--- On Fri, 2/11/11, Ali Abd Rahman <[email protected]> wrote:
From: Ali Abd Rahman <[email protected]> Subject: [IKRAM_JOHOR] Egypt: Solution made in Israel To: [email protected] Date: Friday, February 11, 2011, 10:02 PM Salam 1. Entering the 17th day, everybody was expecting the impossible to happen: Mubarak was about to step down. 2. Even Obama was giving a hopeful signal with his 'we are witnessing history in the making' comment. 3. So it came as a shock to everybody when Mubarak said he would not step down just as yet. He of course said he had made clear all along that he would step down come September. 4. Then the vice president appealed to the youths of Egypt to quit the protest and instead to go home and generate income for the impoverished nation. 5. The military then came on air reiterating, and supporting, the position of Mubarak. 6. Mubarak's envoy in Washington made an interpretation that Mubarak is now just the president in name, and that Omar Suleiman is now the de facto president. (It is not a coincidence that the former made an unpopular comment that 'Egypt is not ready for democracy'.) 7. Followed were the responses of world leaders. 8. First Obama said 'No comment', then amended by saying Mubarak seemed to have done too little too late. 9. Sarkozy said Egypt should not experience another dictatorship. William Hague, the British Foreign Secretary poured cold water by asking the protesters to go slower. 10. The most interesting comment yet came from Barak (Israeli defence minister) cautioning that a hasty transition to democracy would open Egypt (and the whole region) to catastrophe. What Egypt needs, according to Barak, is a gradual transition to democracy. What he said tallies with Mubarak's position that he needed seven months before democracy could be implemented. 11. Why seven months? According Barak, and Mubarak seemed to concur, Egypt needs seven months to make preparations for the transition. Safety guards have to be put in place to protect some vital interests. 12. In another words, the view from Tel Aviv (and this seems to be the dominant one in today's world diplomacy) is that the transition to democracy has to be deliberately engineered so as to produce only 'desirable results'. 13. Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former US state secretary under Jimmy Carter, immediately endorsed the idea. He said if Osama bin Laden were to contest in a democratic elections in Saudi Arabia, he stood a good chance to win. 14. So the main threat perceived by Israel, and shared by most western leaders, is the Muslim Brotherhood gaining power at the end of the episode. Every effort is then made to avoid that outcome. 15. One Israeli strategist even compared the Egyptian phenomenon to that of the Algerian experience in 1991 when the quest for democracy were subverted as the Islamist were poised to win. 16. The Muslims have God on their side. There will be time when they have to act decisively as depicted by events in the Seerah. They also need to heed the lessons of history so as not to fall prey to the mistakes of history. 17. The Islamists of Turkey have evolved so tremendously since the time of Erbakan that the West, including Israel, have no choice but to accept them. 18. In this light, everybody has to appreciate the cautious moves made the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood. 19. May Allah Provide them, and us, Guidance always. Ali Abd Rahman
