---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Eric Reeves <[email protected]>
Date: Sat, Jun 4, 2011 at 6:08 AM
Subject: Extending the Timeline for Abyei: May 27 – June 3, 2011
To: [email protected]
Extending the Timeline for Abyei: May 27 – June 3, 2011
A UN internal report suggests "ethnic cleansing"; an already acute
humanitarian crisis deepens as fuel for aid operations continues to be
blocked by Khartoum; there is no meaningful diplomatic progress, even
as the military threat to the Nuba Mountains and southern Blue Nile
grows; the UN Security Council "strongly condemns" Khartoum's invasion
of Abyei and "demands" that the regime "withdraw immediately from the
Abyei area." The Council "further demands the immediate withdrawal of
all military elements from Abyei," and "calls on the Sudanese Armed
Forces to ensure an immediate halt to all looting, burning and illegal
resettlement."
Eric Reeves
June 3, 2011
This timeline extends a previous, more historical effort ("An Abyei
Timeline: The Long Road to Khartoum's Military Invasion," May 27, 2011
at http://www.sudanreeves.org/Article328.html ) (all dates here are in
bold). The present account treats only the period from May 27 to June
3, but during this extraordinary week a great deal has occurred, even
without significant new military developments. Charges of ethnic
cleansing, crimes against humanity, and war crimes have come from
various quarters; reports on the humanitarian conditions in the Abyei
region and Warrap, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, and Unity states in South
Sudan are highly alarming. Khartoum seems determined not to withdraw
its military forces from Abyei or to yield to any diplomatic overture
from the South or the international community; as a consequence there
is no prospect of the many tens of thousands of Dinka Ngok returning
to the homes and land from which they have been violently
displaced—unless the UN Security Council is serious about its
"demands," a doubtful proposition.
The immediate military threat to the Nuba Mountains and southern Blue
Nile has diminished while the senior U.S. counter-terrorism official,
John Brennan, has been in the region, including in Khartoum. But the
threat already issued has not been withdrawn: on May 24 President
al-Bashir declared that his army will respond "aggressively" to
"provocations" by the SPLA and told Khartoum radio that he has given
the "green light" to his forces to "respond to any violations"
committed by the SPLA. He has insistently reiterated that "Abyei is
North Sudanese land…our armed forces will not withdraw from this
land." He has also declared that Khartoum is "prepared for a new
war."
On May 31, Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) spokesperson Al-Sawarmi Khalid
Sa'ad echoed earlier warnings that the regime in Khartoum had given
the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) until June 1 to withdraw all
troops from the Nuba and southern Blue Nile. Most SPLA troops in
these regions consider themselves to be in their native region, and
will not easily be disarmed, especially in the Nuba. Extremely bloody
conflict looms, and may extend into the South and Unity State, where
the most lucrative oil sites are located. Despite the impressive
restraint shown to date by the Government of South Sudan
(GOSS)—President Salva Kiir and the GOSS leadership—there can be
little doubt that a military incursion into the South by the SAF would
precipitate renewed civil war at the very moment in which South Sudan
is scheduled to become an independent country.
An overview of recent events, up to May 27 (roughly one quarter of the
present text):
By May 21 the military seizure of all of Abyei, including Abyei town,
is largely completed. The Satellite Sentinel Project (SSP) reports
(May 24) on the details of the invasion revealed by satellite
photography, including Khartoum’s use of military air assets.
May 24: Reports begin to emerge of widespread "organized looting" and
destruction of Abyei town by Misseriya militia members, assisted by
SAF soldiers. SSP ground photographs show "northern soldiers standing
by as militia members load trucks full of looted food and other
goods." This is confirmed in an SSP report of May 26, 2011, which
uses satellite photography as well as ground photography from Abyei
town. Both humanitarian food stores and medical supplies are among
the targets of the looters, as UN IRIN reports (May 27, 2011):
"Facilities run by other UN agencies and NGOs in the town have also
been targeted. 'Items looted include medical supplies, surgical
equipment, non-food items and water and hygiene equipment. These
supplies had been dispatched to Abyei town in recent weeks to respond
to urgent needs of the town residents and the rural population of
surrounding villages,' the UN Country Team in Sudan stated."
