---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Thu, May 26, 2011 at 12:53 PM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Fwd: First Step towards Annexation of Southern Oil Fields? To: Group <[email protected]>
A very interesting opinion by Jacob Akol. A year or two ago when examining possible scenarios for 2011, the idea that Khartoum might pursue a limited war to annexe the oil fields of Unity and Upper Nile States seemed very plausible, with the proviso that the war would be unlikely to remain "limited" and would soon escalate into full-scale war involving not only the South but also Darfur, Nuba Mountains, Blue Nile and the Eastern Front. After Khartoum was comprehensively out-manoeuvred over the referendum (which it had tried unsuccessfully first to abort and then to delay and sabotage), and after the referendum delivered such a resounding and credible result for southern secession that the NCP appeared to have no choice but to cooperate (with the added bonus of rewards from the international community), scenarios predicting war faded into the background. One would still hope that Khartoum's seizure of Abyei against the terms of the CPA is limited and the NCP will not pursue military ambitions south of the border (except through the proxy war that it has already been waging for several months via southern "rebel" militias). However Akol's question as to whether the seizure of Abyei is a first step towards annexing the southern oil fields deserves to be taken seriously, and the international community which has recognised the results of the referendum needs to be vigilant in guaranteeing the territorial integrity of the new Republic of South Sudan. John BEGIN Are Bashir’s Pieces in Place for Annexation of Oil Fields? "As we speak, Abyei is being depopulated of its rightful owners, the Ngok Dinka, while at the same time, settled upon by Arab tribes of Southern Kordofan". 24 May 2011 By Jacob J Akol By invading Abyei on Saturday, May 21, President Mohamed Omar al-Bashir must have come to the conclusion that the pieces he has been trying to put together since he signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, CPA, in Nairobi, Kenya, on January 5, 2005, are now fully in place. Abyei is just the beginning, should the international community and external parties to the CPA let him get away with it; but, what more can they do to him that they have not done already? Invade the Sudan and arrest him to answer for crimes against humanity in Darfur – and now Abyei? Pretty unlikely and Bashir knows it. As we speak, Abyei is being depopulated of its rightful owners, the Ngok Dinka, while at the same time, settled upon by Arab tribes of Southern Kordofan. The Security Council may talk and even issue threats, while the United Nations armed forces in Abyei look on helplessly. As the UNIMIS (United Nations Mission in Sudan) is being ordered to leave North Sudan, they will sooner than later be told to get out of Abyei or expelled by Bashir’s forces or his proxies. His next step is to invade the South and follow a line along the north bank of River Kiir (just below Abyei town) up to where it joins River Bahr al Gazal, continue along the north bank of that river all the way to its junction with the White Nile, and annexing Malakal northward, continue all the way to the border of Southern Blue Nile State with the South and Ethiopia. Such a border, which has been floated before, will include practically all the current functioning oil fields in South Sudan’s territory. No doubt, President Bashir, armed to the teeth with latest weapons from China and Iran, must believe that his armed forces, alongside South Sudanese militiamen it has armed and continue arming to destabilise the South, will defend such a long border and continue to exploit the oil. If it were anyone else, not Omar Bashir, such a plan could never have been contemplated, leave alone executed; but it is Bashir, who by now must have come to believe that his long reign in power is blessed by Allah and will never end. Having the South as an eternal enemy of his God – rather than a friend - and therefore at war with the North, should guarantee him another five years or a decade in power. What will then be on the table is another peace agreement between North and South on the January 1, 1956 borders. By then, the occupation of Abyei will have become fate accompli, of course. Remember Morocco and invasion of Sahrawi? The UN is now at liberty to hold a referendum in that territory; but we all know who is there. Will this be the fate of Abyei? Only time will tell. *Jacob J Akol is Chief Editor of Gurtong Trust – Peace & Media Project END ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan Advisor Sudan Ecumenical Forum [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +249 919 695 362 (Sudan mobile) +27 82 853 3556 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "sudan-john-ashworth" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.co.za/group/sudan-john-ashworth -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "JFD info" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/jfdinfo?hl=en.
