DR UMER CHAPRA explains Ibn Khaldun�s theory of rise and fall of nations and predicts that revival of Muslim Ummah is at handI bn Khaldun lived in very difficult times. His family had been forced by political upheavals to migrate from Spain, their native land, to Tunis. It is here that he was born in the Gregorian year 1332 (732 Hijrah). When he was still in his early teens the scourge of Black Death claimed the life of his parents as well as that of many relatives and close friends of his family. Consequently, he had to undergo a great deal of suffering. Continuation of political upheavals forced him to move from place to place until 1382 when he finally settled down in Egypt where he spent the rest of his professional life until his death in 1406 (808H).The Muslim civilization was already in the process of decline during his lifetime. The Abbasid caliphate had come to an end in 1258, around three quarters of a century before his birth, after the pillage, burning and near destruction of Baghdad and its surrounding areas by the Mongols. A number of other calamities, including the Crusades (1095-1291), Mongol invasion (1258-1355), and Black Death (1340s) had also weakened most of the central Muslim lands. In addition, the Circassian Mamluks (922-1517), during whose period Ibn Khaldun spent nearly a third of his life, were corrupt and inefficient and followed policies that could not but accelerate the decline. Ibn Khaldun was, therefore, in search of an effective strategy to bring about a reversal of the tide. As a man of extraordinary intellectual capacities, he was well aware that the reversal could not be dreamed of without first drawing lessons from history and determining the factors that had led the Muslim civilization to bloom out of humble beginnings and to decline thereafter. Development and Decline in Ibn Khaldun�s Model Ibn Khaldun constructed a model that could help explain the rise and fall of civilizations or the development and decline of economies, both of which are interdependent phenomena in his model. This model is spelt out in the Muqaddamah which is the first volume of a 7-volume history briefly called Kitab al-�Ibar or the Book of Lessons (of History). His model does not rely on a single factor to explain the rise and fall of societies but rather takes into account all-important socio-economic and political factors. It links together the Shari�ah or the rules of behaviour, political authority, society (including individuals, families, clans, tribes and other groups), economy, development, and justice in a circular interdependent manner. Each of these factors influences the others and in turn is influenced by them. Since the full operation of this cycle takes place through a chain reaction over a long period of three generations (almost one hundred and twenty years), a dimension of dynamism gets built into the whole analysis and helps explain how social, moral, political, and economic factors interact over time to lead to the development and decline, or the rise and fall, of civilizations. All these factors together determine the quality of the individuals, the families, the society, the market, and the government, and thereby influence the overall performance of a dynasty or civilization. However, only one of these crucial factors may serve as the trigger mechanism. It is possible for different societies to have different trigger mechanism. However, other factors tend to be affected by this over time. Accordingly, it is not possible to talk of just economic decline within the framework of his model. When a society starts decaying, it decays in practically everything: economic decline becomes a part of the overall deterioration. This creates the effect of circular causation. The Role of the Human Being Even though Ibn Khaldun takes into account all important socio-economic and political variables, the centrepiece of his analysis is the human being himself. He or she is the end and means of development. He is the end because it is his well-being that is desired. He or she will not be efficient or creative until his or her well-being is ensured. A society in which the common man is unable to reap the fruits of his hard labour or get a fair share in the wealth and development of his society, is not likely to grow rapidly. He is also the means because nothing can work effectively until he is right. He is the input of the market, the government, the family, and the society. The market and the government may not operate efficiently and equitably, the family may disintegrate, and the society may be soulless and uncaring if the human input of all these institutions and organisations does not have the moral and mental qualities needed for their successful operation. If the human being is not right, the market may not serve the social interest, the government may be corrupt, ineffective and unjust, husbands and wives may not be able to get along with each other, families may fall apart, children may not get the much needed care and upbringing, and the society may be unable to secrete the glue of mutual care and co-operation necessary for social solidarity and all-around development. This is perhaps the main reason why all the prophets of God concentrated on the reform of human beings and the social, political and economic institutions that affect them. They provided the moral values or the rules of behaviour that are necessary for this purpose and also a strategy that can help ensure everyone�s compliance with these values. They struggled hard for the reform and development of their societies and mankind through education and socio-economic uplift. This is the reason why the Qur�an says:
