I (and probably most people on this forum) would generally agree with
everything you said. Flash/Flex is generally a more mature platform
for most web RIA projects.

Personally, I'm really excited about JavaFX, I love the concise and
elegant syntax, but I don't think there is any game changing reasons
people should drop other technology that they are happy with.

JavaFX does have an advantage on mobile phones, Silverlight has an
advantage with Microsoft-centric shops, and Flash is currently the
most mature browser plug-in platform.

For the moment, there is probably room for all of them to compete.
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