May 25: The New York Times reports in its lead paragraph on Abyei:
"After seizing a disputed town on the border of the breakaway region
of southern Sudan on Saturday, the army of northern Sudan is now
facilitating a relatively large influx of nomadic people into the
area, according to new United Nations field reports. United Nations
officials said the move could mean that the Sudanese government is
trying to 'ethnically cleanse' the area, in a bid to permanently
change its demographics and annex the town, Abyei, just weeks before
southern Sudan is supposed to split off from the north and form its
own country." (emphasis added)
This is the first of several accusations of "ethnic cleansing,"
including one made in a confidential UN internal assessment, first
reported by the Associated Press on June 3. The SSP also reports
that, "there are indications of 'ethnic cleansing' in Abyei" (May 29).
May 26: The U.S. declares that the military seizure of Abyei was
"premeditated," while Khartoum scoffs at U.S. threats to continue
sanctions and refrain from helping the regime obtain desperately
needed external debt relief.
Misseriya militia forces in Abyei town fire 14 rounds at four UN
helicopters. UNMIS spokeswoman Hua Jiang declares that, "Militia that
appear to be Misseriya are moving southwards. Abyei town is deserted
of civilians."
The SSP reveals (May 26) satellite photographic evidence showing, "the
Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) [are] equipped with heavy armor and artillery
at the El Obeid Barracks, approximately 270 miles from Abyei town,
possibly preparing for deployment to southern areas. Based on analysis
of available transportation logistics and the formation of the units,
SSP has concluded that the forces there are capable of imminent
forward movement."
Reports of highly distressed fleeing civilians, primarily women and
children, become increasingly frequent and urgent. Many have left
with almost nothing; all are at acute risk of dehydration,
malnutrition, and water-borne diseases. Many were killed in the
military seizure of Abyei; others have died on the way south.
A great many have fled as far as Turelei, 130 kilometers from Abyei;
by May 26 one humanitarian report has 15,000 displaced people living
in the open near the town (local officials use a much higher figure).
Another 4,000 people are reported in the nearby village of Mayen Abun.
May 27: The UN Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN) offers
a devastating picture of the human and humanitarian consequences of
Khartoum's brutal invasion of Abyei:
"'We have seen thousands of people—mainly women and children—carrying
bags on their heads, or sitting on mats on the side of the road,
exhausted by hours of walking. The populations of both Abyei and Agok
[40km to the south] have been displaced and are spread out in several
different areas: near Turalei, near Mayen-Abun and on the road to
Agok,' said MSF head of mission Raphael Gorgeu."
"'There are severe signs of dehydration among many children who are on
the move. We are very concerned about the harsh conditions the
displaced population has to endure on the roads. Their health
condition can deteriorate rapidly if assistance is not delivered
promptly,' he added."
"The International Organization for Migration, which is among many
agencies responding to the crisis, noted that 'tracking and assessing
the displaced population has been difficult because many people are
still on the move or are hiding in the bush. The continued heavy
rainfall has made some roads impassable and this has impeded access to
areas where IDPs may be sheltering.'"
The Independent (UK) reports on May 28:
"On a visit to Turalei yesterday, the top U.S. official in southern
Sudan, Barrie Walkley, said there was a 'perfect storm' creating a
humanitarian crisis. Sudan's north is blockading border crossings,
preventing food and fuel from getting to the south. Militias are
attacking southern forces, and the northern army displaced tens of
thousands of people by invading Abyei, he said."
The figure for displaced persons rises steadily, and is approximately
80,000 by June 3.
********************
Extending the Timeline for Abyei: May 27 – June 3, 2011
May 27: Concerns about the effects of seasonal rains, which are
already heavy, mount steadily; IRIN reports:
"Seasonal rains are among several factors to have exacerbated the
crisis sparked by the sudden flight of tens of thousands of civilians
from the disputed Sudanese region of Abyei, say aid workers, who point
to both short- and long-term repercussions. 'Most of the roads in
Southern Sudan are not passable during the rains and so that will make
the movement of food difficult,' World Food Programme (WFP)
spokeswoman Amor Almagro told IRIN."
The same dispatch also reported:
"'Longer-term food stability is a major concern,' added Almagro. 'This
is the planting season and if people are not able to plant [because
they are displaced] they will face shortages down the line and will
require assistance for a much longer period of time than this lean
season, when food from the previous harvest has run out.'"
