Where do we go from here ??? The Greek debt crisis has entered a crucial stage: new proposals for Greek reforms have been welcomed by Eurozone leaders and have raised hopes that a deal can be struck to stop Greece defaulting on its debt. Greece needs to repay a €1.6 billion loan to the International Monetary Fund by the end of the month. Failure to do so could lead to the country leaving the euro. How did it come to this? The following graphic (courtesy of Reuters Graphics) charts Greece’s 10-year government bond yield and average credit rating since 2009, along with key moments that show how the crisis has unfolded. The question of how to save Greece <http://t.sidekickopen09.com/e1t/c/5/f18dQhb0S7lC8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9nMJN7t5XX4RrRJ0W3LyBlq3M2z18W4XHqpM56dHcqf3wwXv802?t=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2Flive%2Fgreek-debt-crisis-live-updates%2F&si=4818764826673152&pi=87fa6a94-0b09-4aaf-b6e9-2cb6109372f6>, debated for more than five years, is the European Union’s recurring nightmare. After the country’s citizens voted to reject the terms of a new bailout by international creditors, Greece risks having to leave the 19-nation eurozone and abandoning the shared euro currency, a move that could destabilize the region and reverberate around the globe.
1. What’s the latest? Frustrated European leaders gave Greece until Sunday to reach a bailout agreement <http://t.sidekickopen09.com/e1t/c/5/f18dQhb0S7lC8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9nMJN7t5XX4RrRJ0W3LyBlq3M2z18W4XHqpM56dHcqf3wwXv802?t=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2015%2F07%2F08%2Fbusiness%2Finternational%2Fgreece-debt-eurozone-meeting.html&si=4818764826673152&pi=87fa6a94-0b09-4aaf-b6e9-2cb6109372f6> after an emergency summit on Tuesday ended without the Athens government offering a substantive new proposal to resolve its debt crisis. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's government on Thursday agreed to meet <http://t.sidekickopen09.com/e1t/c/5/f18dQhb0S7lC8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9nMJN7t5XX4RrRJ0W3LyBlq3M2z18W4XHqpM56dHcqf3wwXv802?t=http%3A%2F%2Fbit.ly%2F1CstrRZ&si=4818764826673152&pi=87fa6a94-0b09-4aaf-b6e9-2cb6109372f6>most of the terms demanded by its creditors, and it requested a three-year bailout of 53.5 billion euros, or $59 billion, as a starting point for talks about possible debt relief. Greece’s membership of the euro hangs by a gossamer thread after the victory for the no side in the country’s referendum. The cash machines are running out of money and the economy is in freefall. The fate of the home of democracy is not in its own hands. If it chooses to do so, the European Central Bank could force Athens to default on its debts and issue its own currency on Monday morning by withdrawing emergency support for the Greek banking system. That looks unlikely. The ECB has so far avoided taking overtly political decisions during this crisis, so it will avoid pulling the plug while talks are still going on between Greece and its creditors, and Athens wants talks to resume immediately. Greece is on track to giving a resounding No to the proposals from its creditors There are, though, a number of ways events could play out. Almost every European leader of note sought last week to put the frighteners on the Greek people, warning them that a victory for “no” meant leaving the single currency. Angela Merkel, François Hollande, Matteo Renzi and the rest now have to put up or shut up. More than likely they will shut up, at least for now. Emergency assistance for Greece will continue while the troika of the European commission, the ECB and the International Monetary Fund sees how events in Greece unfold. Despite the decisive result, Greece’s eurozone partners will not offer notably softer terms than those that were on the table when Tsipras walked out of negotiations just over a week ago. Merkel, for one, would be in serious political trouble if she did. The temptation for the creditors could be to let the Greeks sweat a bit, to see if a couple of weeks of a cashless economy can do what the referendum could not: effect regime change. Tsipras would be under pressure to resign and call fresh elections if the economic news worsens, and that might result in the election of a government more amenable to the rest of Europe. But playing it long is risky. Greece might be forced out of the euro before Tsipras gets round to resigning, so desperate is its economic plight. What the creditors should do is to respect the result of the referendum, realise that they have to give