-----Original Message----- From: Bertil Haggman [SMTP:[email protected]] Sent: Tuesday, February 10, 1998 7:45 PM To: [email protected] Subject: EJ and Technical Development
"Jede Jahrtausendwende bringt apokalyptische
Visionen - diesmal, dem Zeitalter entsprechend,
technischer Natur." (p.111)
"Die Ruestung der Titanen ist vor allem
technischer Natur" (p.120)
Juenger on his essays: "Allen Essays gemeinsam ist
die Auseindersetzung mit dem Fortschritt, speziell
mit der Uebermacht der Technik, die unser
Jahrhundert auf allen Gebieten in immer rascherer
Folge ueberwaeltigt." (p.190)
Quotes from _Siebzig verweht V_ (Stuttgart: Klett-
Cotta 1997).
Taking the liberty of placing these quotes against
the background of some recent developments in the
technical field. Comments welcome from
listmembers.
British Professor Kevin Warwick, Reading
University, caught the eyes and ears of the the
world financial elite recently at the Davos world
conference on politics and economy with his thesis
that humans will soon loose their monopoly as the
only intelligent creature on earth.
- I think that within 20 - 30 years we will
experience machines that think better in their
special fields than humans. Then the machine will
be the dominating creation on earth. (Source:
Aftenposten, Oslo, 8 February, 1998).
Professor Warwick's new book _March of the
Machines_ (1997) is an apocalyptic vision of a
world where we become slaves to machines.
Artificial intelligence, an overview of robotics
research and experimentation in academic
institutions and technology's prominence as a
theme within fictional writing are all part of
Warwick's study of how rapidly and - he argues -
uncontrollably machines are beginning to engineer
the human race instead of the other way around.
Are machines always not just agents? A comparison with Zapparoni is obvious
: he also aims to engineer the human race but
he uses the machines to effect his plans. (I am of course not making any
judgement on the relative benevolence of the two masters. Zapparoni's
intentions remain, at least to this reader, ambiguous. )
Warwick himself has said that in writing the book
he wanted to show the following:
We humans are presently the dominant life form on
Earth mainly because of our overall intelligence.
It is possible for machines to become more
intelligent than humans in the reasonably near
future.
Machines will then become the dominant life form
on earth.
Of course replication and adaptation to changing environments is also in the
machines capacity... Junger's words are skeptical: "Unfortunately, robots
capable of manufacturing robots do not yet exist. That would be of the
philosopher's stone, the squaring of the circle." Glass Bees
Various robots have been designed and built in
order to prove and demonstrate important aspects
of machine intelligence, such as learning,
communication and individual behaviour, which is
presented in the book.
Warwick is undoubtedly one of the world's leading
expert in cybernetics, and his views are not just
to be brushed off as speculation. In the book he
unveils the first robots that can learn,
communicate with each other and reprogramme
themselves - and warns that future generations
will rule the world.
Even the most conservative estimates indicate that
in the early part of the next century
computational power will be greater than that of
the human brain. Last year the world chess
champion won a tournament against the world's most
powerful chess computer - but next year?
Advancements in robotics, particularly in optical
and biological systems are also speeding up
intelligent machines' abilities to move, operate
and be effective in the everyday world. Within the
next 10 to 50 years artificial intelligence
systems will have been developed - not only at
Kevin Warwick's cybernetics department at Reading
University, but also, for instance, in Japan.
These will be not only more intelligent than
humans but also exhibit a significant number of
advantages; they will be faster, more reliable,
quicker to learn and more robust.
Will the robots of the future treat us as we
currently treat other creatures - with human
farms, human pets and human zoos? This may be the
best we can hope for.
From The Glass Bees :
"In this place, however, a mind was at work to negate the image of a free and
intact man. The same mind had devised this insult: it intended to rely on man
power in the same way that it had relied on horsepower. It wanted units equal
and divisible, and for that purpose man had to be destroyed as the horse had
already been destroyed."
The obvious difference here is that it is not the machines per se that
subjugate Man but the machines in the hands of Zapparoni. The quoted passage is
perhaps the only one that I find terrifying in this book - truly terrifying.
The only hope in this case would be that Zapparoni is a benefactor of Man.
With reference to our enslavement to machine masters, this passage from the
Glass Bees describing Zap's publicity machine invites comparison:
" Now that we are able to enter apparatuses and leave parts of ourselves in
them - for instance, our voice and our image - we enjoy certain advantages of
the antique slave system without its drawbacks. If anyone understood this, it
was Zapparoni, the connoisseur and developer of automatons as objects of play,
entertainment and luxury."
Here the master is still the man and the slave the machine. I am convinced that
this relationship is possible at whatever level of future technology. Many
might become slaves to the machines or at least slaves to the masters of the
machines, but if someone can create a machine, then someone must exist to
master the machine. As Junger might have put it, we must learn to ride.
Kevin Warwick refutes the sceptics, not only by
questioning their assumptions and prejudices about
what should be considered as intelligence and
consciousness, but also by revealing what he has
achieved, building robots that communicate in
their own language, share experiences, teach each
other lessons and behave as they wish with regard
to human beings.
Funny that I can't think of a single instance in Junger's writing where the
possibility of an emerging autonomous and superior machine realm is speculated
upon. The transfiguration of technology into a different quality, analogous to
the transition from fetus to newborn, is often present in Junger's works, but I
don't think the Creation of a new machine realm of Beings was ever part of this
vision. Again, it is technology in someone's hands that is so powerful. As a
vision of the future of Man and Machine, I prefer the meta-technological
Titanic Underworld in Eumeswil to Warwick's autonomous machine empire.
He makes an urgent plea for an
international anti-proliferation treaty if we are
to stand any chance of preventing the terrifying
scenarios he describes.
Warwick's attitude, at least from what I have read here, brings to mind the
machine-stormers whose resurgence Junger postulates for the 21st century.
Warfare in the 21st century will seemingly be far
from the trench warfare of World War I Juenger
participated in. The idea of close engagement is
fading.
Instead long range missiles will probably destroy
air defenses and other key infrastructure.
Inexpensive platforms will be needed to field
large number of smaller missiles or other
projectiles. Thus a new "arsenal ship" is
developed in the United States. It would be partly
submerged to avoid detection, will cos les than a
fifth of an aircraft carrier and the crew would be
less than 50 people.
"Information warfare" will be used to wreck the
enemy's computing, financial, telecoms and traffic
control systems. Relevant "weapons" in this war
would be computer viruses, electro-magnetic
pulses, microwave beams and well-placed bombs to
smash satellites.
Disinformation will be used on "the battlefield"
to mislead the enemy with decoys. UAV's (Unmanned
Aerial Vehicles) will be used in a battlefield
virtually without people.
As usual EJ may have been right all along. If in
peace and war this is what we will experience his
prognosis could have been correct since the 1920s.
Can man really control the technical development
in the 21st century ?
Greetings
Bertil Haggman
Very interesting posting - will have to read the original.
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