putting on hold expansion plans? Sub-prime Crisis intensifying again caution is advised now; we can debate about reason latter.
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