Simmering Discontent
The Persistence of Popular Protest in Egypt
By Kareem M. Kamel**
Researcher - International Relations
May 23, 2005
Protestors being beaten by Central Security Forces in Cairo
In an unprecedented level of unrest and civil activism in Egypt, thousands
have been taking to the streets on a regular basis for the past few months,
demanding more political freedoms and an end to President Mubarak's 24-year
rule. For the first time in the country's modern history, Egyptians are
publicly debating alternatives to Mubarak's incumbency, rejecting the
government's snail-paced reform policies and calling for a more independent
and efficient foreign policy.
Egypt has never witnessed direct, competitive presidential elections in its
recent history. Previous contests for the presidency took the form of
referendums with Mubarak's the only name on the ballot.
Despite the February announcement that the government would finally allow
multi-candidate presidential elections to be held, Egypt's ruling party
recently set terms that effectively exclude independent candidates and the
regime's political adversaries. For their nomination to be accepted,
candidates will need the approval of 250 members of the lower and upper
houses of parliament and nationwide local councils-institutions that are
virtually monopolized by the ruling party ("US Support").
Popular demands for reform have skyrocketed in the aftermath of the
constitutional amendment allowing candidates to run directly against the
Egyptian president. But Cairo has also witnessed three bombing attacks in
less than a month, including one that took place in downtown Cairo, in a
location facing the National Democratic Party's (NDP) headquarters and the
Egyptian museum. Analysts have debated what looks like a resurgence of
Islamic militancy in Egypt after almost 8 years of calm. While some regard
the attacks as isolated incidents committed by misguided youth, others urged
caution at the potential rise of a new, more militant generation of
Islamists, angered by years of regime repression, poverty, and the
unwillingness of Egyptian authorities to oppose hegemonic US and Israeli
policies in the Middle East (Radi).
Nevertheless, the bombings were generally condemned by Egyptian civil
society, with many members of the opposition warning against any attempt by
the government to manipulate the attacks to justify the continuation of
emergency laws and more political repression.
Interestingly, some analysts credit this upsurge in popular activism in
Egypt to President Bush's so-called "forward strategy for freedom" and the
"contagion effect" of the elections in Iraq and Palestine. Foad Ajami,
prominent Orientalist and Republican, has triumphantly hailed the downfall
of the "Arab edifice of power," due to what he sees as America's current
unwillingness to support regional autocrats and its readiness to "gamble on
the young, the new, and the unknown" (Ajami). But contrary to those
optimistic, self-satisfying assertions, recent record has shown that despite
pro-democracy statements from the US administration, the entrenched Arab
regimes continue to enjoy US favor. One has only to note how President Zine
al-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia-who presides over a repressive police
state-has twice managed to obtain a ludicrous electoral near-unanimity, and
still remains fully supported by the United States. Moreover, Saudi Crown
Prince Abdullah simply allowed partial municipal elections in his country
and still continues to be courteously received by George W. Bush in his
Texas ranch.
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Popular activism in Egypt is the result of the accumulation of
decades of political and economic injustices.
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For all intents and purposes, demands for reform in Egypt should not be
lumped together with recent elections in Iraq and Palestine. In fact, one
could safely argue that modern-day popular activism in Egypt is the result
of the accumulation of decades of political and economic injustices, and a
pervasive feeling of indignation at Egypt's shrinking regional and
international influence. Egyptian popular sentiment has been further
inflamed by US hegemonic policies in the Middle East and Israel's continuing
occupation of Arab land. Those calling for reform in Egypt today should not
be seen as an extension of Bush's designs for the greater Middle East, but
rather as part and parcel of a patriotic, homegrown opposition movement that
is against the twin evils of domestic dictatorship and foreign occupation.
"Black Hole States" Behind the Tensions
For decades, Arab leaders have shown a remarkable ability to evade change by
demonstrating to their patrons in Washington their usefulness in supporting
US strategic objectives, and their ability to maintain stability and calm in
the Middle East by forcefully pacifying their disgruntled citizens. In the
process, the regimes have become more responsive to the demands of the West,
as opposed to the desperate pleas of their people. The result has been the
decimation of civil society and an asphyxiating political climate where
reform is either denied altogether, postponed, or performed in a tightly
controlled and fitfully slow manner that does not significantly alter the
rules of the game.
