Hi Allen,

We are using a bit of research Paul Cohen did a few years ago at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst on Heuristic Reasoning about Uncertainty. We are applying variations of those concepts to various Health care and BioSurveillance problems for the last six years. So far we have found it to be effective.

Their is a paperback, published by Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, from a series they did on Research Notes in Artificial Intelligence.

The title is: "Heuristic Reasoning about Uncertainty: An Artificial Intelligence Approach."

I recommend giving it a review, it worked well for us, with a bit of adaptation for practical implementation.

Hope that helps,

Craig


On Mar 9, 2010, at 10:46 AM, Allan51 wrote:


Backward chaining systems have certainty factors and other schemes for
accumulating evidence or belief during inference. Does anybody know of a
way for a forward chaining system to accumulate belief?  Any papers or
implementations I could look at?
I see there is a Fuzzy JESS. That is not quite what I am looking for. I need to build up some notion of how strongly a proposition is supported as
the rules infer more bits of evidence for and against it.
 thanks, Allan
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