> Hey, if you have a moment catch me up with what's happening in the > Phillipines. I read in this morning's paper about the current > President not running for re-election because of political strife and > am curious to hear what's going on from someone I can trust.
Bob: Thanks for the trust. Now, can you trust me if I tell you that the Philippines is spelled with two "P" and only one "L"? Most people (non-Filipinos) usually make that mistake. In the university I am applying for my PhD in the US, they too, even misspelled Philippines, so you are forgiven, Mr. Muller. ;) Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is not yet into her third and final year as President and already she is campaigning for the 2004 presidential election! But then so are the other candidates! And so to answer your question if she is running for president in 2004: YES! Her popularity has gone down considerably in the latest survey polls and you can almost feel the high anomie level in the metropolis. She is most unpopular in the sector she thrived in: the academe and the business sector. She used to teach economics in the University when I was an undergrad and I took a course under her in Macroeconomics one summer. She is very competent as a teacher and you get the feeling that she knows the internal workings of topics like consumption function and the marginal propensities to consume more than anyone. So, when she became Vice President to deposed president Joseph "Erap" Estrada, it was seen as the marriage of populist politics (Erap) and academic integrity (Gloria). Both failed miserably. Erap was ousted from his office by the members of the upper middle class who are a bit nervous of Erap's pro-poor policies. They did this by focusing on his alleged shady dealings with the Chinese tycoons, his extra marital affairs, his inept ways of governance, his unprofessionalism, his lack of "proper" education, etc. The masses were always on Erap's side but the middle class and the rich who are ultimately more powerful and has control over mass media ousted him January 2001. In came Vice-President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as President. Here is a woman who has a track record in managing a country in economic tatters. And a woman who is a daughter of former President Diosdado Macapagal. And she too, failed. She reneged on her promise to the Filipinos to rid the government of its inherent and institutionalized graft and corruption. The economy was not better even if the president is an economist (not that economists can be relied upon necessarily to do troubleshooting jobs in making ailing economies recover but there were a lot of misguided hopes that she, being a woman with education, is better at managing a country with more than 100 dialects and 7,000 islands than the former actor Joseph Estrada who only finished grade school but who belongs to a rich clan). Equally sad is her staunch belief that the Philippines need to strengthen its military capabilities by inviting Americans to teach us how to manage our own affairs. And we thought Mark Twain and Mt. Pinatubo were quite successful cases in point in making us realize that we don't need external assistance from developed economies. After more than a year as president, people only remembered the photo-ops she did (most famous was her pose with the members of her Cabinet a la "Men in Black"), her dog-like support for George Bush and her mandate to cut state subsidy for education, health and social welfare while retaining the budget allotted for military operations. To a certain degree I admire her steadfast determination to quell terrorism with an admirable authoritarianism similar to Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew, but I don't think she realizes that much of the roots of insurgency, banditry and kidnapping in Mindanao can all be traced in the very government she is heading. She alienated a lot of people, most notably her vice president Tito Guingona because of her pro-US stance. Guingona's brand of nationalism is quite different from Gloria's. He is for the respect of the dignity of the Filipino people (he harks back to the time of great Filipino statesmen like Lorenzo Tanada, Claro M. Recto and Jose Diokno). Gloria's sense of nationalism is not necessarily less patriotic just because she takes the more unpopular side, but she should learn to listen to people more and not just devote time having pictures of herself planting rice with the indigenous peoples of Banawe, playing golf with a major foreign inesvtor, dancing in a fiesta carnival in one rural town, or attend funerals of high profile people. She should be careful not to make herself another dictator like Ferdinand Marcos and declare Martial Law. She alienated her former education secretary Raul Roco. Now, Roco is consistently topping "who is your choice for president in 2004?" surveys. This guy has a good track record as senator, but who knows what good people do when they are given powers by the people? In today's paper, Linggoy Alcuaz, a member of the elite, once again launched his ultra-effective "punctuation" ammunition. Its the question mark (?) punctuation he is making popular nowadays. He was instrumental in making people rebel against Estrada by urging people to show their disgust by flashing an exclamation point (!) everywhere they go. Now, Alcuaz, who helped Gloria became president after the bloodless revolution that ousted Estrada January 2001, is launching "?" to question Gloria's competence as a leader. If this will become effective, many people might start regarding Gloria more critically than ever and may lead to small protest rallies that threaten to be of EDSA-like proportions when fully harnessed. Meanwhile the other "presidentiables" also a venomous lot, are ready for a kill. Whoever wrests power away from Gloria first becomes President. Right now we don't have massive demonstrations similar to that in 1983 when Benigno Aquino was assassinated and his widow Cory Aquino became president, nor do we have rallies similar to that in the January 2001 ouster of Estrada, but next year is particularly interesting to watch. As I am preparing my doctoral application in the US, I cant help but feel that at least for the next 4-5 years I will not be worrying about my country on a day-to-day basis (that is if I do get admittted in this very competitive field I want to enter). Personally, I dont think Gloria will win, but despite the mostly negative things I ascribe to her (or to any president who happens to be there) I still feel that given time, her type of governance may be one of the best in recent decades. I have a feeling, too that she will best be remembered when she is no longer there as president. Joseph in Manila
