Sharekhan puts 'buy' on Balaji Telefilms; target Rs 268
Sharekhan has maintained 'buy' on Balaji Telefilms for a target price of Rs
268. The company has denied any plans to launch a Hindi general
entertainment channel, dismissing the media reports on the company's GEC
plans as pure speculation.

Sharekhan opines that the launch of a Hindi general entertainment channel in
the current cluttered and highly competitive scenario will have severe
financial implications for the company and also affect its core business of
television content. Hence, the brokerage is inclined to believe that the
reports of the launch of a general entertainment channel by the company are
mere speculation.

The company has launched a new show, 'Kootukari', on Surya TV. Earlier
'Kalyani', another of its show on Surya TV, had gone off air in mid July
2008. Balaji Television will be offered additional slots on various channels
of Sun Network, which will help it, increase the number of programmes under
the sponsored segment.

Sharekhan's interaction with the company's management suggests that the
maximum number of programmes that could be launched in the sponsored
category can go up to eight against the current four shows. However, despite
an increase in the sponsored programming hours, the contribution of the
sponsored content business to the company's top line and bottom line shall
remain relatively small.

The brokerage has understood that no further development has taken place on
the proposed stake sale by STAR. The promoters of Balaji Televisions had
been given 240 days (ending April 2009) to buy out STAR's 25.99 per cent
stake in the company at Rs 190 per share. Considering the quantum of the
amount involved (Rs322 crore), Sharekhan expects the promoters to rope in
financial/strategic partners which might lead to an open offer. The open
offer would be a trigger for the stock.

Sharekhan's outlook on the television content business of Balaji Television
remains positive, as the company is a scaleable player in a non-scaleable
business. However, the near-term profitability of Balaji television would be
affected by a drop in the realisations due to the end of the company's
exclusivity arrangement with STAR and the going off air of one of its
popular shows, 'Kahani Ghar Ghar Kii'.

At the market price of Rs 148.7, the stock trades at 7.5x FY2010E earnings
per share (EPS) of Rs 19.9.

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