---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Small Arms Survey <[email protected]> Date: Thu, Jul 7, 2011 at 12:11 PM Subject: Abyei Conflict Dynamics: New Report from the Small Arms Survey To: Jean-Francois Darcq <[email protected]>
The Small Arms Survey’s Sudan Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) project is pleased to announce the release of a new Working Paper: ‘Creating Facts on the Ground: Conflict Dynamics in Abyei’, by Joshua Craze, now available for downloading at www.smallarmssurveysudan.org. Between January and March 2011 the National Congress Party (NCP) supported and armed militia forces that attacked police positions throughout the middle of Abyei, leaving more than 150 dead. In May, strident political rhetoric increased on both sides and units put in place to protect the territory clashed. Following an incident on 19 May, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) launched a full-scale invasion of Abyei accompanied by a concerted aerial bombing campaign. By 22 May all the civilians in the territory had fled to South Sudan and Abyei town was in SAF hands. This working paper analyses the dynamics of the conflict in Abyei and its implications for the Abyei referendum, the demarcation of the territory’s borders, and the North–South peace process more generally. It focuses on the recent escalation of the conflict, setting it in the context of historical patterns of violence in the territory. It pays particular attention to events through 23 May 2011, focusing in detail on the February–March conflict that set the stage for the subsequent SAF assault and invasion. The working paper’s key findings include the following: * The SAF invasion of Abyei is unlikely to lead to all-out war between the North and South. Unless SAF crosses the river Kiir, the SPLM will not jeopardize the formal declaration of South Sudan’s independence on 9 July 2011 by responding militarily to the invasion. The NCP has little interest in starting another war and every interest in using Abyei as a bargaining tool in delicate post-referendum and post-independence negotiations with the SPLM. * Attempts by the international community to intervene in the Abyei crisis in the first six months of 2011 have not improved the situation but have actually worsened it. * The security arrangements put in place after the clashes in January 2011, which were designed to improve the security situation in Abyei, did the opposite and partially enabled the SAF military attack on Abyei. * There is conclusive evidence that SAF soldiers took part in the attacks of February and March 2011, and that the Sudanese government was both arming Missiriya militias and directing at least some of those attacks. * Unlike some other post-CPA arrangements, the Abyei crisis cannot be resolved solely by closed-door agreements between NCP and SPLM elites. Any negotiations must include the active involvement of the Missiriya and Ngok Dinka, and the consent of their leaders. But no possible scenarios would appear to satisfy both local and national stakeholders. * An evaluation of the UN role in Abyei during the first five months of 2011 suggests that any peacekeeping force will struggle to prevent further outbreaks of violence in the territory. ‘Creating Facts on the Ground’ is the 26th Working Paper from the HSBA. All HSBA publications can be downloaded from www.smallarmssurveysudan.org (please refresh your Internet browser to ensure that the latest updates load). For interviews related to this publication, please contact HSBA Acting Project Manager, Emile LeBrun, at [email protected] --- If you want to unsubscribe from this mailinglist, please go to this link : http://mailing.smallarmssurvey.org/unsubscribe.php -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "JFD info" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/jfdinfo?hl=en.
