On Fri, May 13, 2011 at 2:57 AM, Josh Berry <[email protected]> wrote:

> Chiming in to agree with Cédric.  Though, I will say I think I have a
> slightly different view.  I will grant that Apple is likely doing
> better in every way than any single PC maker.  I wouldn't even be
> shocked if they are competing on volume with the best of them.  What I
> don't think is that they are beating them all combined.


I guess this is the same as Cédric's point about Apple needing at least 50%
of the market. But I don't see why both of you see this as the *only* metric
that matters. My point is that this "war" isn't being fought on a single
front.

I suggested four fronts on which I think Apple is winning or extremely
competitive: profit, mindshare, hardware market share and software
ecosystem. Cédric wants to reduce the whole thing down to OS market share,
in which Apple is obviously way behind (has Windows 7 increased the Windows
installed base?).

My objection is that is creates a really weird analytical framework in which
the biggest and fastest-growing consumer electronics company in the world "is
nowhere near [winning] as of today". Last year, Apple hardware (Mac + iPad)
grew 187%. If they can grow by 50% this year and HP continues its downards
trend, they'll be on the cusp of being the #1 manufacturer. So, as far as
manufacturers go, they actually are near winning as of today. Kirk is right
to ask how long this can go on, but right now the only thing limiting their
growth seems to be how many iPads they can produce.

Moandji

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