"God does not change the condition of a people until they change their own inner selves" (Al-Qur�an 13:11, see also 8:53). If human beings are reformed in a way that makes them willing and able to render their best in their own interest and make the sacrifices needed for ensuring the well-being of their society and mankind, then the market, the government, the family, and the society may all operate effectively in a way that leads to the well-being of all. The Role of Development and Justice All the other factors in Ibn Khaldun�s model (Shari�ah or rules of behaviour, society, economy, government, development and justice) affect human beings and determine their willingness and ability to do their best for themselves and their society. The two factors that affect them most are development and justice. If there is no development, then there may be paucity of the resources needed for ensuring the well-being of all and rendering justice to them. Moreover, a society does not generally remain stagnant. If it does not develop, it tends to slide backward. The development referred to here is not just economic development but rather development of all aspects of society, including moral, institutional, intellectual, social, economic, and political. If even one of them lags behind, it may affect the quality of the human being and thus retard development in the future. While development is important, justice is also indispensable. It induces people to work hard and be conscientious, honest, and creative. It also promotes co-operation and social solidarity, and reduces socially harmful behaviour. Human societies cannot function effectively and develop without justice. Absence of justice leads to discontent, crime, social and political turmoil, and ultimately to a decline in development. Justice demands that all sectors of society must receive their rights, irrespective of whether they are rich or poor, white or coloured, male or female, adults or children, powerful or ordinary. This is perhaps the reason why the Qur�an makes the establishment of justice the primary reason for which God sent His prophets to mankind (Al-Qur�an � 57:25). The Qur�an also says that a society that perpetuates injustice is ultimately destroyed (Al-Qur�an � 20:111). Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) equated injustice with absolute darkness because the greater the injustice in a society, the greater may be the discontent and the lesser the development. Justice is, therefore, the most important criterion for judging the degree of Islamisation of a Muslim society. Justice cannot be realised without certain rules of behaviour or values and institutions. Every society has these rules of behaviour. In a Muslim society, the Shari�ah serves as the basis for them. These rules of behaviour require people to fulfil their obligations towards each other and to abstain from harming others. The rules of behaviour are, however, meaningless if they are not enforced. Some people may act upon them on their own volition, but others may violate them. If the violators are able to get away unscathed, the circle of such people may gradually expand and the violation of rules may become a part of the social mood through path dependence and self-reinforcing mechanism. Incentives and deterrents help in the enforcement of these rules of behaviour. These incentives and deterrents must be both otherworldly and of this world. Both of them are together needed to ensure the right behaviour and discourage the wrong. Otherworldly incentives and deterrents emphasise our accountability before God who knows everything we do and will reward or punish us in the Hereafter according to our deeds in this world. No one can escape this accountability. This concept of otherworldly accountability is indispensable because it induces people to abide by the rules of behaviour on their own volition and thereby reduces excessive dependence on regulation as well as the costs of enforcement. The Role of the Government and the Economy However, God and the Hereafter are unseen and people whose faith is not deep may disregard them. Incentives and deterrents in this world are also, therefore, indispensable. It is also the job of the government to ensure the effective operation of these incentives and deterrents and to create a proper environment for this purpose. The rules provided by the Shari�ah must become reflected in the laws and constitution of a country. The government must also establish effective machinery to detect violators along with impartial judicial and police machinery to punish them promptly. If the rules of behaviour do not get enforced on all individuals, irrespective of their wealth or status, then the Shari�ah cannot be effective. That is why the Prophet (peace be upon him) said, "God restrains through the sultan what He does