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"John Ashworth"
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A good piece of analysis by Reuters (#1), and an example of how this
is being spun in some quarters of the Islamic press (#2).
1. ANALYSIS - Tank seizure highlights Sudan arms build-up
Fri 10 Oct 2008, 9:32 GMT
By Andrew Heavens
KHARTOUM, Oct 10 (Reuters) - The seizure of a shipload of tanks that
many believe were destined for south Sudan has put a spotlight on a
build-up of arms in Africa's largest country by the sides that signed
a peace deal in 2005.
Diplomatic sources and campaigners say both the northern based
government and southern former rebels are covertly stockpiling weapons
in fear that flashpoint events in coming years could plunge them back
into conflict.
"It is absolutely clear that both sides are recruiting and re-arming.
This is undisputed," said Robert Muggah, research director from the
Geneva-based Small Arms Survey.
The rules of the north-south peace deal ban either side from
replenishing arms or ammunition without the approval of their Joint
Defence Board, but experts say that is being flouted.
Both north and south Sudan regularly deny they are building up their
armies or breaking the terms of the peace agreement.
But diplomats, the U.S. navy, a maritime agency and the pirates who
seized the cargo of Ukrainian tanks off Somalia last month believe
they were headed for south Sudan via Kenya despite the denials of
south Sudanese and Kenyan authorities.
Kenya has said the tanks were destined for its army.
Whether the tanks were going to south Sudan or not, military experts
said there were signs of at least two other deliveries of tanks to the
south in recent months.
"They're doing that because they know that north Sudan is also
re-arming. The situation is very, very volatile," said Fouad Hikmat,
Horn of Africa director for the International Crisis Group.
SOUTH
A foreign security source said the southern SPLA army brought in at
least 10 tanks from Ethiopia to the region of Kurmuk in Sudan's remote
southern Blue Nile State in early July.
A U.N. official in Khartoum said the southern army gave assurances
they were old tanks that had gone for maintenance but had not given
registration numbers so that could be confirmed.
A number of disassembled tanks also came into Kenya's Mombasa port in
November, before being brought to Sudan, said Thoko Kaime, of
London-based Exclusive Analysis.
"Nobody wants to start a war," said a source close to the south's
dominant Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), speaking on
condition of anonymity.
"But the south is building up its army as a show of strength to act as
a deterrent ... There's a big concern. Most people (in the south)
think that the north will try to cause problems ... The issue of trust
is not there."
Relations between north and south Sudan have remained strained since
the 2005 deal and troops have clashed, most recently in May, over the
oil-producing region of Abyei that is claimed by both sides.
Other possible points of friction on the horizon include a ruling on
Abyei's future, the results of a census that are likely to be
contested, elections due next year and a referendum scheduled for 2011
on whether the south can secede.
There are no global embargoes to prevent north and south Sudan
maintaining armies. The only world-wide arms embargo in force in Sudan
covers the government and armed groups in the separate Darfur
conflict.
AND NORTH
"Khartoum has been building up its arms quite a lot recently. It has
been buying its equipment from Ukraine. It has been buying lots of
Russian-originated arms," said Gill Lusk, from the London-based Africa
Confidential newsletter.
"It has been buying fighter planes in the last couple of years."
She also pointed to two military cooperation deals that Khartoum had
signed with Iran in the past year.
Sudan's army has said it is now self-sufficient in conventional
weapons, has begun building unmanned surveillance planes, and is
developing missiles. A rise in oil prices and output has helped the
government build up its arsenal.
There are no signs that north-south conflict is imminent.
Both sides calmed tensions over Abyei and showed some unity over a
Darfur rebel attack on Khartoum in May and in opposing efforts by the
International Criminal Court's prosecutor to try President Omar Hassan
al-Bashir for war crimes in Darfur.
Longer term, the problems are far from resolved however.
"I don't think the south wants to attack the north. But I think they
know the north will attack them at some point," said Lusk. "The
northern government doesn't want the south to secede. It wants the
oil. It wants its springboard into Africa."
Because both sides know they are breaking the terms of their peace
deal when it comes to rearming, they may be cautious of drawing
attention to each other's breaches, insiders believe.
Britain, the United States and other Western powers who also backed
the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Deal are also keen to see it succeed and
could be reluctant to draw too much attention to signs of it fraying.
A senior diplomatic source in Khartoum said one reason for the
relative silence was because the risks of a complete fall-out between
the north and south were too high.
"It could be difficult if it all came out into the public domain. I
wouldn't be surprised if both parties maintained a fiction," said the
diplomat.
(Additional reporting by Skye Wheeler in Juba; Editing by Matthew Tostevin)
(c) Reuters 2008.
END1
2. Pirates: West plans to destroy Sudan
Fri, 10 Oct 2008 17:43:13 GMT
Press TV Iran)
Somali pirates say the weapons aboard the seized Ukrainian ship MV
Faina are part of the West's 'secret' plans for 'destroying' Sudan.
Sudan's Christian opposition groups were meant to receive the on-board
armament and use it against the Muslim majority and the Omar Al-Bashir
administration, a spokesman for the pirates told Press TV.
We have documents proving that the weapons were earmarked for the
Christian Sudanese opposition, pirates' spokesman Sugule Ali said,
inviting the Arab League and the international news outlets emissaries
to verify his claims.
The evidence point to the conclusion that the West seeks a strong
foothold in Sudan, Ali said.
On September 25, the MV Faina and its 17 crewmembers were captured off
Somalia's coastal region of Puntland where the pirates' presence has
complicated naval transportation.
The vessel allegedly holds around 100 pieces of military hardware
including tanks, anti-aircraft missiles and automatic weapons.
The Kenyan port of Mombassa had been chosen as a stopover for the ship
en route to Sudan, the pirates' spokesman Ali said. He also warned
Kenya against laying any claims to the weapons and accused Nairobi of
fueling Sudan's crisis.
The spokesman added despite the international condemnation of their
banditry, they would not pose any threats neither to the UN aid
convoys to Somalia nor the vessels docking at Somali ports for
business.
The pirate called on the concerned nations to task an impartial
committee with addressing the stalemate in Somali waters.
HN/MMN
END2
--
John Ashworth
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Denis Hurley Peace Institute
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+27 12 326 6218 (fax - international)
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