---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Thu, Jun 30, 2011 at 10:28 AM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Fw: Two presidents To: Group <[email protected]>
1. S.Sudan president steers nation to independence Thu Jun 30, 2011 6:26am GMT * Kiir and southerners long eyed divorce from north * South Sudan president insists no return to war * Sought to end south-south violence with amnesties By Andrew Heavens KHARTOUM, June 30 (Reuters) - Salva Kiir's reputation as the quiet man of Sudanese politics, with an eccentric taste in cowboy hats, masks a wily operator who is about to steer his impoverished region into full statehood on July 9. The president of South Sudan, backed by a small group of capable deputies, has spent the past five years locking horns with the region's old enemies in Khartoum, laying the groundwork for most southerners' long dream of independence. When north and south Sudan ended decades of civil war with the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, both sides officially agreed to campaign to persuade southerners to stay united with the north. But it was an open secret that Kiir, and the vast majority of southerners, had their heart set on a divorce. By most standards, the build-up to that split on July 9 has been bloody and disastrous. Thousands of people have died inside south Sudan over the past two years - in "tribal" clashes. The south says northern-backed militias provoked the violence. Khartoum denies the accusation. Sudan's northern and southern-backed armies are also still facing off in flashpoints along their ill-defined shared border - including in the oil-producing northern region of Southern Kordofan and the contested Abyei area. But compared to the bloodshed Sudan has seen over past decades, the fact that south Sudan has got this close to independence is in part due to Kiir's unassuming, consensus-building skills, analysts say. DEALING WITH RENEGADES When Kiir first stepped up as the leader of the semi- autonomous south in 2005, many compared him unfavourably with his firebrand predecessor, the civil war hero John Garang. But Kiir, the former head of the military wing of the south's dominant Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), has concentrated on keeping his fragmented region united. He has repeatedly offered amnesties and pardons to a rash of renegade militia leaders who have sprung up over the past year. During north-south confrontations over Abyei and other hotspots, Kiir was quick to say he had no intention of going back to war, welcome news to the United States and others in the West that shepherded the peace deal through. Kiir, a regular worshipper at Juba's Catholic cathedral, has been good at bringing old foes into the SPLM and the southern army. But worries remain about the ability of his party to accept rivals who insist on staying outside the fold. International observers accused the SPLM and southern army officers of intimidation of opposition groups during last year's national elections. Southern journalists have also complained about harassment, particularly when articles tackle corruption or some of the south's more eccentric development projects. So far Kiir, in his late 50s, has kept himself insulated from accusations made against more confrontational supporters. His quiet approach and lack of polarising rhetoric could now be his main strengths in governing a landlocked territory handicapped by tribal divisions, severe poverty, unstable neighbours and huge supplies of privately held weapons. (Editing by Edmund Blair and Alison Williams) http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFLDE75R1PC20110630?sp=true END1 2. Sudan president faces pressures after south split Thu Jun 30, 2011 6:25am GMT * Economic hurdles ahead after south takes most oil * Carefully balanced military, Islamist demands * Appeals to northerners with jovial style By Andrew Heavens KHARTOUM, June 30 (Reuters) - Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir's visit to China, defying an international warrant for his arrest, was typical of a man who has stamped his authority on his country since his 1989 coup. The circumstances around the trip - in the countdown to the secession of Sudan's south on July 9 - also showed some of the vulnerabilities that may plague his rule in months to come. Bashir's main aim appeared to be to reassure Sudan's biggest trade partner that its investments will be secure, particularly in oil fields along the north-south border, after Khartoum loses the south and third of Sudan's landmass. He may have also been seeking reassurance himself that Beijing's economic support would not shift too far from Khartoum towards the southern capital Juba, which will control about 75 percent of Sudan's oil when it becomes an independent state. Sudan faces rising inflation levels and foreign currency shortages. A mounting and crippling external debt, which has reached almost $40 billion. It will no longer have the kind of oil revenues to service its debts. On top of economic concerns, Bashir faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges he masterminded war crimes in Darfur. The president arrived in China on Tuesday a day late after his plane had to turn back to Tehran. The Sudanese Foreign Ministry said the delay was because of a change to his flight plan over Turkmenistan. The last minute hitch recalled other hiccups in his travel plans, which analysts say were caused by fears that ICC could succeed in persuading governments to intercept his flight. Bashir has had to cancel visits to Turkey, Libya and the Central African Republic, after the countries came under pressure from the ICC. STICK-WAVING DANCES Such challenges could encourage rivals within his own ruling National Congress Party and his many opponents in Sudan's peripheries, not least in the south and Darfur to the west. But Bashir has proved a canny survivor and has become Sudan's longest-ruling leader. The son of a farmer from the Nile Valley north of Khartoum, he was a career army officer who rose to the rank of general. Bashir served at least one tour of combat duty in the south against the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) before overthrowing the democratically elected civilian government of former Prime Minister Sadeq al-Mahdi in June 1989. Inside Sudan, Bashir has cultivated an almost jovial image. His bombastic rhetoric, regular use of colloquial Arabic and stick-waving dance routines at public events have only added to his support in his northern heartlands. His longevity is also partly down to his ability to appeal in equal measure to the generals and the Islamist hardliners who both played their part in bringing him to power. The United States, Britain and Norway have offered incentives to the north to pursue a pluralistic, democratic government after secession. Sudan has been offered increased trade, removal from a U.S. list of a state sponsors of terrorism and minimal easing of some U.S. sanctions. But for Bashir those carrots may not outweigh the internal pressures within Khartoum's ruling party not to allow space for dissent, which they believe could encourage more secessionist tendencies and weaken their domestic power base. Some analysts say a Bashir-led north could become a more assertive Islamist state and isolated place - and potentially a disruptive player in the region - after the south leaves. (Editing by Edmund Blair and Alison Williams) http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL6E7HU02120110630?sp=true END2 ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +249 919 695 362 (Sudan mobile) +27 82 853 3556 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "sudan-john-ashworth" group. 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