not restrain through the Qur�an." The Qur�an can only give the rules: be honest, fulfil contracts, be kind and considerate, do not mistreat your wives, do not cheat, do not be unjust, and do not hurt others. It cannot by itself enforce them. The government has to do this, and if it does not perform this task fairly and impartially, then it will impair the realisation of both justice and development. This brings us to the economy which will not develop unless the available resources are used efficiently. The market system ensures the most effective use of a society�s resources. Ibn Khaldun and many other scholars in Islamic history opposed the ownership and running the businesses by the government. Nationalisation of industries and businesses is, therefore, a concept alien to Islam except to a limited extent when necessary. Nevertheless, a number of Muslim dictators resorted to it under the influence of socialism to ensure the perpetuation of their power. This policy has brought nothing but tears to the Muslim world. The government has, nevertheless, a crucial role to play in the development of an economy. It must provide the necessary social and physical infrastructure, provide the facilities needed for development, ensure the prevalence of justice and fair-play, and punish those who are dishonest, unjust and unfair. If the government does not perform its functions effectively, the economy will not develop. This raises the question of when a government will truly enforce the Shari�ah and perform its functions effectively. This happens best when it is accountable before the people and they are able to not only participate in decision-making but also elect and remove important functionaries of the government. If accountability is not ensured, then government functionaries may be able to get away with corruption, inefficiencies, and inequities. This may give rise to an ineffective use of scarce resources and the enrichment of some at the expense of the majority. To ensure the accountability of government functionaries, Islam instituted the system of khilafah and shura. The only difference between this and secular democracy is the supremacy of moral values. They are eternal and cannot be changed. Even secular democracies are guided by the moral values of their societies. However, because secularism does not consider these values to be sacred and eternal, they can be changed by a majority vote. This is why prostitution, homosexuality and the cohabitation of unmarried couples have been legalised in some secular democracies. This is not possible in an Islamic state. It must abide by the moral teachings of Islam as long as it is a real not pseudo Islamic state. The Trigger Mechanism of Muslim Decline The trigger mechanism of Muslim decline was, according to Ibn Khaldun, political illegitimacy which started with the setting aside of khilafah in 679 by Mu�awiyah. Nevertheless, since the Islamic values prevailed, for a long time, it was not possible for the government to be absolute and arbitrary. The rule of law prevailed, the judicial system operated effectively and honestly, and the government remained accountable before the people. The Shari�ah continued to have a say in public affairs. Public resources were spent for promoting the well-being of people. Education and research received particular emphasis and led to what Bernard Lewis calls a "momentous intellectual awakening" in which scholars of all fields of learning and faiths participated without discrimination. This enabled the Muslim world according to George Sarton, to maintain supremacy in nearly all fields of science and technology for almost six centuries from the middle of the 8th to the middle of the 14th century. Unfortunately, the governments became more and more absolute and arbitrary with the passage of time. Even though lip service continued to be paid to Islam, state resources began to be misused for the luxury of the royal court and taxes rose beyond the ability of the people to bear. Well-being of the people did not remain the main thrust of government policies. Justice and development accordingly became the worst victims. The Muslim world started losing the momentum of development that Islam had provided for it to the extent that it could not stop its colonisation by the Western imperialist powers. Six hundred years have passed since Ibn Khaldun wrote. The Muslim decline has continued persistently even though it has not been a straight line phenomenon. The influence of Islam reversed the trend during a number of periods when honest and far-sighted rulers took over the helm of affairs. They pursued the right policies which enabled Muslim countries to develop rapidly. However, all these intermittent periods of movement in the positive direction helped reduce only the pace of decline. They could not reverse the long-run trend towards decline. The question is why? The reason is that political illegitimacy, the trigger mechanism in Ibn Khaldun�s model, has continued. According to the website, "The Index of Electionworld.org", only 12 of the 55 member countries of the Islamic Development Bank have democracy while 43, or 78 per cent, do not. They are controlled by powerful vested interests and far removed from the model of