Radio Netherlands reports on two UN casualties from Khartoum’s
invasion of Abyei:
"According to an anonymous diplomatic source in Abyei, the attack on
the town by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF or 'Northern army') was a
complete surprise. Several mortar or tank shells have hit the compound
during the attack, of which four exploded. Two Egyptian soldiers were
injured and one UN vehicle was damaged."
May 28: The Satellite Sentinel Project reports on the "Intentional
Destruction of Abyei Town":
"Satellite Sentinel Project (SSP) has confirmed through the analysis
of DigitalGlobe satellite imagery collected on 27 May the intentional
destruction of approximately one-third of all civilian structures in
Abyei town by the Government of Sudan and northern-aligned militia
forces. SSP has documented multiple violations of international
humanitarian law in Abyei town. These abuses can constitute war
crimes, including violations of the Geneva Conventions, and in some
cases they may represent crimes against humanity." (emphasis added)
SSP is able to confirm Khartoum's destruction of Banton Bridge, a key
link between South Sudan and Abyei across the River Kiir/Bahr el Arab.
A detailed account of the violations of international law represented
by the photographic evidence (ground and satellite) is also provided
by SSP.
May 29: Save the Children/UK estimates that "up to 35,000 children in
Sudan's contested border region of Abyei are among the displaced.
Deng Arop, the chief southern official for the Abyei area, "fears that
unless the fuel crisis is resolved quickly, the rains will turn the
roads to mud, and it will be impossible to deliver relief supplies.
'In a worst-case scenario, the bulk of the displaced will be cut off,
' he said. 'At that point, it will be very difficult to get them
humanitarian assistance.'"
The lack of fuel is a recurring theme in accounts from UN agencies and
nongovernmental humanitarian organizations. Khartoum has since the
beginning of May closed off two of the three routes to the region by
which fuel is transported to the South and Abyei (South Sudan has no
refining capacity of its own, even as the vast majority of crude oil
refined by Khartoum originates in the South).
May 30: High-level talks between senior officials from Khartoum and
Juba fail to make any progress on Abyei as the NIF/NCP regime refuses
to consider military withdrawal from the contested region.
May 31: The danger to those displaced from Abyei into Warrab State is
unrelenting. Those who gathered at Agok have been attacked and fled
further south; some have returned, but their situation is extremely
tenuous. The UN High Commission for Refugees reports:
"'The UN team (that visited last week) saw a stream of civilians
heading south towards and past Agok,' Adrian Edwards, a UNHCR
spokesman in Geneva, said on Tuesday [May 31]. 'A number of villages
just south of Abyei were burning. Many people feared that Agok itself
might soon be attacked,' he added." (Agence France-Presse [dateline:
Geneva], May 31, 2011)
Bloomberg News reports:
"Sudan's army said it may attack any remaining Southern Sudan troops
in the northern border states of Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile,
heightening tension before the south's independence in July. 'In these
two states, any remaining southern forces north of the border after
June 1 will become legitimate targets,' Sudanese army spokesman
Al-Sawarmi Khaled said today [May 31]."
Again, a great many SPLA troops are from these two regions, which they
consider home.
June 1: Khartoum proposes that an unspecified "African force" replace
UNMIS; the regime has already formally declared on May 31 that it will
not allow the UN to renew the mandate for UNMIS in northern Sudan. No
doubt Khartoum, in proposing such a force, has in mind the crippling
weaknesses of the UN/AU "hybrid" force in Darfur (UNAMID).
The African Union, which the previous day (May 31) had celebrated an
"agreement" on a demilitarized North/South border, is proved yet again
to be capable mainly of wishful thinking. The "agreement," according
to an AU statement, "establishes a Common Border Zone between North
and South Sudan, which is to be demilitarised and jointly monitored
and patrolled." But Khartoum quickly made clear that no agreement had
in fact been reached:
"The ruling National Congress Party (NCP) in Sudan denied reports of a
[May 31] agreement with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM)
on establishing a demilitarized zone on the North-South borders…. The
NCP-SPLM accord was brokered by the African Union High-Level
implementation panel (AUHIP) for Sudan headed by former South African
president Thabo Mbeki. 'The agreement paves the way for further
negotiations on key security issues between the parties, to be
convened by the AU Panel within the week,' an African Union statement
said."
