Bank Stocks Outlook for the week (21-24.08.2012)

Stocks of finance companies and banks are expected to move in line with the
trend in the market next week. We recommend investors buy shares of private
banks. They suggest investors exit stocks of public sector banks at every
rise because the asset quality of state-owned banks is deteriorating.

Shares of public sector banks have under-performed those of private banks
by 20-25% over the past six months.

We reiterate our cautious stance given concerns of slower economic growth,
loan growth, and higher NPLs (non-performing loans). We retain our
preference for private banks over PSUs (public sector undertakings) on
higher growth, profitability, and relatively better asset quality.

Shares of public sector banks are under pressure also because of their
falling rate of return on equity, and their inability to tap the capital
market freely due to government holding.

Since PSU banks are not generating enough internal capital and are also
constrained in their ability to tap the capital market freely, their Tier-I
capital ratios remain low, despite the recent capital infusion by the
government. This is a matter of concern since it leaves them with little
capital to cover future losses and would also constrain their growth. BRICS
Securities has recommended investors buy shares of Axis Bank, ICICI Bank,
HDFC Bank, and Bank of Baroda.

 By RUPEE DESK  [email protected]

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