The recently published 2004 UN Arab Human Development Report contends that
Arab states have been transformed into what the report dubs "black hole
states in which rulers are granted unchallengeable powers so as to convert
the surrounding social environment into a setting in which nothing moves and
from which nothing escapes," ("Lack of Reform"). In many ways, political
life in Egypt exhibits much of the same characteristics. Between April 2003
and April 2004, the Egyptian Organization for Human Rights (EOHR) documented
15 cases of death by torture deaths in police stations. An EOHR fact-finding
mission to the northern Sinai town of al-Arish after the Taba bombings in
October 2004 reported the indiscriminate roundup of 3,000 city residents
(El-Ghobashy). Moreover, the streets of major cities in Egypt have become
permanent barracks for conscript-filled trucks of the Central Security
Forces, in a display of force designed to deter opposition activists and
potential protestors. Even the government-appointed National Supreme Council
for Human Rights (NSCHR) published an annual report documenting routine
torture methods practiced by security forces, and calling for an end to the
24-year-old state of emergency and the immediate release of prisoners who
have completed their terms ("Egypt Group").
Opposition movements have also denounced Egypt's increasing dependence on
the United States and the unexplained warmth in recent official
Egyptian-Israeli relations. After being opposed to the Iraq war, the
Egyptian government erratically changed course and hosted the Iraq Summit
held in the resort of Sharm el Sheikh, giving legitimacy to the US-appointed
Allawi government and rebuffing France's attempt to secure a timetable for
the withdrawal of US troops.
The increasingly prevalent Central Security cordons that litter Egypt
The most significant upgrading in Egyptian-Israeli relations came in late
May 2004, when Mubarak and Sharon agreed to set up political, security and
economic committees to upgrade all aspects of the countries' bilateral
relationship. The move was further augmented with the conclusion of the
biggest deal ever between the two countries: a contract worth $2.5 billion
for Egypt to supply Israel with natural gas. Mubarak then stunned the world
by asserting that Sharon-reviled across the Arab world-is the Palestinians'
"best chance for peace." The Egyptian president also affirmed his country's
readiness to help keep the peace in Gaza after Israel's planned withdrawal
and signed a protocol with Israel establishing seven "Qualified Industrial
Zones" (QIZs), where Egyptian goods would gain free access to US markets
only if 11.7% of the content originated in Israel, thus giving the latter
country de facto "veto power" over Egyptian goods heading to the United
States.
New Forces for Change
The Egyptian Movement for Change, better known as Kefaya (Arabic for
"enough"), is the name of the increasingly vocal political movement
denouncing the NDP's political monopoly, calling for a separation of powers,
an end to corruption and nepotism, and rejecting all attempts aimed at
grooming Mubarak's son, Gamal, for office. Kefaya's founding document was
presented in October 2004 by highly respected ex-judge Tariq al-Bishri, who
called upon Egyptians to withdraw their "long-abused consent to be governed"
and to engage in civil disobedience (El-Ghobashy). The movement can be
regarded as an umbrella organization hosting a variety of Islamist,
Socialist, and Arab Nationalist parties. The movement's website suggests
that its members are:
"Egyptian citizens, who despite their different political affiliations and
backgrounds, see that the region is facing immense dangers manifested in:
the US occupation of Iraq, Zionist aggression in Palestine, the
restructuring of the region's political landscape and the undermining of its
cultural heritage. The movements' members see that the reason for Egypt's
inability to face those impending threats is its despotic form of government
and the NDP's political monopolization of power - a feature which requires
total political and constitutional reform." ("About Us")
Kefaya's membership is replete with Egyptian activists and intellectuals,
among them many distinguished members of the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as
Abd al-Halim Qandil, editor of the fiery nationalist al-Arabi newspaper. In
November, Qandil was kidnapped, blindfolded, beaten, stripped naked, tossed
onto the Cairo-Suez highway and told by his captors to be "more respectful
of asyadak [his masters]," (El-Ghobashy). The frequency of the movement's
anti-government protests has increased since December, and the Muslim
Brotherhood, having long avoided direct clashes with security forces, has
joined with Kefaya and other more secular movements demanding reform ("Egypt
's Brotherhood"). The beginning of May witnessed an intensification of
Brotherhood-led protests across Egyptdespite thousands of the Islamist
movement's supporters being detained in nationwide crackdowns.