Greece something in order to prevent the crisis escalating out of control, and recognise that debt relief must be an explicit part of a funding package that will see the eurozone’s weakest member through the next couple of years. Put simply, they should try a bit less stick and a bit more carrot. Whether they will do so remains to be seen. Indeed, the relentless mishandling of Greece ever since the crisis first flared up in 2010 suggests that blunder will follow blunder. It doesn’t help that relations between Greece and the other 18 members of the eurozone are now so sour. The chances of Greece leaving the euro by mistake, just as Lehman Brothers went bust by mistake in 2008, are reasonably high. All options currently remain open. Greece could do what Cyprus did: default on some of its debts while staying in the euro. Tsipras could decide to accept the tax increases and the pension cuts demanded by the creditors while receiving only minor and vague concessions on debt relief. Greece could have run out of money and be out of the euro within 24 hours. Some things though are clear. Firstly, the Greeks have said no to austerity rather than to membership of the euro. Tsipras does not have a mandate to bring back the drachma, even if that is where this all ends. 1. What happens next? That’s the billion-euro question. Greek citizens decidedly rejected the terms of an international bailout in a referendum last weekend. The Greek government’s victory in the referendum, however, settled little, since the creditors’ offer was technically no longer on the table. All 28 European Union leaders will now gather at a summit on Sunday <http://t.sidekickopen09.com/e1t/c/5/f18dQhb0S7lC8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9nMJN7t5XX4RrRJ0W3LyBlq3M2z18W4XHqpM56dHcqf3wwXv802?t=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2015%2F07%2F08%2Fbusiness%2Finternational%2Fgreece-debt-eurozone-meeting.html&si=4818764826673152&pi=87fa6a94-0b09-4aaf-b6e9-2cb6109372f6> for what has been described as a final chance to resolve the Greek crisis. The next major deadline for Greece is in late July, when a 3.5 billion euro payment that Greece owes the European Central Bank comes due. The E.C.B. on Monday said it would continue to make 89 billion euros, or about $98.4 billion <http://t.sidekickopen09.com/e1t/c/5/f18dQhb0S7lC8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9nMJN7t5XX4RrRJ0W3LyBlq3M2z18W4XHqpM56dHcqf3wwXv802?t=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2Flive%2Fgreek-debt-crisis-live-updates%2Feuropean-central-bank-cautiously-agrees-to-keep-helping-greek-banks&si=4818764826673152&pi=87fa6a94-0b09-4aaf-b6e9-2cb6109372f6>, in emergency loans available to Greek banks. It is enough to keep the banks from failing but not enough to prevent them from running out of cash that they can issue to depositors within a few days. If there is no international bailout program in place by the July deadline, and little chance of such a program being in the works, the central bank at that point would probably have to finally take Greek banks off life support. Many analysts say Greece cannot miss that payment without leaving the eurozone. 2. Did Greece default on its debt? When borrowers — whether they are countries, companies or individuals — do not pay their debts on time, they are in default. For practical purposes, then, Greece — which on Tuesday failed to make a scheduled debt repayment <http://t.sidekickopen09.com/e1t/c/5/f18dQhb0S7lC8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9nMJN7t5XX4RrRJ0W3LyBlq3M2z18W4XHqpM56dHcqf3wwXv802?t=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2015%2F07%2F01%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Fgreece-alex-tsipras-debt-emergency-bailout.html&si=4818764826673152&pi=87fa6a94-0b09-4aaf-b6e9-2cb6109372f6> of about 1.5 billion euros, or $1.7 billion, to the International Monetary Fund — has defaulted. The I.M.F., however, does not use the term default. It instead places countries that miss their payments in what it calls arrears <http://t.sidekickopen09.com/e1t/c/5/f18dQhb0S7lC8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9nMJN7t5XX4RrRJ0W3LyBlq3M2z18W4XHqpM56dHcqf3wwXv802?t=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2015%2F07%2F01%2Fbusiness%2Finternational%2Fgreece-is-placed-in-arrears-as-the-imf-spells-default.html&si=4818764826673152&pi=87fa6a94-0b09-4aaf-b6e9-2cb6109372f6> . Semantics aside, missing the payment might lead to a situation in which other large Greek debts are classified as being in default. A default, even when it is not called one, is an event that can have