Hi,
    I used Java in the last 5 years and I just started learning Flash earlier
this year. IMHO,
    It depends on what you want to do in your development. Java is a more
general
    technology. You can do server side stuff, 3D, and other things. Flash is
more than
    a file format. It is an exciting tool for vector based graphics, bitmap, and
sound for
    web delivery. It's IDE allows very rapid results (good for prototyping
work).
    For 2D multimedia animation content creation, Java can't beat it. However,
it does
    not support 3D nor complex GUI! The current version of Flash supports full
blown
    JavaScripts so that one can create complex behavior for objects with it. If
it is a simple
    app that has a lot of 2D graphics, sound, video, ..., Flash would do the
job. If it is a complex
    application (business solution, server, or 3D application), Java would be a
better choice.

Alvin

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