---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2011 17:29:40 +0300 Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Fw: ‘protracted’ war in South Kordofan, Blue Nile To: Group <[email protected]>
1. Sudan analyst warns of ‘protracted’ war in South Kordofan, Blue Nile September 12, 2011 (NAIROBI) – The war in Sudan’s southern frontiers of Blue Nile and South Kordofan could be protracted and eventually engulf the newly established state of South Sudan if Khartoum continues to resist political options, according to a Sudan expert. Sudan’s army clashed with fighters of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement North (SPLM-N) in South Kordofan and Blue Nile in June and August respectively, giving rise to increased tension between Khartoum and Juba which the former accuses of aiding the rebels. Fouad Hikmat, a senior Sudan analyst with the International Crisis Group (ICG), a Brussels-based research group, believes that the fact that Blue Nile joined South Kordofan in the war against Khartoum is all but surprising. According to Hikmat, who was speaking in an interview with Sudan Tribune, what happened in South Kordofan meant that Malik Aggar, SPLM-N’s chairman and Blue Nile’s governor, had to eventually choose between remaining in the government and siding with his colleagues in South Kordofan. Aggar, who was elected to his position in Sudan’s general elections of 2010, was sacked by the country’s president Omer Al-Bashir who declared a state of emergency in the Blue Nile and appointed a military ruler in it. Hikmat explained that the government’s militarized responses in the two states are an attempt to scuttle the SPLM-N’s strong military force and its potential to be the vanguard of opposition to the government. He pointed out that the Sudanese government drives the legitimacy of its actions from the principle of the state’s responsibility to fully control its territories and the fact that the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed between north and south Sudan stipulates that all SPLM forces should redeploy south of the 1956 borders. In view of Khartoum’s ruling National Congress Party’s (NCP) failure to present an idea of how to establish political stability in the country as well as the “unfinished business” in the restive western region of Darfur and eastern Sudan, Fouad said, there is a possibility that the war would escalate with no end in sight. He further warned that a “protracted” war risks drawing in the south and the entire region if no urgent action is taken. The ICG analyst went on to suggest a way out, calling for an international conference on Sudan in order to persuade the Khartoum government to develop a program for stabilizing the country. “If the NCP rejects this for the sake of its survival and narrow interests, the party will be saddled with the responsibility of breaking Sudan into pieces” Hikmat added. (ST) END1 2. From a source close to Damazin, 13th September 2011 "It appears that inside Damazin town the situation is a bit calm in a way. People mostly from South Sudan have returned mainly to collect their belongings to head back to Kosti for the trains for those wishing to go to Wau or to Kosti-Renk for those who would prefer to use river transport for Malakal, Bor or Juba.... Former government men in uniform and officials (from the South) have not received their post-service compensations. SPLM sympathizers who were not apprehended by NISS have moved either to Khartoum or Renk from Damazin, Singa, Sennar and Kosti. Some may find it difficult to go back to claim their dues or property if the GoS remains adamant [against] a negotiated settlement of the conflict." END2 3. US is not supportive of a no-fly-zone in Sudan: envoy September 12, 2011 (KHARTOUM) — United States special envoy to Sudan, Princeton Lyman said his country has no intention to push for the imposition of a no-fly-zone in the Blue Nile or other regions where the government forces fight against rebel groups. Rebel groups in Blue Nile, Darfur and Southern Kordofan called for a no fly zone in the three region accusing the Sudanese air force of bombing civilians in the three regions. "I can not say that the United States or anyone else is prepared to enforce a no-fly zone in Sudan. That would take us into a confrontational situation in Sudan," said Lyman in an interview with Radio Dabanga on Monday. He further pointed out that the US efforts are focusing on the resumption of negotiations between the Sudanese parties . "Whereas our efforts are concentrated in getting the parties back to the negotiating table and an end to the fighting and that’s where we are putting all our efforts now". However, Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) said today it refuses any international mediation to negotiate with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) to end the armed conflict in Blue Nile. NCP secretary of political contacts al-Haj Adam Youssef told the government sponsored media SMC that the western powers seek through these initiatives to allow