Caution on FII sales in index futures, fall in Nifty Oct premium
MUMBAI: Though things look positive with US lawmakers agreeing on a $700
billion bank-rescue package and House of Representatives approving the
nuclear deal with India, indicators in the futures sketch a shaky picture
for Indian markets on Monday.

On Friday, Nifty October futures trimmed premium and foreign players sold in
index futures and today Singapore Nifty was in 11 points discount.

After starting with the 48 points premium Thursday, Nifty October futures
trimmed premium and closed at a premium of 13 point and just added 4.88 lakh
shares in open interest. This signals players have gone short on the markets
at higher levels.

Even though U.S. lawmakers said they have made a breakthrough in talks on a
$700 billion plan to revive the credit markets and expect to announce an
agreement on legislation later today, analysts are not optimistic on this.

"If the US rescue plan goes through, market may witness a pull-back rally.
But it won't change the trend; it may only delay the fall," said Sachin
Chavan, an independent analyst.

Analysts are also not optimistic on the second quarter corporate numbers,
which will start to trickle in next week, as the global slowdown and high
inflation are likely to eclipse profits.

"Given the rising signs of global slowdown which may eclipse corporate
profits, market will likely to remain under pressure for some more time.
Markets will largely be news driven. I expect Nifty to take support at
3800-3750 levels where we have seen put selling," said Akash Chopra, analyst
at Globe-One Advisory.

Call buying was observed at 4000 strike while bears wrote calls at strike
4100-4500. On the other hand, put buying was seen at 4000-3800 levels while
3750 saw put writing where Nifty might take support.

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Inflation for week ended Sep 13 remained unchanged at 12.14 per cent. The
wholesale price index based inflation has stabilized on a year-on-year
basis, but still far above the 3.5 per cent for the same week last year.

"At present we are certainly not optimistic on markets. The Sensex is headed
for a test of 12500 after respecting resistance at 14000. The primary trend
remains down and failure of 12500 would warn of a down-swing with a target
of 10000," said Anand Sinha, equity strategist at Raxson Wealth.

"At current point of time we are not going short on the markets. Rather, we
are advising players to cover shorts at these levels and go long keeping a
strict stop loss," said Siddhartha Bhamre, fund manager at Angel Broking.

Foreign institutional investors' net sold futures worth Rs 123.75 crore
while they net bought options to the tune of Rs 296.97 crore on Friday.

In Asia, stocks fell for a fifth day led by shipping and commodities
companies. Concerns are the US bailout plan won't arrest slowing global
growth.


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