Hi all, thanks for the advice. Apologies for not posting back to the group 
earlier with my resolution.

It turns out, I am nearly certain this is a problem with running the 
upgrade on Docker. This is docker-for-mac.

I found several other instances in non-Jenkins software of Java errorring 
due to NIO UnixCopyFile.move(), on docker. 
https://github.com/elastic/elasticsearch/issues/24231 and  
https://github.com/tuub/kitodo-mediaserver/issues/108 are examples.

When I ran the upgrade on one of our jenkins test servers -- these are ec2 
linux instances, no docker in play -- from 2.121.3 to the latest LTS 
version, the upgrade and User migration happened as expected.

Best,

Marc

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