1 July 2011 Last updated at 07:20 GMT
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South Sudan's enemy within
By James Copnall BBC News, Khartoum
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Video provided by the South Sudan Liberation Army
Continue reading the main story
Sudan: Coping with divorce
* South Sudan celebrates
* How do you set up a country?
* How long will the smiles last?
* Hollywood's role in independence
Even before South Sudan declares its independence next week, it is
already fighting at least half a dozen rebel movements.
On a video recording obtained by the BBC, hundreds of southern
fighters jog rhythmically in a wide circle, singing and flaunting
their new weapons.
The apparently joyous scenes in the video clash violently with a
bloody reality: The rebel groups have fought on numerous occasions
with the southern army, and represent a great threat to the stability
of the new state.
The motivations of the rebels vary, but most of their leaders are
former senior officers in the southern army, the Sudan People's
Liberation Army (SPLA), or militia leaders who fought with Sudan's
government during the 21-year year civil war, which ended in a peace
deal paving the way for the south's independence.
One of the rebel groups, Peter Gadet's South Sudan Liberation Army
(SSLA), says it is fighting corruption, lack of development, and the
domination of the Dinka ethnic group.
The Dinkas form South Sudan's biggest ethnic group, and are accused of
holding most of the key position in the southern army and government.
Continue reading the main story
South Sudan 2011 budget
* SPLA and veterans affairs: 1.6bn Sudanese pounds ($600m)
* Health: 216m pounds
* Education: 320m pounds
* Higher education, research, science & technology: 108m pounds
* Gender, child & social welfare 14m pounds
Spending on the SPLA accounts for more than a quarter of South Sudan's
budget, and is about three times as much as the money spent on health
and education combined.
In part, this is a recognition of the threat posed by the rebel groups
and the old enemies in Khartoum.
But most of the money goes on salaries, and the senior UN official in
South Sudan, David Gressley, recently said the army should be halved
after independence.
Northern hand?
The SSLA has fought a series of battles with the SPLA, near its bases
in Unity state.
According to the SPLA, all the groups have one thing in common: They
are funded and supplied by the former enemy in Khartoum.
The video of the rebels was given to the BBC by a rebel leader who
was, at least temporarily, in Khartoum.
Continue reading the main story
South Sudan rebel groups
Peter Gadet
* South Sudan Liberation Army (SSLA) led by Peter Gadet (above),
who deserted from the southern army, having once fought for Khartoum
* Another rebel group is led by George Athor, formerly a general
in the SPLA, who took up arms after losing the 2010 governorship
elections in Jonglei state as an independent
* Johnson Oliny's ethnic Shilluk militia attacked the major town of Malakal
Rightly or wrongly, Juba sees the hand of Khartoum in every fresh
mutiny, with serious consequences for relations between the two.
During the two-decade-long civil war, the north made a habit of
funding rival groups to weaken the SPLA.
Even South Sudan's Vice-President Riek Machar once split off from the SPLA.
President Omar al-Bashir's National Congress Party (NCP) denies it is
supporting a new generation of rebel groups.
"Peter Gadet and the others were not part of the NCP or the Sudan
Armed Forces, they were ex-SPLA militia, who abandoned them following
the rigging of the elections in the south," says senior NCP official
Ibrahim Ghandour.
"This is a south-south business, and the north and the NCP are not
implicated in this."
In the video obtained by the BBC, the SSLA troops seem to be wearing
brand new boots and uniforms, and are equipped with weapons which show
no signs of wear.
They proudly display mortars, machine-guns and rocket-propelled grenades.
None of the rebel groups have been able to satisfactorily explain how
they got this new weaponry.
There are hints they will put their shiny new guns to work at or just
after the celebrations of South Sudan's independence.
Threat?
But how big a threat do they actually pose?
The various groups - by some counts close to a dozen - talk about
co-ordinating their actions, but would probably find it difficult due
to South Sudan's limited infrastructures and large size, not to
mention the tricky question of who should lead.
All the same, the UN estimates 1,400 civilians have died so far this
year in South Sudan, due to government or rebel activity, or
inter-ethnic conflict.
Some of those deaths are blamed on the SPLA, a rebel movement itself
once, and one that has struggled to make the transition to a national
army.
map
The SSLA, at least, announced its intention, in the Mayom declaration,
to overthrow the government.
Some observers have their doubts.
"The rebel groups are not a threat to the government in Juba, but are
a local source of instability," says EJ Hogendoorn of the think-tank
International Crisis Group (ICG).
"This can trigger humanitarian crises in those areas and undermine development."
This matters in South Sudan, which by some reckonings will become the
least developed country on earth when it declares its independence.
"One of the most devastating impacts of the resurgence of violence in
Unity [state] is the re-mining of roads cleared of war-time mines by
UN and international demining groups since 2005," the Small Arms
Survey pointed out in a recent report.
If they are unlikely to overthrow the state, the rebels may well have
other objectives.
Latent grievances
SSLA spokesman Bol Gatkouth Kol hints his troops could seize control
of the oil fields in Unity state.
That would have vast repercussions, since oil represents about 98% of
South Sudan's revenue.
SSLA rebels Where did the SSLA get all its new weapons from?
Another possibility is senior commanders could convert military
success into a lucrative return into the SPLA.
"The SPLA is extraordinary," comments one long-time observer of Sudan.
"Officers seem to see going into rebellion as a way of jumping up a
few rungs on the career ladder."
Still, all the rebels say they have legitimate concerns.
The perceived predominance of Dinkas in the top echelons of the army
and its related party, the SPLM, and the SPLM's reluctance to open the
political process up to other parties, are certainly part of them.
"There are many complex grievances in South Sudan," says Mr Hogendoorn.
"Many of them were suppressed in the interest of South Sudan's
independence, but they are beginning to surface as 9 July approaches.
"Unless the SPLM becomes more open and governs more inclusively, these
grievances will fester and lead to more rebellion."
Sudan: A country divided
* Geography
* Ethnic groups
* Infant mortality
* Water & sanitation
* Education
* Food insecurity
* Oil fields
Show regions
Satellite image showing geography of Sudan, source: Nasa
The great divide across Sudan is visible even from space, as this Nasa
satellite image shows. The northern states are a blanket of desert,
broken only by the fertile Nile corridor. South Sudan is covered by
green swathes of grassland, swamps and tropical forest.
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