A lesson South Sudan armed groups from Libyan crisis
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By Zechariah Manyok Biar
March 21, 2011 — Citizens in Africa and in the Arab World who were
eagerly waiting for their turn to change their dictators in the
Tunisian and Egyptian style might now be reconsidering their planned
actions. The choice made by the Libyan demonstrators to arm themselves
against their dictator Muammar Gaddafi is a great mistake.
It is clear that the demonstrators were in danger of losing many
people to Gaddafi’s forces during their peaceful demonstration, but
the mistake is that they have now chosen a side that isolates them in
the eyes of the Libyans who initially supported the protest against
Gaddafi. Libyans all over Libya who wanted to force Gaddafi out of
power were determined to die in the hands of what they believed to be
foreign fighters, fighting for Gaddafi only. Such a belief was
eventually going to convince the Libyan army to be on the side of the
people.
Now, the army is fighting against what they believe to be rebels, not
the peaceful demonstrators that they wanted to side with. A large
number of women and children who were part of the demonstration will
play a minimal role in the current armed rebellion against the
Government. Tribes that are loyal to Gaddafi will now defend him
because they may perceive the rebels as threats to their tribal
interests and identities. Government officials who like a short term
regime change will now side with the Government in order to have
something on the table for their families.
The international community will also slow down on asking Gaddafi to
step down since there are laws that apply to armed rebellion. Armed
rebels are not regarded as innocent by the international community.
So, those who were planning to support the demonstrators in Libya will
now think twice on how they market their support to the members of the
United Nations Security Council. One permanent member in the Security
Council can veto any military action against Gaddafi’s Government if
such action does not convince his or her country. The United States is
already stretched to the point where intervention is something its
leaders are reluctant to engage in before they free themselves from
Iraq and Afghanistan.
The Libyan rebels are now on their own. They will have to accept both
a defeat from Gaddafi’s forces and end the rebellion, or they will
have to plan for a lengthy liberation war. Tough choices.
I once wrote that one should not kick the buttock of an elephant if he
knows he is not strong enough. Anybody who sings the song of violent
must first check his muscles.
We have now seen that those who took arms against some Governors in
South Sudan in the year 2010 have not yet ousted the Governors that
they wanted to topple. They have now discovered that the process of
toppling a leader militarily is not easy. These renegade Generals must
first defeat the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and other
organized forces before ousting those Governors. They will then have
to convince the Government in Juba that they are no threat to its
leaders before they are allowed to sit in state offices that they may
occupy by force. Will they succeed? I doubt.
Am I saying here that the SPLM/A were wrong in taking arms against the
Khartoum Government in May, 1983? The answer to this question is no
for two reasons: First, there was not even an imperfect democracy
existed in the Sudan of that time. To make matters worse, Shari’a Law
was declared the Law of the Government by the time of the rebellion.
Second, the SPLM/A knew it would stand against the Government in
Khartoum militarily because it was able to rally the marginalized
people all over Sudan against the regime in Khartoum.
This is not the case now for those who have armed themselves against
the Governors of Jonglei and Unity States. Their focus is so narrow
that they cannot convince more than ten tribes to join them against
those Governors. So, the rebellion of people like George Athor against
Governors like Kuol Manyang of Jonglei State will fail or it will be
lengthy if it is to succeed magically.
To avoid the Libyans’ mistake, our politicians should follow a
democratic means that convinces both the local citizens and the
international community to side with them. Armed rebellion against any
elected leader does not have a place in a democratic society, however
imperfect such a democracy could be.
Any armed rebellion must have a clear justification in order to get
enough support locally and internationally. Losing elections in
democratic elections is not a good reason for taking arms against an
elected Government; however messy one regards the process of
elections. Demonstrations in democracy are the only way to change
imperfection in democracy, even to the point of toppling dictators
like we witnessed in Tunisia and Egypt this year.
Zechariah Manyok Biar, BA. Edu., MACM, MSSW. He can be reached at
[email protected]
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