Delivered-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: Thu, 25 Dec 2003 14:21:34 -0800 From: Paul Kedrosky <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: TOEFL data (was RE: [IP] TOEFL sees sharp drop in attendees in China) X-Originating-IP: [66.27.66.14] X-Sender: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Dave --
I saw this article on TOEFL, wrote a comment on it (http://www.kedrosky.com/ig/archives/000147.html), and then began to think something was awry. After all, this is a huge drop. I teach on a campus with many Chinese students -- why had I not heard about it sooner. Fewer Chinese grad students means higher tuitions for other students, or lower costs, or both, given their large presence at U.S. universities.
I was sufficiently intrigued to pursue it further. But unless I'm reading the data wrong, the TOEFL statistics (http://www.toefl.org/pubs/resdloadlib.html#summaries) don't show this decline. Matter of fact, it shows strong growth right across 9/11 in the number of Chinese mainland TOEFL-takers.
Period # 1999/00 10,961 2000/01 14,539 2001/02 17,644 2002/03 22,699 2003/ 10,000 * (from original article)
In other words, it's a good story, but it doesn't seem to correspond to the data.
P.
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