the SPLM-N to reorganise its troops and be prepared for new attacks to overthrow the regime. Lyman said they are working with the UN and the African Union to hold talks between the government and the SPLM-N over a number of issues that need to be addressed by the two parties. He said they are "trying to get those negotiations restarted at the earliest possible time". President Omer al-Bashir early in July rejected a framework agreement to end the fight in Southern Kordofan between the two parties on 28 June. He said the SPLM should negotiate directly with the government without any international meditation. Speaking about Darfur, the special envoy criticized calls by rebel groups to overthrow the government as solution for the conflict. "We do not believe that a commitment to overthrowing the regime is a sensible stand for the parties or the armed movements to take," he pinpointed. He also said he advised the rebel groups to "articulate a political platform and to engage in negotiations with the government on Darfur." The envoy also reiterated that the Washington Forum, scheduled for 27-28 September, aims to give an opportunity to the different parties to express themselves “And that we will be able to discuss among ourselves and have a better understanding of what the points of view are and what are the obstacles to further negotiations". Khartoum blames Washington for not removing the Sudan from the list of states sponsoring terror and maintaining the economic sanctions despite the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the independence of South Sudan. The Sudanese officials also say that the US administration remains inert despite the obvious military and material support provided by Juba government to the SPLM-N and Darfur rebels. (ST) END3 4. Sudan’s top MP threatens opposition, press over alleged complicity with SPLM-N September 12, 2011 (KHARTOUM) – The speaker of Sudan’s national assembly, Ahmad Ibrahim Al-Tahir, has accused unnamed opposition parties and newspapers of complicity with the armed opposition Sudan People’s Liberation Movement North (SPLM-N). Al-Tahir, who is a senior member of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP), on Tuesday lashed out at opposition parties, accusing them of displaying “negative” attitude towards the events in the country’s Blue Nile and South Kordofan states. The two states bordering the Republic of South Sudan have been the scene of violent clashes between Sudan’s army (SAF) and SPLM-N fighters who were previously aligned with the south during its war against the north. Sudan banned the SPLM-N and shuttered its offices as the fighting intensified in Blue Nile, alleging the group still maintains links with the ruling party in South Sudan. According to Al-Tahir, his party had documents proving that the relations between some opposition parties and the SPLM-N, adding that some opposition groups sat with the SPLM-N and agreed to coordinate efforts to topple the government militarily. The ruling party official moved from the opposition to attack the print-media, saying that some newspapers are being funded from abroad to voice support for the SPLM-N. He added that his party possesses a lot of information which they discuss in “closed sessions.” Al-Tahir warned that the hand of law would reach whoever waging a war against Sudan whether through military support or intelligence with the outside. He further said he expected the parliament in the upcoming days to issue a resolution appointing a new for the Blue Nile State after president Al-Bashir sacked the SPLM-N’s elected governor Malik Aggar and appointed an interim military ruler in his place. The head of the parliament urged the Sudanese people to aid the government in hunting down SPLM-N’s leaders Yasir Arman, Malik Aggar and Abdul Aziz Al-Hilu in order to bring them to trial. Meanwhile, the SPLM-N has announced it held a meeting on Monday with the U.S. special envoy to Sudan Princeton Lyman and agreed on the urgent need to address the humanitarian crisis in South Kordofan and Blue Nile. According to a press release undersigned by the SPLM-N’s secretary-general Yasir Arman, the two sides agreed to continue talks on delivery of aid to the needy in South Kordofan and Blue Nile. The SPLM-N reiterated calls for establishing an independent committee to investigate allegations of human rights abuses in South Kordofan and Blue Nile. Further the SPLM-N told the US diplomat they refuse to disarm their fighters unless within a framework of new security arrangements in the two states, assigning blame to the NCP for the eruption of war because of its attempt to forcibly disarm SPLM-N forces. (ST) END4 ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +249 919 695 362 (Sudan mobile) +27 82 853 3556 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "sudan-john-ashworth" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.co.za/group/sudan-john-ashworth -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "JFD info" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/jfdinfo?hl=en.
