James G. Sack (jim) wrote:
Assuming that with IPv6, there is no (heh: or at least, less) need to be
stingy with IPs,
ISP's are in the business of selling services not giving them away.
Competition in the space of those who will actually /control/ IP address
space has shown to date no inclination to provide "More for Less". Why
should they start just because they find more raw technology materials?
From what I've read recently on how crappy our Internet connections are
compared to what is actually possible right now /without moving to IPv6/
(i.e. at the tier 1 and tier 2 levels), I don't expect to see any price
breaks for as long as it's possible to artificially keep resources scarce.
Examples in other industries: diamonds are not intrinsically scarce on
the planet relative to demand. A virtual diamond monopoly imposes its
own model of scarcity.
Crude oil is not a scarcity (yet, or for the foreseeable future)
relative to demand (statistical predictions and other pulled-from-an-ass
prognostication notwithstanding). A large cartel maintains a scarcity so
as to maintain a preferred wholesale/commodity price [1].
Power distribution need not be a scarcity. In fact it seems to be a good
example of how the promise of better technology costs the
cust^H^H^Honsumer more rather than less: I'm sure everyone remembers the
promise of how nuculur power plants were going to drastically reduce our
electricity bills. The only thing that prevented that was the little
problem of paying for the construction and maintenance of those power
plants at such at rate and over such an extended period of time that it
appears to be a net loss of value. It appears those power plants were
built mainly as justification for massive rate increases.
Geothermal was even worse. We never even got power from that yet we're
still paying for the initial investment: we're literally paying for a
hole in the ground from which nothing ever came.
Or how about we look at the bridge to Coronado that was gonna change our
lives. We were supposed to pay a toll to cross that bridge only as long
as it took to pay it off. The problem was that there was never a clear
definition of "Payed off" (or was that paided off?), combined with the
government's predeliction to becoming addicted to the money brought in
by taxes and fees. That thing collected enough toll money that it should
be eight lanes by now.
There's never enough to mitigate existing problems with better
solutions, but there's always enough to pretend and promise to fix (and
theyby extend) them.
_and_ assuming that ISPs will still assign IPs, ..
Why wouldn't they? They have them, we don't. We want them. They'll sell
'em to us. Think of them as diamonds. It won't matter how many and how
fast they can dig them up, they'll still treat them as scarce and
precious - to us.
(please attack the assumptions!)
..then, what size range of IPs could an end-user expect to get?
"Why as many as you're capable of paying for, of course! It's not like
there'll be a shortage. After all, my good man, this isn't the oil
industry. Of course, you have to realize, that we have certain costs we
have to cover. You know, we paid quite a pretty penny up front to make
this new technology available for your benefit. You wouldn't begrudge us
the ability to recover those costs, now would you? Why it's only fair!
But in time this new miracle technology will have paid for itself and
you're sure to see lower costs. Naturally though, it will take time.
"Now, how many IP addresses would you like, and will that be credit or
cash?"
[snip]
..jim
[1] Oddly, about 80% of our oil comes from Canada. Another 10% or so
from Venezuela. I'm wondering why we haven't invaded Canada (or are we
pursuing a more diplomatic solution similar to North Korea and Iran?).
Of course there *is* a refining shortage. And no incentive to build any.
Oil companies are quite happy with their existing business model. Why
mess with a good thing with stupid ideas like capital reinvestment.
After all, that can't really be good for profits.
And don't think that bio-fuel or hydrogen cells are going to help. Those
fuel sources will only replace oil cartels with hydrogen cartels and
biomass cartels: same shit, different people.
Forget about doing it yourself either. You can bet there are IP bombs
aplenty in any of that technology. For instance, just try going into the
business of growing cotton, peanut, corn or wheat. If you show up on the
radar of the big players, you'll be served faster than a twelve-year-old
by the RIAA: "Sir, it has come to our attention that your crops have
been contaminated with a substantial amount of our patented DNA on which
we spent millions developing. However, we would be more than happy to
talk with you about what we feel is a very generous licensing
arrangement for your use of our IP".
--
Best Regards,
~DJA.
--
[email protected]
http://www.kernel-panic.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/kplug-list