khilafah and shura stipulated by Islam. The absence of democracy has led to a great deal of corruption and misuse of public resources for the private benefit of the rich and the powerful. The "Corruption Perception Index" prepared by Transparency International includes 133 countries and ranges from 10 (least corrupt) to zero (most corrupt). A score of 5 on this index indicates a borderline country. It is a pity that a predominant majority of Muslim countries fall below this borderline. This is so in spite of the fact that the Qur�an emphatically prohibits wrongful acquisition of wealth and the taking of bribes (Al-Qur�an � 2:188). As a result of this corruption, governments are unable to spend adequately on education, health, infrastructure construction and the provision of facilities needed for accelerated development. This has moved all the factors included in Ibn Khaldun�s model in the negative direction. It has led to the prevalence of slums without proper sewage and rainwater drainage systems and paved roads, particularly in areas inhabited by the poor. Development has been slow and unemployment has risen. The worst victims of political illegitimacy and corruption are justice and development. The Future is Bright There is, however, no room for despondency. The reversal of the tide desired by Ibn Khaldun 600 years ago seems to be taking place now. Political illegitimacy is losing ground. Even the imperialist powers with whose moral and material support it has thrived, seem to have now realised that the prevalence of democracy is also in their own long-term interest. The writing on the horizon clearly indicates a movement in the direction of democracy, along with land reforms, a free press, a strong and independent judiciary, and the growth of effective and impartial institutions for detecting and punishing corruption and inefficiency. This will ultimately promote the use of public resources for the well-being of the people through the elimination of illiteracy, provision of high class education, improvement of health facilities, construction of infrastructure beyond the showpiece highways and buildings, and lead to the development of the economies of these countries. Female education is also spreading. This will enable women to not only ensure proper upbringing of their children but also contribute richly to the development of their societies. Democracy will force political parties to moderate their views to make themselves acceptable to broader sectors of the population, thus increasing tolerance and reducing extremist views. Fortunately, there is also a revival of Islam, raising hopes that material advance may also be accompanied by the moral uplift of Muslim countries. This should help ensure justice and social harmony, and further accelerate spiritual as well as material development of Muslim societies in the future. In other words, all indicators point toward the reversal of Ibn Khaldun�s cycle of circular causation from the negative to the positive direction. But alas, after a long period of suffering. (Concluded) [Dr. M. Umer Chapra is currently serving as Research Adviser in the Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI) of the Islamic Development Bank (IDB). Prior to this, he served as Senior Economic Adviser in SAMA from where he retired in 1999 after a long service of 35 years. As a result of his seminal contributions to Islamic Economics and Finance he received the King Faisal International Award in Islamic Studies in 1989. Courtesy: Ahlan Wasahlan, May 2004] *************************************************************************** {Invite (mankind, O Muhammad ) to the Way of your Lord (i.e. Islam) with wisdom (i.e. with the Divine Inspiration and the Qur'an) and fair preaching, and argue with them in a way that is better. Truly, your Lord knows best who has gone astray from His Path, and He is the Best Aware of those who are guided.} (Holy Quran-16:125) {And who is better in speech than he who [says: "My Lord is Allah (believes in His Oneness)," and then stands straight (acts upon His Order), and] invites (men) to Allah's (Islamic Monotheism), and does righteous deeds, and says: "I am one of the Muslims."} (Holy Quran-41:33) The prophet (peace and blessings of Allah be upon him) said: "By Allah, if Allah guides one person by you, it is better for you than the best types of camels." [al-Bukhaaree, Muslim] The prophet (peace and blessings of Allah be upon him) also said, "Whoever calls to guidance will have a reward similar to the reward of the one who follows him, without the reward of either of them being lessened at all." [Muslim, Ahmad, Aboo Daawood, an-Nasaa'ee, at-Tirmidhee, Ibn Maajah] -------------------------------------------------------------------------- All views expressed herein belong to the individuals concerned and do not in any way reflect the official views of IslamCity unless sanctioned or approved otherwise. If your mailbox clogged with mails from IslamCity, you may wish to get a daily digest of emails by logging-on to http://www.yahoogroups.com to change your mail delivery settings or email the moderators at [EMAIL PROTECTED] with the title "change to daily digest". Yahoo! Groups Links
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