* *The latest State-wise estimates suggest that the country’s sugar production in the current 2008-09 season (October-September) will not touch even 160 lakh tonnes (lt), compared to the previous year’s 263.28 lt.
Industry sources say that Maharashtra’s output this time will be only 47 lt (against 90.65 lt in 2007-08), while similarly falling for Uttar Pradesh (41 lt versus 73.19 lt), Karnataka (17 lt versus 28.97 lt), Tamil Nadu (17 lt versus 21.91 lt), Gujarat (10 lt versus 13.66 lt), Andhra Pradesh (6.5 lt versus 13.35 lt), and Punjab-Haryana (5 lt versus 11.33 lt). “One cannot rule out production going below even 150 lt,” the sources noted. With opening stocks of 100 lt and consumption expected at 220-230 lt, the season will close with stocks of 30-40 lt, which will suffice for hardly two months of consumption. And since crushing for the new season will only start from end-November, the sugar availability situation would be particularly precarious in the main festival season. “By all accounts, we would need to import at least 20 lt this year, but the irony is nobody wants to in the current environment where there is uncertainty both on the exchange rate as well as the government policy. The recent measures at imposing stock holding and turnover limits on traders indicate that the Government will not settle for a retail price above Rs 25 a kg,” the sources said. Traders are not lifting much sugar from mills following the imposition of stock limits. At the same time, mills are not contracting any fresh imports of raw sugar for processing. “The sugar being sold now is entirely from the pipeline. Once the pipeline is exhausted, the traders will have to replenish their stocks from the mills, which could push up prices again as the underlying supply fundamentals assert themselves,” they added. B.Karthick Research Analyst WWW.KENCES1.BLOGSPOT.COM <http://www.kences1.blogspot.com/> --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Kences1" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/kences1?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