"However, the NCP media secretary Ibrahim Ghandour downplayed the AU's
announcement, describing what was signed as a plan given to both sides
as part of many on the table that could form the basis of a framework
agreement. Ghandour stressed that the proposals submitted are still
being discussed with none being endorsed yet." (emphasis added)
Such factitious optimism by Mbeki and company only makes meaningful
negotiations more difficult.
Also on June 1, the Satellite Sentinel Project declares in a press release:
"A bipartisan group of former civilian and military officials has
affirmed the Satellite Sentinel Project's (SSP) analysis of visual
evidence that the Government of Sudan allegedly committed war crimes
during its occupation of the disputed region of Abyei. The officials
include two former US State Department Special Ambassadors-at-Large
for War Crimes, David Scheffer and Pierre Prosper; David Crane, the
former Prosecutor of the Special Court for Sierra Leone; and Michael
Newton, the former Senior Advisor to the US Ambassador-at-Large for
War Crimes."
David Scheffer, the distinguished former Ambassador-at-Large for War
Crimes, declares of the actions revealed in SSP photographic evidence:
"They may also constitute crimes against humanity given the magnitude
and apparent systematic character of destruction and forced
displacement of civilians in Abyei."
Pierre Prosper, also a former Ambassador-at-Large for War Crimes, "The
imagery provided by the Satellite Sentinel Project contains evidence
of actions by Sudan Armed Forces that may well constitute war crimes
and crimes against humanity."
The predations and destructiveness of Khartoum's counterinsurgency war
in Darfur are several times invoked as precedents for the actions of
the Khartoum regime in Abyei.
June 2: A senior Abyei official estimates that approximately 100
civilians were killed following the May 20-21 invasion of the region.
This figure does not include the many scores who had been killed in
the months preceding the military incursion, nor does it include any
mortality among those who have fled into South Sudan.
Reuters reports that Ethiopia will consider sending peacekeeping
troops to Abyei in light of the request from Juba and the UN:
"Both Juba [the Government of South Sudan] and the United Nations have
asked Ethiopia to send peacekeeping troops to Abyei, but no decisions
will be taken unless Khartoum also asks for the forces to be sent, an
Ethiopian official told Reuters."
It is highly unlikely that Khartoum will permit a robust military
presence in Abyei so long as it intends to use its own military
control of the region as leverage in negotiations with Juba on a range
of issues (in addition to the status of Abyei itself, these include
border delineation and demarcation, oil revenues, citizenship for
Southerners in the North, and division of massive external debt).
June 3: "Ethnic cleansing"—what Samantha Power in writing about Bosnia
calls "a kind of euphemistic halfway house between crimes against
humanity and genocide" ("A Problem from Hell": America and the Age of
Genocide, page 483 [New York, 2002]). Whatever it means—and it is not
a term of art in international law—Khartoum's actions in Abyei compel
us again to make sense of this slippery phrase. Associated Press
reports:
"A confidential United Nations report warns that the invasion by
Sudan's military of the contested north-south region of Abyei could
lead to 'ethnic cleansing' if the tens of thousands of residents who
fled are not able to return. The UN human rights report--dated May 29
and marked 'Not For Public Citation or Distribution'--said the north's
Khartoum government may have carried out a premeditated military plan
to invade Abyei when Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, troops moved in
May 21."
The justification for these fears is in large part a function of the
immense humanitarian crisis precipitated by the actions in question.
The situation is clearly growing more desperate by the day. As of
June 1 the UN "estimates [ ] about 76,000 [have been displaced from
Abyei and its surrounding villages]. The International Organization
for Migration [IOM] has registered about 40,000 of those." The IOM
also declares these people "are in urgent need of food, shelter and
sanitation facilities."
The most comprehensive overview of the humanitarian crisis again comes
from the UN Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN):
"Warrap State in Southern Sudan is becoming the focus of efforts to
assist thousands of people fleeing the disputed central-southern
region of Abyei after it was attacked on 21 May by the northern
Sudanese army, aid workers say. But the obstacles are considerable: it
is the rainy season, many roads are impassable, soldiers have harassed
aid workers, fuel is in short supply and it is sometimes difficult to
identify who is displaced."
