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- -------- Original Message -------- Subject: [Dewayne-Net] re: Is Apple creating the FCC's worst fear? Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 06:40:24 -0800 From: Dewayne Hendricks <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> References: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> [Note: This comment comes from reader Andrew Odlyzko. Andrew forgot one important member of the content food chain, the lawyers. DLH] > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Andrew Odlyzko) > Date: February 11, 2006 6:27:24 AM PST > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: Re: [Dewayne-Net] Is Apple creating the FCC's worst fear? > > Dewayne, > > At last, a welcome wake up call for the telcos, which have been > dreaming > about streaming for decades, oblivious to the world around them. > > A few points: > > 1. That movies and music would be delivered primarily as file > transfers > for local storage and reply was predicted more than a decade ago. > It is > a simple consequence of technology trends. > > 2. File transfers already dominate. Perhaps Video iPod will make the > telecom industry realize this, but Napster made files dominant half a > dozen years ago. All that P2P traffic that everyone agrees is now the > dominant form of traffic on the Internet is in the form of file > transfers. > Streaming traffic is far smaller. > > 3. One thing that is not mentioned in this story, but is relevant, is > that it is faster-than-real-time file transfers that are likely to > dominate. > After all, do you want to wait 2 hours for that movie to download > to your > Video iPod? If you want it there, to take along on the plane ride > or to > the beach, in 5 minutes, you have got to have a transmission link that > is 24 times faster than what is required for real-time streaming. > > I have been asking in my networking-related lectures how many people > see any point (in a loose sense, for either consumers or service > providers) > in having faster-than-real-time movie transfers. The highest positive > response rate I ever got was about 20%. That means people just don't > understand this. Yet faster-than-real-time transfers already > dominate. > Here in the U.S., we have mostly MP3 music files, which are encoded > at 100-200 Kbps, and are flying around at 0.5 - 3 Mbps. In places > like > Korea, network traffic is dominated by movies, which are encoded at > typically under 1 Mbps, but are moving across the network at 5-10 > Mbps. > > Some further arguments for faster-than-real-time transfers are at > > <http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/tv.internet.pdf> > > 4. It is very questionable whether "content revenue could dwarf > the revenue > generated by voice and the Internet." People have traditionally > valued > connectivity far more than content, see "Content is not king," > > <http://firstmonday.org/issues/issue6_2/odlyzko/> > > Furthermore, content does not come for free. All those musicians, > directors, > and studio executives like to get paid. In fact, the telcos' > entrance into > the movie distribution business is making them salivate at the > prospects > of real competition in delivery methods, so they can get of the > revenue > stream that cable now collects. > > Andrew Weblog at: <http://weblog.warpspeed.com> -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: GnuPG v1.4.2 (MingW32) Comment: Using GnuPG with Mozilla - http://enigmail.mozdev.org iD8DBQFD7fqwtcdvoAezhUsRAsBLAJsGBqsCu9P3cFmGEF1i64ePyjNr8ACeO1H4 RNiZp+TSYuzcGVk6DWmf1Nk= =6xHJ -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- ------------------------------------- You are subscribed as [email protected] To manage your subscription, go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/?listname=ip Archives at: http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/
