Are Bashir’s Pieces in Place for Annexation of Oil Fields? "As we speak, Abyei is being depopulated of its rightful owners, the Ngok Dinka, while at the same time, settled upon by Arab tribes of Southern Kordofan". 24 May 2011
By Jacob J Akol By invading Abyei on Saturday, May 21, President Mohamed Omar al-Bashir must have come to the conclusion that the pieces he has been trying to put together since he signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, CPA, in Nairobi, Kenya, on January 5, 2005, are now fully in place. Abyei is just the beginning, should the international community and external parties to the CPA let him get away with it; but, what more can they do to him that they have not done already? Invade the Sudan and arrest him to answer for crimes against humanity in Darfur – and now Abyei? Pretty unlikely and Bashir knows it. As we speak, Abyei is being depopulated of its rightful owners, the Ngok Dinka, while at the same time, settled upon by Arab tribes of Southern Kordofan. The Security Council may talk and even issue threats, while the United Nations armed forces in Abyei look on helplessly. As the UNIMIS (United Nations Mission in Sudan) is being ordered to leave North Sudan, they will sooner than later be told to get out of Abyei or expelled by Bashir’s forces or his proxies. His next step is to invade the South and follow a line along the north bank of River Kiir (just below Abyei town) up to where it joins River Bahr al Gazal, continue along the north bank of that river all the way to its junction with the White Nile, and annexing Malakal northward, continue all the way to the border of Southern Blue Nile State with the South and Ethiopia. Such a border, which has been floated before, will include practically all the current functioning oil fields in South Sudan’s territory. No doubt, President Bashir, armed to the teeth with latest weapons from China and Iran, must believe that his armed forces, alongside South Sudanese militiamen it has armed and continue arming to destabilise the South, will defend such a long border and continue to exploit the oil. If it were anyone else, not Omar Bashir, such a plan could never have been contemplated, leave alone executed; but it is Bashir, who by now must have come to believe that his long reign in power is blessed by Allah and will never end. Having the South as an eternal enemy of his God – rather than a friend - and therefore at war with the North, should guarantee him another five years or a decade in power. What will then be on the table is another peace agreement between North and South on the January 1, 1956 borders. By then, the occupation of Abyei will have become fate accompli, of course. Remember Morocco and invasion of Sahrawi? The UN is now at liberty to hold a referendum in that territory; but we all know who is there. Will this be the fate of Abyei? Only time will tell. *Jacob J Akol is Chief Editor of Gurtong Trust – Peace & Media Project Posted in: Opinions -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "JFD info" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/jfdinfo?hl=en.