Conclusions
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The streets have become permanent barracks for Central Security
Forces-a display of force to deter activists.
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For years, the Arab state system- Egypt being no exception-has suffered
from leaders who rule unchecked by countervailing institutions, effective
parliaments, or independent judiciaries (Ottaway). In Egypt, the ruling
elite and their Western-educated business compatriots do not seem to regard
political freedoms, institutionalization, and economic equity as urgent and
legitimate concerns. For them, politics involve their unchallenged
accumulation of political and economic influence, and the repackaging of
failed policies with seemingly attractive, yet ultimately fictitious,
slogans.
While the majority of Egyptians continue to long for freedom and
democracy-in principle-they have until recently failed to present
broad-based political organizations and follow through with systematic
political activity capable of acting as an effective counterweight to the
heavily entrenched regime. The long-awaited revival of civil activism in
Egypt is an encouraging phenomenon that will play itself out in the critical
months before September, when presidential elections are due to take place.
Egypt's ruling NDP will undoubtedly seek to exploit the remaining few months
to intensify its pro-Mubarak propaganda campaign, using all the usual tools
that it has monopolized and manipulated over the past quarter of a century.
Meanwhile, opposition groups have come to realize that they do not have the
same access to the regime's resources, and that the political playing field
is less than level. Hence, their strategy seems to be focused on trying to
win over as many segments of the Egyptian population as they can by closing
ranks, staging highly publicized demonstrations, and constantly highlighting
grievances against and abuses by the regime.
The recent provisional decision by Egyptian judges to abstain from
monitoring the elections unless the government grants them full oversight of
the electoral process, and the seeming inability of the government to
guarantee electoral transparency, are both factors that might play a role in
enhancing the credibility of the opposition and tarnishing the image of the
regime. More seriously, conducting presidential elections in the absence of
judicial oversight could violate the Egyptian constitution (" Egypt
Judges").
Only time will tell whether Egypt's deadlocked political situation will
eventually give way to a more responsive, democratic system, or regress into
business as usual and a "authoritarianism in disguise," masked by only a few
cosmetic changes.
Works Cited:
a.. "About Us." The Egyptian Movement for Change: Kefaya Last Accessed: 14
May 2005
b.. Ajami, Fouad. "The Autumn of the Autocrats," Foreign Affairs May/June
2005. Last Accessed: 10 May 2005
c.. "Egypt's Brotherhood Vows to Persist." Al-Jazeera (English) 8 May
2005. Last Accessed: 10 May 2005
d.. "Egypt Group: End State of Emergency." Al-Jazeera (English) 12 Apr.
2005. Last Accessed: 9 May 2005
e.. "Egypt Judges Demand Election Role." Al-Jazeera (English) 13 May 2005.
Last Accessed: 14 May 2005
f.. El-Ghobashy, Mona. "Egypt Looks Ahead to Portentous Year." Middle East
Report Online 2 Feb. 2005. Last Accessed: 10 May 2005
g.. "Lack of Reform in Arab States Could Lead to Chaotic Social Upheaval -
UN Report." UN News Center 13 May 2005. Last Accessed: 13 May 2005
h.. Ottaway, Marina. "Democracies and Constituencies in the Arab World."
Carnegie Papers : Middle East Series July 2004. Last Accessed: 10 May 2005
Radi, Lamia . "Egypt Faces New Phenomenon of Islamic Militancy." Middle
East Online 2 May 2005. Last Accessed: 7 May 2005 "US Support for Arab
Democracy." Financial Times 12 May 2005. Last Accessed: 13 May 2005
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* Kareem M. Kamel is an Egyptian analyst based in Cairo, Egypt . He has an
MA in International Relations and is specialized in security studies,
decision-making, nuclear politics, and Middle East politics. He is
currently a PhD candidate at the American University in London, and a
teaching assistant to the Political Science Department at the American
University in Cairo.
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