"'This operation is facing logistical challenges. In the weeks to
come, with the advance of the rainy season, the challenges will become
greater,' said Margherita Coco, who was responsible for the World Food
Programme (WFP) sub-office in Abyei until the attack forced WFP to
abandon its work there. She now works from Wunrok in Warrap State. On
1 June WFP put the number of registered internally displaced persons
(IDPs) at more than 45,000; unofficial estimates indicate there are
another 36,000 people on the road still trying to head for safety."
(June 3, 2011)
This suggests a total displaced population of over 80,000 human
beings, primarily women and children. The IRIN account also gives us
some of the first interviews with the survivors of the Abyei invasion,
and the threats faced even when fleeing to Agok to the south:
"The initial destination for those fleeing Abyei, mostly in great
haste and with few provisions or spare clothing, was Agok-Anet, where
they believed they would be safe until Sudanese army bombing forced
them out. 'I was having a rest when I heard the planes,' said Nyandur
Deng, a resident of Agok-Anet. 'Then I saw people running away so I
took my six children and I left. My husband works in Khartoum.' Most
of those fleeing Agok-Anet were women and children, the men staying
behind to guard their homes or join Southern army."
"IDPs in Warrap State are sleeping outside, without shelter, despite
it being the rainy season. 'We need plastic sheeting before food,'
said Nunja, 15, translating for her mother. 'We've been sleeping under
a tree since we arrived. We walked for three days. We need rest.'"
The lack of fuel for transportation is rapidly becoming a critical
shortcoming in the humanitarian response:
"Another obstacle is the acute shortage of fuel. According to the UN
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), two of the
main roads between north and south have been blocked [by Khartoum].
Petrol is imported from the north. 'We had 200 [liters] of extra fuel
when we arrived on site,' explained Oyukutu Valente, an official with
Save the Children. 'We have just ordered an additional 400 [liters]
from the International Organization for Migration [IOM], due to arrive
by convoy from Juba.'"
"Agok Hospital, managed by the Swiss branch of Médecins Sans
Frontières (MSF), is treating some of the displaced who were unable to
keep up. 'Most are children and the elderly, often abandoned by their
families during their flight,' said Ines Hake, head of an MSF medical
team. Patients mainly had dehydration symptoms, diarrhoea or lung
infections after spending nights in the rain. Hake expects up to 200
patients a day at the hospital. 'People first try to [find] shelter
and then food,' explained Raphael Gorge with MSF in Agok. 'It is only
after that that they come in for treatment.'"
The Present
The UN Security Council, two weeks after Khartoum's military invasion
began, today brought itself—after much internal squabbling—to
"strongly condemn" that action, and make an explicit "demand":
"'The council demands that the government of Sudan withdraw
immediately from the Abyei area. The council further demands the
immediate withdrawal of all military elements from Abyei,' said the
statement. 'The council calls on the Sudanese Armed Forces to ensure
an immediate halt to all looting, burning and illegal resettlement.'"
(Agence France-Presse [dateline: UN/New York], June 3, 2011; emphasis
added)
Here it may be useful to recall another "demand" the UN Security
Council has made of Khartoum, this one concerning Darfur (one of
many):
"[The UN Security Council] demands that the government of Sudan
fulfill its commitments to disarm the Janjaweed militias [per the
terms of the July 3, 2004 Joint Communiqué signed by the regime and
Secretary-General Kofi Annan] and bring to justice Janjaweed leaders
and their associates." (UN Security Council resolution 1556, July 30,
2004 [paragraph 6]; emphasis in original)
This "demand" has gone unheeded for seven years, and even now the
Janjaweed—often re-cycled into other military or paramilitary
guises—continue to attack and destroy civilian villages, destroy
foodstocks, kill non-combatant civilians, and rape women and girls.
Khartoum's military takeover of Abyei will continue to put tens of
thousands of civilians at acute risk. They cannot wait seven years
for relief. And they are not "collateral damage, " to use the
military euphemism that is so wholly inappropriate here. The
displacement of these people from their homes and lands has been
deliberate; their possible resettlement is being deliberately
forestalled by various regime actions, including the settling of
Misseriya Arabs throughout Abyei, making the status of the region a
demographic fait accompli.
People are dying and may soon die in large numbers. Whatever "ethnic
cleansing" means, presumably this is a conspicuous example.
June 3, 2011
_____________________________
Eric Reeves
Smith College
Northampton, MA 01063
[email protected]
413-585-3326
www.sudanreeves.org
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