serious repercussions for a country’s economy and relations with other nations. Defaults can upset financial markets, create uncertainty for other lenders, and generally crimp economic activity. Greece’s Creditors 3. How does the crisis affect the global financial system? In the European Union, most real decision-making power, particularly on matters involving politically delicate things like money and migrants, rests with 28 national governments, each one beholden to its voters and taxpayers. This tension has grown only more acute since the January 1999 introduction of the euro, which now binds 19 nations into a single currency zone watched over by the European Central Bank but leaves budget and tax policy in the hands of each country, an arrangement that some economists believe was doomed from the start. Since Greece’s debt crisis began in 2010, most international banks and foreign investors have sold their Greek bonds and other holdings, so they are no longer vulnerable to what happens in Greece. (Some private investors who subsequently plowed back into Greek bonds, betting on a comeback, regret that decision.) Secondly, the referendum result means both economic and political chaos. As Joan Hoey of the Economist Intelligence Unit put it even before the vote: “Greece is angry and fearful; divided and conflicted.” Inevitably, Greece faces a fresh period of acute economic pain. It will take months, if not years, to recover from the events of the past week, even if there is a speedy resolution to the crisis. The Greek economy has already shrunk by a quarter in the past five years. Thirdly, it is no longer possible to kick the can down the road. Any solution to the Greek crisis that involves more austerity without measures designed to get the economy growing again and to make the country’s debt sustainable will be a pyrrhic victory. The upshot would be a period of feeble growth and mounting indebtedness that would bring the possibility of Grexit back on the agenda. Sooner rather than later, in all likelihood. Fourthly, this is the most serious crisis in the euro’s relatively short history. There have been confident pronouncements that Greece has been quarantined so that there will be no knock-on effects on the rest of the eurozone. Such sentiments will be tested to the full if there is a Grexit. Share prices will inevitably take a tumble when the financial markets open for business, but more attention should be paid to the bond yields – or interest rates – on the sovereign debt of other eurozone members seen as vulnerable. The short-term problem for Merkel and Hollande is obvious. If they take a tough line in talks with Athens, they will get the blame for Greece’s departure from the single currency. The longer-term problem is perhaps even more serious. Greece has highlighted the structural weaknesses of the euro, a one-size-fits-all approach that doesn’t suit such a diverse set of countries. One solution would be to create a fiscal union to run alongside monetary union, with one eurozone finance minister deciding tax and spending decisions for all 19 nations. This, though, requires the sort of solidarity notable by its absence in recent weeks. The European project has stalled. 2015-07-10 20:22 GMT+03:00 'med sed' via Kantakji Group < [email protected]>: > الى ما يرجع السبب في الأزمة المالية اليونانية، هل للنظام الاقتصادي > الأوروبي، أم لضعف الاقتصاد اليوناني، وعدم توافقه مع اقتصاديات الدول > الأوروبية؟ وما امآلات هذه الأزمة؟ ارجو من الاساتذة افادتنا بدراسات وتحليلات > اقتصادية لهذه الأزمة؟ > تقبل الله صيام الجميع > > -- > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Kantakji Group" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected] > To unsubscribe from this group لفك الاشتراك من المجموعة أرسل للعنوان > التالي رسالة فارغة, send email to > [email protected] > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/kantakjigroup?hl=en > سياسة النشر في المجموعة: > ترك ما عارض أهل السنة والجماعة... الاكتفاء بأمور ذات علاقة بالاقتصاد > الإسلامي وعلومه ولو بالشيء البسيط، ويستثنى من هذا مايتعلق بالشأن العام على > مستوى الأمة... عدم ذكر ما يتعلق بشخص طبيعي أو اعتباري بعينه باستثناء الأمر > العام الذي يهم عامة المسلمين... تمرير بعض الأشياء الخفيفة المسلية ضمن قواعد > الأدب وخاصة منها التي تأتي من أعضاء لا يشاركون عادة، والقصد من ذلك تشجيعهم > على التفاعل الإيجابي... ترك المديح الشخصي...إن كل المقالات والآراء المنشورة > تُعبر عن رأي أصحابها، ولا تعبّر عن رأي إدارة المجموعة بالضرورة. > --- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Kantakji Group" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/kantakjigroup. