---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Fri, Jun 24, 2011 at 11:15 AM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Fwd: Bashir says war with south cannot be ruled out To: Group <[email protected]>
1. Sudanese president says possibility of war with south Sudan cannot ruled out Xinhua 13:40, June 24, 2011 Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir said Wednesday that possibility of a war between north and south Sudan cannot be ruled out due to what he termed as "time bombs" fueling the conflict between the two sides. "Unfortunately, possibility of war is likely. We, on our part, are committed to and keen on peace. However, if the links of our brothers in Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) push them to create problems, they will lose. They have experienced that in Abyei and in South Kordofan," al-Bashir said in an exclusive interview with Xinhua on Wednesday. The Sudanese president reiterated that the south would lose if war breaks out, saying "if matters escalated to a war, the south will lose. When we closed the borders for only seven days, the south suffered a lot, so imagine if the war broke out and the borders were completely closed." "The SPLM has not fulfilled its commitments in the implementation of the security arrangements protocol, which is like a time bomb that led to the fighting in South Kordofan and may lead to the same problem in Blue Nile," al-Bashir said. Al-Bashir further urged the SPLM leaders to favor the voice of reason and preserve peace, saying "I hope they would resort to reason and realize their interests, because their interests are in peace." The Sudanese president, meanwhile, reiterated that the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) has fulfilled all its commitments regarding the security arrangements, saying "the report of the Assessment and Evaluation Commission has affirmed our fulfillment of all our commitments regarding the item of the security arrangements with 100 percent, while the SPLM implemented on 37 percent." Al-Bashir, in the meantime, accused the SPLM of crippling the border demarcation process between north and south Sudan, noting " the movement, with its behavior, has crippled the border demarcation process and until now the borders have not been demarked." The Sudanese president reiterated the importance of reaching a final solution for the disputed oil-rich area of Abyei, saying " the attempts to deny the Mesiria tribe their inherent right in participation in the Abyei referendum were the reasons which impeded the efforts of reaching an agreement on Abyei." "The movement's recent violations and their deployment of great numbers of troops in the Abyei area have led to escalating the problem because the behavior of the movement was a violation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the Abyei protocol signed between the two sides. This is what has led to the recent conflict." Al-Bashir, meanwhile, refuted the accusations of the north of doing injustice to the south, saying "the rebellion in south Sudan broke out before the declaration of independence. The war started on August 1955, while Sudan's independence was on Jan. 1, 1956, the south had rebelled before the north ruled the country." The Sudanese president defended the CPA, which led to cessation of the south and division of the country into two states, saying that "the war created a status of hatred and feeling of injustice. We believed that this status would be infinite and therefore we decided to put an end to it and agreed to give the southern Sudanese citizen the right to determine his fate." He further held the SPLM responsible for the separation of south Sudan because it violated its commitment to work with the NCP to make unity an attractive option, saying "unfortunately, the entire SPLM leadership, and under the influence of hostile circles, retreated from its agreement with us and started to work for the separation where a great majority of the southerners voted for separation as a result." He went on saying that "we respect their commitments and we have accepted the result of the vote and separation of the south. We have even gone beyond that and vowed to support the newly born state because instability in the south will affect the north. We also have a sentimental pond with the people of south Sudan and we are keen to their stability and prosperity." The Sudanese president reiterated his country's willingness to cooperate with south Sudan government regarding the oil file, but set three options in this respect including "continuation in sharing the oil revenues, paying of sovereign fees on exportation of south Sudan oil through the north or closing the pipeline." The relations between north and south Sudan have recently been witnessing mounting tensions in the wake of their dispute over the Abyei area which the Sudanese army controlled it on May 21, and the recent clashes in South Kordofan State. Sudan's peace partners, the NCP in the north and the SPLM in the south, have recently signed an agreement stipulating withdrawal of all military forces from the country's disputed oil- rich area of Abyei. On May 21, the SAF took control of the country's disputed oil- rich area of Abyei in response to an attack by the SPLA against a SAF convoy, which resulted in killing of 22 SAF soldiers. A referendum on Abyei was supposed to be held on Jan. 9, 2011, coincident with the south Sudan referendum, but it was postponed in the wake of a difference between the NCP and the SPLM over who has the right to vote in the referendum. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90777/90855/7419774.html END1 2. Sudan threatens to shut off pipeline By Katrina Manson in Nairobi and Anna Fifield in Washington Financial Times Published: June 22 2011 20:13 | Last updated: June 22 2011 20:13 Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s president, has threatened to shut off a pipeline that exports oil from the south of the country, as prospects for peaceful partition on July 9 are eroded. In a speech delivered at Port Sudan, the main oil export terminal, Mr Bashir said that unless the south, which currently splits oil revenues 50-50 with the north despite producing 80 per cent of output, continues to share revenues or pays a transit fee on every barrel exported, he will bring southern trade to a standstill. ”If they don’t accept either of these, we’re going to block the pipeline,” he said. Analysts have long hoped oil might be the glue that could keep both sides amicable in advance of the south’s independence but the latest threats come against a backdrop of more than two weeks of fighting and aerial bombardment along the tense borders between the north and south of the country. US president Barack Obama on Wednesday described the situation in Southern Kordorfan, a state north of the future border from which tens of thousands have fled, as “dire.” He said any failure to end violence there, and resist the deployment of peacekeepers to the contested border territory of Abyei would “deepen Sudan’s isolation in the international community”. US officials told the Financial Times that China is also “deeply concerned” and could support a possible move by Washington to press for UN sanctions against both sides. China is Khartoum’s main trading partner and extracts much of the country’s oil. So it would be a surprise move for Beijing to support such a proposal. Mr Bashir, who is indicted on war crimes for his alleged role in the separate conflict in Darfur, is due to visit China next week in a visit Chinese officials said would reaffirm Beijing’s “traditional friendship”. The Khartoum government in the north and semi-autonomous government in the south have been involved in years of inconclusive negotiations on how to divide up everything from border territory to oil spoils. But this is the first time Khartoum has raised the prospect of isolating the landlocked south, which relies on oil for 99 percent of its revenues but is dependent on a pipeline in the north for export. Negotiations over oil are continuing in Ethiopia under the auspices of the African Union and some analysts suggested Mr Bashir’s words are probably an “idle threat”, especially since the south has already agreed in principle to a transit fee. Khartoum has said it will lose more than a third of overall revenues following the split, and wants a phased reduction in oil revenue sharing over six years to ease its way.The south relies on oil for revenues estimated at $8.5-11 bn since a 2005 peace deal brought an end to decades of intermittent civil war. -- Katrina Manson East Africa correspondent Financial Times Sudan mob: +249 (0)901 152 645 Kenya mob: +254 (0)734 861 767 Kenya office: +254 20 221 4255 UK mob: +44 (0)7814 106 535 [email protected] www.ft.com END2 ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +249 919 695 362 (Sudan mobile) +27 82 853 3556 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. 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