Top US Africa diplomat: success of South Sudan dependent on North
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March 6, 2011 (LONDON) – A leading US diplomat for Africa spoke of the
importance of a successful north Sudan in the future of the Republic
of South Sudan (RoSS) at a UK think-tank meeting on the 6 March.


US Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Africa Affairs,
Johnnie Carson pictured in Germany in 2009 (Photo: Vince Crawley, US
Africa Command)US Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of
Africa Affairs, Johnnie Carson, spoke of US perspectives and policy
goals as the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) approaches its
conclusion with the declaration of the independence of RoSS, at the
London-based analysis, debate and ideas institute, Chatham House.

He covered future relations between north and South Sudan and
independently; Darfur; security; the road map given to the Khartoum
government which could see them removed from the US State Sponsors of
Terrorism list; and more.

REFERENDUM VOTE

Carson said the referendum vote “demonstrated the ability of the
Sudanese people working together with representatives from Africa and
the rest of the international community to overcome enormous obstacles
and set the country on path towards peace and renewal.”

Despite the fact that this time last year “Little if any preparation
was underway. South Sudan Referendum Commission [SSRC] was not
functioning. Key provisions of the CPA were unimplemented and many
observers doubted northern leaders would allow the referendum to allow
without challenges or accept its results without discrediting them.”

He described the referendum as a “remarkable achievement and success”
for which the AU, UN and governments of north and South Sudan “deserve
enormous credit”.

POST-REFERENDUM DIALOGUE

He warned that the formation of South Sudan as “a viable and
self-sustaining nation [...] may take decades to realise.”

He believes that they “must build upon the momentum and goodwill
generated by the successful referendum to push the parties to make
critical compromises on some remaining difficult issues.” This
includes the popular consultations and citizenship.

He was concerned that many people in South Kordofan and Blue Nile
states, where the popular consultations will take place “have retained
the weapons and their loyalty to the SPLM.” The citizens of these
areas will be consulted on whether they see the CPA as the final
settlement between north and South Sudan.

On the subject of the status of Abyei, which he described as
“complex”, he said “further procrastination could exacerbate an
already volatile situation.” Abyei is an oil-rich region on the border
between north and South Sudan. Its statehood is still a matter of
dispute.

“Agreement was reached on Abyei in Naivasha and the decision of the
Abyei boundary commission was meant to be final and binding. The
north’s refusal to accept the decision however led to arbitration that
severely delayed the implementation of the Abyei protocol stipulated
by the CPA.”

The status of “as many as 2 million” southerners living in north Sudan
and fewer northerners in South Sudan is a “major potential flashpoint”
- citizenship rights should be agreed upon by both states.

ECONOMY OF SOUTH SUDAN

If South Sudan is to assert its economic independence, it is important
to recognise the importance of north Sudan in the “interdependence of
the countries’ oil sectors,” due to factors such as the “irreplaceable
expertise and critical infrastructure” in the north.

He warned that “grandiose plans for an alternative pipeline and export
route which could cost billions of dollars and take many years to
execute should only be considered if they make commercial and economic
sense. For the moment, the economic case for moving forward on such an
independent effort does not exist.”

FUTURE TIES BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH SUDAN

Carson encouraged north and South Sudan to “sustain and deepen their
ties” to resolve issues over debt allocation, foreign embassies,
currency.

He gave France and Germany as an example of how once warring nations
can normalise relations, and India and Pakistan, and Ethiopia and
Eritrea as examples of what can happen if the separation process is
unsuccessful.

South has a “series of especially hard internal challenges” to contest
with. He gave the example of militia groups who “pose an ongoing
security threat in the absence of a strong, professional,
appropriately sized and equipped and configured military and security”

The US will “help it address issues of security sector reform and
demobilisation.” “The Republic of South Sudan will be one of the most
disadvantaged states to join the international community over the past
century. Its institutional foundations are weak. Much of the area has
virtually no transportation.”

He voiced concern for the future, saying that “transparent and
democratic process should be the political standard for the southern
Sudanese people” whose expectations should be realistic and
achievable.

NORTH SUDAN

He assured north Sudan that “we are as committed in Washington to
helping it [Khartoum] work through these challenges as we are with
working with the government in South Sudan.”

He lauded the fact that Khartoum “took an enormous risk” when it
fulfilled its CPA commitment to readily accept whatever the outcome of
the referendum vote was.

DARFUR

“The US has presented the Sudanese government with a clear roadmap
towards normalised and improved relations, including an eventual
removal of Sudan from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list. Fully
normalised relations, however, are contingent upon achieving a
non-military resolution to the ongoing conflict and humanitarian
crisis in Darfur.”

Sudan has been on the State Sponsors of Terrorism list since 1993,
resulting in trade sanctions and financial restrictions.

We will do our part to “dissuade the Southern Sudanese government from
them [Darfur rebel groups] militarily.”

“Darfur is and should remain an integral part of Sudan.” Carson called
upon Khartoum to allow NGOs “regular, unimpeded access” to affected
areas in Darfur.

“Khartoum will have to take risks, as it has with South Sudan, to
prove to its sceptics that it is serious about achieving peace in
Darfur.”

FUTURE OF NORTH SUDAN

“Despite its oil wealth and the economic boom observed in Khartoum
over the past decade living conditions in much of northern Sudan
remain far below their potential and promise.”

“We will continue to encourage the government of Sudan to allow for a
more open political space, democratic norms, and greater respect for
human rights, just as we do with all of Sudan’s neighbours.”

“We are concerned by the constraints on free speech and political activity.”

“Sudan’s future stability and prosperity is contingent on making
steady progress on democracy and government. The government need only
look to its northern neighbours to understand the ultimate
consequences if it does not.”

(ST)

There is an audio recording of Johnnie Carson’s talk at Chatham House
on their website.

http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/18806_070311carson.mp3

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