Begin forwarded message:
From: Simon Higgs <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: August 25, 2006 3:32:05 AM EDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: more on : The Odds -- Re: [IP] more on apple recall ..
Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Recalls never happen without a sound business case for them. It's a
risk management strategy. The manufacturer weighs the risk of
lawsuits (or similarly damaging events) versus the actual cost of the
recall. Whichever is the cheaper route for the manufacturer is the
route chosen.
6 million laptop batteries have a retail cost of around $774,000,000
(based on 13" Macbook battery at $129). Assuming a manufacturing cost
of $15 each, this is about $90,000,000. Whatever the real reasons,
it's cheaper to pay nearly $100,000,000 in recalls than it is to
preserve the status quo and only make payouts on the quiet.
My guess, and this is only a guess, is that this was prompted by the
recent ban of laptops in carry-on luggage on aircraft. With a laptop
in the cabin, if it's battery caught fire, there would be humans (and
fire extinguishers) nearby to put out the fire. With laptops being
carried in baggage, the risk of 20 (using Lauren's figure) in 6
million batteries catching fire becomes only 1 in 300,000.
Given that there are about 30,000 commercial flights per day in the
US (and about 5,000 airborne at any given moment), it's not too far
fetched to assume that eventually an unattended battery fire will
bring down a commercial airliner. Or two. That's the risk that
exceeds $100,000,000 and was what prompted (I think) the recall.
Simon
David Farber wrote:
Begin forwarded message:
From: Lauren Weinstein <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: August 24, 2006 4:17:00 PM EDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: The Odds -- Re: [IP] more on apple recall ..
Dave, not to downplay the seriousness of fires or even slightly
singed laps, but it never hurts to look more closely at the numbers.
According to the media reports, between Dell and Apple we're talking
about around 6 million notebook batteries, and (at least based
on the current U.S. figures I've seen) under 20 total cases of
overheating (and far fewer actual fires). Of course, there's
always the risk of future events related to these batteries, many
of which have been in use for quite some time.
But still, do the math and it appears that the odds of getting
"burned" by one of these batteries is pretty damn low, *much* lower
than the odds of many other bad things happening (see
http://www.funny2.com/odds.htm ).
This isn't to say that defective products are a good thing, but
trying to keep such risks in perspective is a useful exercise.
--Lauren--
Lauren Weinstein
[EMAIL PROTECTED] or [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Tel: +1 (818) 225-2800
http://www.pfir.org/lauren
Co-Founder, PFIR
- People For Internet Responsibility - http://www.pfir.org
Co-Founder, IOIC
- International Open Internet Coalition - http://www.ioic.net
Moderator, PRIVACY Forum - http://www.vortex.com
Member, ACM Committee on Computers and Public Policy
Lauren's Blog: http://lauren.vortex.com
DayThink: http://daythink.vortex.com
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--
Best Regards,
Simon Higgs
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