There is no question that we won't know until after it's happened,
Russ, and that their previous predictions have failed to warn us of
the slow take-off of this cycle, if I recall correctly. But as far
as the date of the minimum, doesn't that have something to do with
the number of sunspots of one cycle becoming outnumbered by the
sunspots of the next cycle? (they have reversed magnetic polarity).
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png with its blue
and orange data points indicating the sunspots from different cycles,
seems to indicate that the minimum occurred somewhere around three years ago.
best wishes,
Nick
At 20:36 03-05-12, you wrote:
That is all well and good, but since the experts took nearly two
years deciding whether or not we had entered Cycle 24, and
ultimately deciding we had done so a year or so prior, IMHO this is
either 1) a perception of the obvious at present which is
potentially pretty accurate or 2) a prediction which will prove to
be wrong in a year or so.
I am reluctant to accept that we are 3 years into Cycle 24, and
that's the assumption the prediction is based on, partially based on
my comments above. If I am correct, then the maximum may not be hit
until a year or perhaps more beyond what is predicted here., and as
a result, the number predicted is probably low.
Russ Edmunds
15 mi NNW of Philadelphia
Grid FN20id
<[email protected]>
FM: Yamaha T-80 & Onkyo T-450RDS w/ APS9B @15'; Grundig G8
AM: Modified Sony ICF 2010's barefoot
--- On Thu, 5/3/12, Nick Hall-Patch <[email protected]> wrote:
> From: Nick Hall-Patch <[email protected]>
> Subject: [IRCA] latest solar cycle prediction
> To: "Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America"
<[email protected]>
> Date: Thursday, May 3, 2012, 2:48 PM
> NASA's latest solar maximum
> prediction:
>
>
> http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
>
>
> N
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