In the wake of a United Nations investigation implicating a number of Syrian and Lebanese officials in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, the Bush administration is calling for international sanctions, and leaking dark hints of war. But the United States is already unofficially at war with Syria. For the past six months, U.S. Army Rangers and the Special Operations Delta Force have been crossing the border into Syria, supposedly to interdict terrorists coming into Iraq. Several Syrian soldiers have been killed.
The analogy the administration is using for this invasion? Cambodia.
Syria is an easier target than Iran. With the exception of its northern border, the country is a flat plain, less than half the size of Iraq and with a population of only 16.7 million. It is also reeling from the UN investigation.
This may make Syria look like fruit ripe for the picking, and an invasion would certainly divert attention from the chaos in Iraq and Afghanistan. It would also be a logical extension of the Bush administrations mythology that all our troubles in the Middle East are caused by foreign Islamic terrorists.
For the outcome of such a strategy see the war in Southeast Asia.
Iraq: A Tale of Two Speeches
By Col. Daniel Smith, U.S. Army (Ret.)
September 29, 2005 found General John Abizaid, Commander of U.S. Central Command, testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee. With him were the Secretary of Defense, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the top U.S. general in Iraq. The overall subject was the war on terror with its three subsets: global (including al-Qaida) jihad and the fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq. General Abizaids opening remarks emphasized his considered view (he is, like T.E. Lawrence, a hands-on student of the Middle East) of the underlying connections among these topics.
One week later October 6, President Bush spoke mid-morning to an audience at the National Endowment for Democracy. His topic was the war on terror. As this was by far the shorter of the two (when the questioning by committee members is included) and more readily available, I perused it first.
The presidents speech was a curious mixture. There were old themes and shop-worn mantras. By word count in the 40-minute address, the president vilified tyrants, tyranny, and autocrats a dozen times and commended democracy, democratic processes, and liberty 13 times. The presidents long-standing favorite concept, freedom, garnered 26 references but was outstripped by terror, terrorism, and terrorist at 30 repetitions.
Uncharacteristically, the usual uncompromisingly stark Manichean division of individuals and countries into good and evil was muted. Instead, the president spent a significant amount of time describing the ideology (14) of violence (11) being preached by al-Qaida and practiced by radicalized (21) and fanatical (4) militant extremists (24) who regard the West in general and the United States in particular as their enemy (24). Bush also tries to draw a parallel between the Cold War battle with communism won (7) by the West and al-Qaidas Islamo-fascism, both of which, in due time, are destined to be rejected because neither offers a vision (7) of human progress (7). And again he spoke of sacrifice (6) but only in general terms.
The penny dropped a few days later when I finally read through the transcript of the September 29 Senate hearing. Here, without question, was the presidents source, as the following illustrates (with commentary on selected issues).
Dan Smith is a military affairs analyst for Foreign Policy In Focus (online at www.fpif.org ), a retired U.S. Army colonel, and a senior fellow on military affairs at the Friends Committee on National Legislation.
See new FPIF commentary online at:
http://fpif.org/fpiftxt/2922
With printer-friendly pdf version at:
http://fpif.org/pdf/papers/0511speeches.pdf
Planting the Seeds of Al-Qaidas Second Generation
By Fawaz A. Gerges
The American-led invasion and occupation of Iraq has provided al-Qaida with a new lease on life, a second generation of recruits and fighters, and a powerful outlet to expand its ideological outreach activities to Muslims worldwide. Statements by al-Qaida top chiefs, including bin Laden, Zawahiri, Zarqawi, and Seif al-Adl, portray the unfolding confrontation in Iraq as a "golden and unique opportunity" for the global jihad movement to engage and defeat the United States and spread the conflict into neighboring Arab states in Syria, Lebanon, and the Palestine-Israeli theater. The global war is not going well for bin Laden, and Iraq enabled him to convince his jihadist followers that al-Qaida is still alive and kicking despite suffering crippling operational setbacks in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and elsewhere.
The United States and the international community could have found intelligent means to nourish and support the internal forces that were opposed to militant ideologies like the bin Laden network. The way to go was not to declare a worldwide war against an unconventional, paramilitary foe with a tiny or no social base of support and try to settle scores with old regional dictators. That is exactly what bin Laden and his senior associates had hoped the United States would dolash out militarily against the ummah. As Seif al-Adal, al-Qaidas overall military commander recently put it, "The Americans took the bait and fell into our trap."
Fawaz A. Gerges holds the Christian A. Johnson Chair in International Affairs and Middle Eastern Studies at Sarah Lawrence College and is a contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus (www.fpif.org ). He is the author of America and Political Islam: Clash of Interests or Clash of Cultures? (Cambridge, 1999), The Far Enemy: Why Jihad Went Global (Cambridge, 2005) and The Journey of the Jihadis: A Biography of a State of Mind (Harcourt Press, 2006).
See new FPIF commentary online at:
http://fpif.org/fpiftxt/2906
With printer-friendly pdf version at:
http://fpif.org/pdf/0510seeds.pdf
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