Let's think it through. None of this makes any sense. Either Oracle is stupid (and don't underestimate the weirdness inherent in sufficiently big companies. Internal politics are invisible, so we don't know what's behind a decision, and thus weird, seemingly stupid decisions can occur), or they are scheming something rather weird. Here are the options as far as I see them:
The "simple" explanation: This is what it looks like: A play to squeeze money out of google, and probably later on other companies, to start paying for the rights to use anything that smells like a VM. They'd be going after LLVM and the CLR next, maybe, and/or web browsers (javascript engines, especially the modern JITting ones, use a lot of relevant tech that seems to be covered by these patents, mostly because they are ridiculously broad. Think one click patent!) Why not: That doesn't make any sense - because this isn't how you do it. Oracle is on _extremely_ shaky ground here, they've got overly broad patents, that are at risk of being overturned due to prior art, and (and this is crucial for the US court system) have not been protected. Sun has furthermore demoed android and praised it at conferences, which precedent wise doesn't really help Oracle when Google countersues based on the notion that Oracle is being a litigious jackass (IANAL, but if you can prove in court Sun/Oracle has waited until Google had no way out and pay oracle whatever licensing fee it wanted, then it's extortion and will be thrown out. By not defending the patent for 5 years and having shown rather clearly that at least sun's tech staff was well aware of how android works internally, it would seem to me that making this case is trivial!). If this is really the play, wouldn't it make far more sense to go after Opera (Yes, non-US company, but they can still opera from doing business in the US. If that's at stake and oracle offers a relatively cheap license option, Jon von Tetzchner would probably take it). You KNOW how this goes: Jackass lawyer setups go after small companies, hound them into paying a (usually very amicably priced) licensing fee, threatening with a very expensive high quality army of lawyers. Once enough of these licensing deals have been made, you go after bigger targets to leverage the precedent that has been set in these cases. You don't go after google, who has an extremely skilled and expansive army of lawyers of their own. Further reason this is stupid: The last time a company tried a grand litigation like this, they completely failed: SCO vs. Novell / the world. maybe why this is it after all: It's the simplest (seeming) explanation. Also, oracle has relatively little to lose, whereas google risks pretty much their entire android base. i.e. they are gambling that google, even realizing they stand 90%+ chance of winning this, would still rather throw a billion or so oracle's way and guarantee the safety of android. Still, they'd HAVE to buy indemnity for the OEMs too, because otherwise what's the point? That would mean that from there Oracle can only go after the CLR, which would suggest that Oracle won't settle for anything less than a LOT of money to justify the PR loss on this one. The more money they want, the more likely google will fight instead of settle. Now lets get to the interesting scenarios: The buy java play: Maybe oracle will offer google a deal: We drop the suit and give you ALL java assets if you pay us X billion. i.e. Larry and friends have looked long and hard at the java side of the deal and decide that they don't want it anymore. They want cash instead. If they deem Mysql as worth a billion, they get 3.5 billion for java from google, then they effectively bought a massive hardware company to start releasing oracle branded boxes, in addition to a unix OS to run on top of it, for a 'mere' 2.5 billion. why not: Isn't it a bit early for that? If this is the oracle plan, I'd have sabotaged a few choice projects first, such as glassfish, or at least bound them as tightly to oracle as possible. Maybe implode netbeans too, or, again, at least force through tight integration with oracle stuff. Also, back when oracle announced the deal, there were rumours that oracle would in fact jettison the hardware aspects, i.e. folks thought oracle liked sun primarily for java. Wouldn't make much sense for Oracle to ditch that now. The JavaFX play: Oracle is going to offer to settle + indemnify IF google puts in the effort to make JavaFX distributables (i.e. class files) run on android phones. why not: Seems a bit drastic and strong-army; why piss off this badly a company that you clearly want to succeed, and trust will succeed (if you go to these lengths to force their hand in adding JavaFX to their lineup, I assume you have faith they're in it for the long haul!) - was there really no other way? The bully play: Go on a suing spree, and start spreading the word that customers of oracle won't ever get bitten by any of it. Eventually drop or settle most cases, because the goal was merely to use these to scare folks into buying into the oracle strategy. why not: That's be completely insane. Think about it. Who the heck is going to tie their company's future to a litiguous behemoth that's seemingly gone lawyer crazy? The google is a lighter target than microsoft play: Sue google now, arrange for an amicable deal that nevertheless puts down on paper that google was in the wrong, which should shore up those patents considerably. Then go after the real target: Bother microsoft yet again, and sue them for patent breach on the CLR. The goal then is either to squeeze another billion or two out of microsoft, or possibly to kill the CLR. There aren't all that many high-profile VM makers out there, so if goal is purely to shore up specific VM-related patents, google might actually be the 'lightest' legal target out there, not so much in that their legal team is a pushover, but that its the only company Oracle is willing to settle quickly with. The JCP play: Oracle now owns both the Sun and the Oracle JCP seats. If they can indemnify google in this lawsuit in trade for their votes in the JCP, they've got a number of JCP seats under their own control. why not: That sounds ridiculous; Apache is only going to gain momentum after such a move. IBM, Intel, SAP - they're all going to cave in fear of litigation? I don't think so. Everyone that doesn't cave is going to do the apache thing and vote nay on anything sunoracle proposes as a matter of principle. Buying / litigating their way into every JCP seat is FAR too expensive compared to the benefits of owning the JCP. I'd be nice if this vibe of: There's gotta be some seekrit agenda in play here! spreads and that a side like groklaw goes through the legal likelyhood of all these scenarios. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "The Java Posse" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/javaposse?hl=en.
