On Sat, 2005-03-05 at 18:39, Robert Donovan wrote: > RBW1 wrote: > > >On Sat, 2005-03-05 at 16:54, Robert Donovan wrote: > > > > > >>RBW1 wrote: > >> > >> > >> > >>>Heh, interesting take... > >>> > >>>The good news... > >>>History is NOT over! > >>>http://tinyurl.com/3kkma > >>> > >>>RBW > >>> > >>> > >>> > >>> > >>> > >>After reading this article, the word that keeps coming to my mind is > >>balderdash. Even if one accepts, as the reason for Linux's lack of > >>widespread acceptance, the author's premise that it was the Linus > >>Torvalds as single-handed open-source god myth, which I was never aware > >>of, even during the height of the .com bubble when such rhetoric got > >>positively ethereal, I have yet to have any of my customers to whom I > >>have managed to get to try open source solutions base the decision to > >>try it on political correctness or the history of Linus Torvalds. They > >>choose to try it, or not, based on how well it demonstrates an ability > >>to meet their needs at reasonable cost(one of those needs, at least > >>initially, being interoperability with Windows). It is the fact that > >>open source products(Linux or otherwise) can deliver on those fronts > >>that is fueling wider acceptance of Linux. The author does finally get > >>around to this in the article, but the idea that Linux needs to be > >>politically correct, or that some myth about how Torvalds created it > >>needs to be abandoned, in order to succeed strikes me as ludicrous. In > >>my experience, if there is any perception that has changed about Linux, > >>it's that linus is so hard to use that you have to be a dyed-in-the-wool > >>computer nerd, programmer, or IT expert to be able to use it. I think > >>the big "social tipping point" is that people are finally realizing that > >>Unix/Linux is not hard. It's just not Windows. That coupled with the > >>seeping awareness of what it is possible to do for little or no cost in > >>the way of desktop publishing(Scribus), groupware(Novell edirectory, > >>group-office, egroupware), Databases(MySQL), video > >>conferencing/streaming(H323 server/gnomeeting, Open LDAP, ffmpeg, VLC), > >>photo editing/graphics(Gimp, Blender, POV-Ray) and the more mundane > >>office stuff like word processing, spreadsheets, and > >>presentations(OpenOffice.org, StarOffice) is tipping the balance. That's > >>just my opinion, and I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure I'm right. > >> > >>Robert Donovan > >> > >> > > > >I think you are correct too, but could he just (in a round about way) be > >saying the "tipping point" will have some element of "sizzle" to go with > >the steak you mentioned? > > > >It is my experience so far that the masses will use what they are used > >to long after it is demonstrably not their best choice... > > > >And up until something sexy says, "That's hot" (to which I respond, > >"please shoot me ;^). > > > >RBW > > > > > > > That is possible, but I a.) hope not, and b.) hope and think he's wrong. > As a former full-time and current part-time commodities trader, I have > learned to have a healthy suspicion just that sort of sizzle(Consider > that an echo of your "just shoot me" sentiment.). Furthermore, that kind > of "that's hot" reaction rarely comes at the beginning of a major > "social shift"(I really hate that phrase. I'll just say trend.), but > rather near the end of one. > > You tend first to get what I think crowd psychologists refer to as the > early adoptors, in the case of Linux, the ones who started using Linux > before it was cool or most people knew it existed. This list probably > encompasses a lot of that group. Then you get a phenomenon called > breakout awareness(at least that's what a number of traders I know call > it) This is the next tier of people who come in after the early adapters > have been laying the groundwork for what will later be recognized as a > major trend. Probably a lot of folks on this list are in that group as > well. The breakout awareness crowd adds it's push to that of the early > adopters and you begin to see the next phase, mainstream acceptance. > This is the period during which major progress takes place and major > adoption of the product(eg Linux) or idea(Open Source) ensues largely > out of the awareness of those in the general public. It is also when you > first start hearing one-line media reports about the new "latest thing." > > Then you get what might be called the mass acceptance stage. This is the > first period at which sizzle starts to happen, if it is to occur. You'll > see more and more media coverage. This is the stage at whch the general > public usually becomes aware of what the early adaptors have been aware > of for years or decades. > > Then you get the late adopters. These are the folks that "buy in at the > top" as we say in the trading world. In fact these are the folks who > make the top happen, because they are usually the first to take big > losses. They were waiting to see if the new thing, which wasn't really > new by the time they heard about it, was really going to take off or > not. This is where you start hearing phrases like "It's different this > time", "new paradigm", in the business world, and "They'er bigger than > the Beatles", or "He's the next Elvis" in the entertainment world, get > thrown around all too freely. It is the realm of tulip mania, the south > seas bubble, the dot com bubble, and the inevitable crashes that follow > them. Anyone heard much from the Spice Girls or New Kids On the Block > lately, both of whom were regularly compared to the Beatles in all of > the entertainment press about three to six months before they dropped > off the face of the Earth. > > While I've laid this out in a very nice neat progression, there is a lot > of overlap; timeframe is highly variable in each stage, and it's nearly > imposible to tell which stage you're in until after the fact. You can > also have mini frenzies in each of the various stages. Again, hard to > tell mini or major until after it happens. Perhaps the author was just > saying that we are entering what I referred to above as a breakout > awareness phase, but I still don't believe that awareness comes as a > result of shedding his presumed Linus Torvalds myth. > > Robert Donovan
Nicely put... Made me think of being in the middle of a Forrest Gump movie and not being aware of change until much later... But hopefully making the most of it all along the way. RBW -- [email protected] http://www.kernel-panic.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/kplug-list
