Is It Too Late to Save the World? The Worldwatch Institute, a Washington-based think tank, has issued its 2003 State of the World Report, suggesting that time is running out to save mankind from ultimate poverty and hunger. They claim that the longer we wait, the longer no remedial action is taken, the greater will be the degree of misery and biological impoverishment that mankind will suffer.
Earth's population doubled in the 40-year period from 1960 to 2000, from 3 billion to 6 billion. In the last two years, the population has grown another third of a billion people. That offers the possibility of a doubling time of only 27 years to reach 12 billion. There is no reason to believe that time is on our side. We have reached the point of the exponential curve. Earth's population could even reach 12 billion by 2020. What that would do to our economy and ecology is breathtaking. Paul Brown, environment correspondent for The Guardian, warns that the human race has only one or two generations to pull back from the brink of disaster. Earth's resources are running out. Pollution, along with the destruction of natural areas, threatens life on this planet. It is reported that 420 million people live in countries that no longer have enough cropland to grow their own food. They have to rely on imports. A quarter of the developing world's cropland is being degraded, and the rate is increasing. The greatest threat is not a shortage of land, but a shortage of water. More than a half-billion people live in regions prone to chronic drought. In the next twenty years, that number will increase fivefold - to between 2.4 billion and 3.4 billion people. Currently, that means half of Earth's population will run out of water within 20 years. By that time, the world's population will increase exponentially, creating social and ecological instability. Global warming is accelerating and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has reached 370.9 parts per million, the highest level in human history. The global rate of ice-melt more than doubled since 1988. Sea levels could rise as much as 27cm by 2100. New fishing technologies help to locate and further exploit the dwindling fish populations of our planet. According to the report, "Toxic chemicals are being released in ever-increasing quantities, and global production of hazardous waste has reached more than 300 million tons a year." About 30% of the world's forests are being cut down at the rate of 50,000 square miles a year. The world's wetlands have been reduced by 50% over the last century. Coral reefs are suffering the effects of overfishing, pollution, diseases and rising temperatures. A quarter of the world's mammal species and 12% of the birds are in danger of extinction. Bird extinctions are running at 50 times the normal rate. The movement of "highly invasive species," like the aggressive African bees and fire ants, to new regions of the world is expected to pose problems to native species. The report says, "Mining consumes 10% of the world's energy, spews out toxic emissions, and threatens 40% of the world's undeveloped forests." These effects could be drastically reduced but, unfortunately, governments are not moving quick enough to stem the tide. The Rising Death Rate As population increases, the inevitable death rate also increases, thus leveling out the exponential growth. People will be dying of starvation as a result of drought and lack of food supplies. Tragedy will be heaped upon tragedy in the years ahead. Another crisis, which the report identifies, is in the world's cities where one-billion people seek shelter in shanty towns, often on hillsides, flood plains, in rubbish dumps or downstream of industrial polluters. The inhabitants of these settlements live in constant threat of natural disasters and diseases. Life-span will be shortened as living conditions worsen. One of the great challenges for governments is to help their poorest citizens feel secure in their own homes, make a living and improve their environment. Around 1.2 billion people live in absolute poverty - surviving on less than a dollar a day. Malaria already claims 7,000 lives daily. HIV related deaths are increasing in Africa and India. For the first time since China's great famine claimed 30 million lives in 1959-61, rising death rates are slowing world population growth. Within the foreseeable future, more people will be dying of starvation than from any other killer - be it disease or war. There are two areas where death rates are currently rising - Africa and India. Together, they make up nearly 2 billion people, a third of the human race. The two primary causes of death in these regions are starvation and AIDS. Today, India has more HIV patients than any other nation in the world. Africa has the second largest number of AIDS patients. In some African countries upwards to 80 percent of the population is infected. Worldwatch Institute has identified three problems that threaten to drive the death rate up - HIV, water depletion, and shrinking croplands. Of these threats, the HIV virus is the first to spiral out of control. The sexually transmitted disease will claim more lives in the 21st century than World War II did in the last century. AIDS and HIV are