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > -- *_________________________________________* *sender : Maan Barazy* *Economist - Visionary entrepreneur - Certified Shari'a Adviser and Auditor (CSAA- AAOIFI Certified) - MA PHILOSOPHY - ISLAMICSTUDIES- **MA Islamic Comparative Jurisprudence - **BS International Economics **Managing Partner And CEO of Data and Investment Consult-Lebanon – * *check our websites: datainvestconsult.com <http://t.sidekickopen09.com/e1t/c/5/f18dQhb0S7lC8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9nMJN7t5XX4RrRJ0W3LyBlq3M2z18W4XHqpM56dHcqf3wwXv802?t=http%3A%2F%2Fdatainvestconsult.com%2F&si=4818764826673152&pi=87fa6a94-0b09-4aaf-b6e9-2cb6109372f6>; **smelebanon.net-EBUSINESSLEBANON.NET <http://t.sidekickopen09.com/e1t/c/5/f18dQhb0S7lC8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9nMJN7t5XX4RrRJ0W3LyBlq3M2z18W4XHqpM56dHcqf3wwXv802?t=http%3A%2F%2Fsmelebanon.net-ebusinesslebanon.net%2F&si=4818764826673152&pi=87fa6a94-0b09-4aaf-b6e9-2cb6109372f6>** - islamicmarkets.net <http://t.sidekickopen09.com/e1t/c/5/f18dQhb0S7lC8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9nMJN7t5XX4RrRJ0W3LyBlq3M2z18W4XHqpM56dHcqf3wwXv802?t=http%3A%2F%2Fislamicmarkets.net%2F&si=4818764826673152&pi=87fa6a94-0b09-4aaf-b6e9-2cb6109372f6>; LEBANONSTARTUPS.NET <http://t.sidekickopen09.com/e1t/c/5/f18dQhb0S7lC8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9nMJN7t5XX4RrRJ0W3LyBlq3M2z18W4XHqpM56dHcqf3wwXv802?t=http%3A%2F%2Flebanonstartups.net%2F&si=4818764826673152&pi=87fa6a94-0b09-4aaf-b6e9-2cb6109372f6> - SMEFORUMLB.COM <http://t.sidekickopen09.com/e1t/c/5/f18dQhb0S7lC8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9nMJN7t5XX4RrRJ0W3LyBlq3M2z18W4XHqpM56dHcqf3wwXv802?t=http%3A%2F%2Fsmeforumlb.com%2F&si=4818764826673152&pi=87fa6a94-0b09-4aaf-b6e9-2cb6109372f6> - SMELEBANON.NET-SMETWITS.ME <http://t.sidekickopen09.com/e1t/c/5/f18dQhb0S7lC8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9nMJN7t5XX4RrRJ0W3LyBlq3M2z18W4XHqpM56dHcqf3wwXv802?t=http%3A%2F%2Fsmelebanon.net-smetwits.me%2F&si=4818764826673152&pi=87fa6a94-0b09-4aaf-b6e9-2cb6109372f6> - ISLAMICCOMPLIANCE.COM- - capitalissuesNEWS.com <http://t.sidekickopen09.com/e1t/c/5/f18dQhb0S7lC8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9nMJN7t5XX4RrRJ0W3LyBlq3M2z18W4XHqpM56dHcqf3wwXv802?t=http%3A%2F%2Fcapitalissuesonline.com%2F&si=4818764826673152&pi=87fa6a94-0b09-4aaf-b6e9-2cb6109372f6> - DICINSTITUTE.COM <http://t.sidekickopen09.com/e1t/c/5/f18dQhb0S7lC8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9nMJN7t5XX4RrRJ0W3LyBlq3M2z18W4XHqpM56dHcqf3wwXv802?t=http%3A%2F%2Fdicinstitute.com%2F&si=4818764826673152&pi=87fa6a94-0b09-4aaf-b6e9-2cb6109372f6>* *contactus; email : **[email protected] <[email protected]>* · *Twitter : **twitter.com/maanbarazy <http://t.sidekickopen09.com/e1t/c/5/f18dQhb0S7lC8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9nMJN7t5XX4RrRJ0W3LyBlq3M2z18W4XHqpM56dHcqf3wwXv802?t=http%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fmaanbarazy&si=4818764826673152&pi=87fa6a94-0b09-4aaf-b6e9-2cb6109372f6>* · *Linkedin**: **http://www.linkedin.com/in/maanbarazy* <http://www.linkedin.com/in/maanbarazy> · *Facebook**: facebook.com/maanbarazy <http://t.sidekickopen09.com/e1t/c/5/f18dQhb0S7lC8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9nMJN7t5XX4RrRJ0W3LyBlq3M2z18W4XHqpM56dHcqf3wwXv802?t=http%3A%2F%2Ffacebook.com%2Fmaanbarazy&si=4818764826673152&pi=87fa6a94-0b09-4aaf-b6e9-2cb6109372f6>* · *Accademia.edu : **http://independent.academia.edu/maanbarazy <http://independent.academia.edu/maanbarazy>* · *Slideshare: **http://www.slideshare.net/maanbarazy* <http://www.slideshare.net/maanbarazy> -- -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Kantakji Group" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group لفك الاشتراك من المجموعة أرسل للعنوان التالي رسالة فارغة, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/kantakjigroup?hl=en سياسة النشر في المجموعة: ترك ما عارض أهل السنة والجماعة... الاكتفاء بأمور ذات علاقة بالاقتصاد الإسلامي وعلومه ولو بالشيء البسيط، ويستثنى من هذا مايتعلق بالشأن العام على مستوى الأمة... عدم ذكر ما يتعلق بشخص طبيعي أو اعتباري بعينه باستثناء الأمر العام الذي يهم عامة المسلمين... تمرير بعض الأشياء الخفيفة المسلية ضمن قواعد الأدب وخاصة منها التي تأتي من أعضاء لا يشاركون عادة، والقصد من ذلك تشجيعهم على التفاعل الإيجابي... ترك المديح الشخصي...إن كل المقالات والآراء المنشورة تُعبر عن رأي أصحابها، ولا تعبّر عن رأي إدارة المجموعة بالضرورة. --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Kantakji Group" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/kantakjigroup. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