estimated to infect 25 percent of the adult populations of Africa's Swaziland, Zimbabwe, Nambia, Botswana, and Zambia. These are predicted to die within the next ten years. In India, an estimated four million people, or one percent of adults, have been infected with the HIV virus - more than any other nation. The virus has a potential to spread rapidly through the population unless the government moves quickly to stop it. According to Worldwatch, "In some countries, the HIV virus is reversing gains in life expectancy made in the last several decades. For example, in Botswana, life expectancy has fallen from 62 years in 1990 to 44 years in 1998. In Zimbabwe, it has fallen from 61 years in 1993 to 49 years in 2000 and could drop to 40 years in 2010." Water Depletion Another severe problem that threatens life on this planet is the depletion of fresh water supplies. As populations spiral upward, the underground water tables are dropping. Many regions face severe drought. Deserts are growing. Forests are being cut down and the land they leave behind is wasting away. Since forty percent of all vegetable and grain food supplies come from irrigated land, a failing water supply creates sever food shortages. Many countries are facing water shortages in the twenty-first century, especially India, whose population passed one-billion in May 2002. They are currently expanding by 18 million babies per year. Water withdrawals now double the environments ability to resupply the aquifer. Half of India's grain harvest comes from irrigated land. Worldwatch reports, "In a country where 53 percent of all children are already malnourished and underweight, a shrinking harvest could increase hunger-related deaths." While AIDS takes its toll on young adults, hunger claims mostly infants and children. Shrinking Cropland Another threat hanging over the world is shrinking croplands. Some nations already depend upon imported food. Eventually, the food will simply not be available to those nations. First, increased costs will drain those nations of their economic cash flows, and someday, the exporting nations will not be able to supply food at any price. Among the countries where shrinking croplands threaten food supplies are Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Pakistan. Nigeria's population will increase from its present 111 million to a projected 244 million by 2050, while its grain-land per person will stay the same. That means each person will have less than half the current supply. Pakistan is expected to grow from its current 146 million to 345 million by 2050. By that time, each person will be dependent upon a piece of grain-land the size of a tennis court. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan already import 70 percent of their grain. Water supplies are fixed by nature. They cannot be increased. On the other hand, they can be depleted by an ever-increasing population. This is also true of croplands. Spokesmen for Worldwatch say, "The mystery is our failure to respond to the threats associated with continuing population growth." The UN appears helpless to solve these problems. Instead, the UN is telling these countries that family planning is the only answer. At the UN's Conference on Population and Development held in Cairo in 1994, it was estimated that the yearly cost of providing such "health services" would be $17 billion in 2000 and would rise to $22 billion by 2015. In the years ahead, the cost will continue to rise. And who will pay? Well, several "industrial countries" agreed to provide one-third of the funds, with "developing countries" providing the remaining two-thirds. According to Worldwatch, President Bush has decided to withdraw all funding for the UN Population Fund because of the abortion issue. President Bush is against funding abortions, even if it is done in other countries under the sponsorship of the United Nations. Praise The Lord! The world is facing a series of problems beyond its ability to solve. And it is all related to population growth. Assume that the average family has 4 children who later have families of their own, and that each set of parents lives to see all their grandchildren. For these conditions which are not at all unreasonable, the population at the end of 5 generations would be 96, after 10 generations, 3,070; after 15 generations, 98,300; after 20 generations, 3,150,000; and after 30 generations, 3,220,000,000. In one more generation (31) the total would increase to 6.5 billion. Indeed, mankind could not have evolved over millions of years. After the Great Flood, four couples have produced our current population right on schedule. Furthermore, the only hope for our planet is the return of Jesus Christ - soon! Courtesy : J. R. Church Rgds/-GS/Muscat =============================================================================== This mail is generated from JOYnet, a Jesus Youth mailing list. For more info on the list visit http://www.jesusyouth.org/joynet To unsubscribe from the list send a mail to [EMAIL PROTECTED] To subscribe to the list visit http://www.jesusyouth.org/joynet/join In case of any issue related to the mailing list contact [EMAIL PROTECTED] ===============================================================================
